Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Monaco v Lille
Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Why
what stands behind the numbersMonaco are 1st of 18 with 14 points from six matches; Lille are 2nd with 13 points from six matches.
Monaco are unbeaten in their last five (three wins and two draws), while Lille have three wins, a draw and a defeat in their last five.
In their last ten meetings Monaco won two, Lille five, with three draws.
What the result changes
each side's season chances now, and after each result| Now | ASM win | Draw | LIL win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Monaco | ||||
| Title | 10% | 13% | 9% | 7% |
| Top 4 | 60% | 68% | 58% | 52% |
  Lille | ||||
| Title | 4% | 3% | 3% | 6% |
| Top 4 | 39% | 32% | 38% | 51% |
Worth knowing
Facts checked in our data, each with the period or the sample it stands on.Lille have scored in each of their last 9 away Ligue 1 matches (15 goals), their longest such run since February 2021.
sample 9 · since February 2026
Monaco are unbeaten in their last 6 Ligue 1 matches (W4 D2), their longest such run since April 2026.
sample 6 · since August 2026
Lille have won their last 3 league meetings with Monaco.
sample 3 · since February 2025
With a Lille win, Vesta's chance of Lille finishing in the top four would move from 39% to 51%.
Monaco have won 15 of their 45 league meetings with Lille since 2001-02 (W15 D15 L15).
sample 45 · since November 2001
With a Lille win, Vesta's chance of Monaco finishing in the top four would move from 60% to 52%.
Likely line-ups appear once Vesta has the squads of both sides, in the days before kick-off.
The players
Every player of both squads: Vesta's chances for this match beside his league season. Tap a column to sort. Monaco
26 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Dier CB | 32 | 540 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.68 | 4 | 2 | 0.19 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 36 | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Lamine Camara DM | – | 540 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 4 | 4 | 0.08 |
| Sadibou Sané CB | – | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 |
| Flávio Nazinho LB | – | 534 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.54 | 1 | 6 | 0.15 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AM | 30 | 532 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0.49 | 1.53 | 7 | 11 | 0.34 |
| Denis Zakaria DM | 29 | 492 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 5 | 0 | 0.03 |
| Vanderson RB | – | 491 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.72 | 2 | 6 | 0.15 |
| Paris Brunner ST | – | 399 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2.99 | 0.35 | 16 | 5 | 0.75 |
| Stanis Idumbo Muzambo LW | – | 368 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.59 | 12 | 5 | 0.37 |
| Matthis Abline ST | – | 247 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.69 | 6 | 4 | – |
| Mamadou Coulibaly CM | – | 219 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0 | 3 | – |
| Edan Diop RM | – | 125 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Mathys Detourbet LW | – | 101 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.18 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Anis Soubeir RW | – | 72 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Jordan Teze RB | 27 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0 | 1 | – |
| Folarin Balogun ST | 25 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Safouane Benzahra | 18 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Mika Biereth ST | – | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Anssumane Fati AM | – | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Pape Cabral | – | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Ilane Touré | – | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Oumar Konaté | – | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Thilo Kehrer CB | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Mohammed Salisu CB | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi CB | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
Lille
22 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexsandro Ribeiro CB | – | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 3 | 1 | 0.03 |
| Berke Özer GK | – | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Nabil Bentaleb DM | – | 514 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 5 | 7 | 0.08 |
| Tiago Santos RB | – | 471 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.94 | 9 | 5 | 0.28 |
| Romain Perraud LB | – | 468 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 4 | 1 | 0.04 |
| Nathan Ngoy CB | 23 | 450 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AM | – | 409 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 1.53 | 8 | 10 | 0.47 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau RW | – | 326 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 |
| Olivier Giroud ST | 40 | 317 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.30 | 5 | 4 | 0.30 |
| Ethan Mbappé RW | – | 268 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.80 | 0.52 | 9 | 5 | – |
| Dilane Bakwa RW | – | 258 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 6 | 6 | – |
| Ayase Ueda ST | 28 | 222 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.43 | 0.08 | 9 | 2 | – |
| Benjamin André DM | 36 | 221 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0 | 4 | – |
| Basar Önal LW | – | 217 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.46 | 1 | 3 | – |
| Maurits Kjærgaard DM | – | 138 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.75 | 3 | 5 | – |
| Gaetan Perrin RM | – | 129 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Osame Sahraoui LW | – | 108 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.19 | 2 | 3 | – |
| Felix Correia LW | – | 94 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Nianzou Kouassi CB | – | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.13 | 1 | 1 | – |
| Calvin Verdonk LB | – | 80 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Maxima Goffi | – | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Isaac Cossier | – | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Monaco
LLWWWDWDHead to head
Every meeting in our data: the leagues since 2001-02, the European cups since 2014-15; newest first. At Monaco: 7-11-5 (won, drawn, lost). 2.3 goals a meeting.- Sun 10 May 2026Monaco 0–1 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 24 Aug 2025Lille 1–0 MonacoLigue 1
- Sat 22 Feb 2025Lille 2–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Fri 18 Oct 2024Monaco 0–0 LilleLigue 1
- Wed 24 Apr 2024Monaco 1–0 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 29 Oct 2023Lille 2–0 MonacoLigue 1
- Sun 14 May 2023Monaco 0–0 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 23 Oct 2022Lille 4–3 MonacoLigue 1
Show the other 37 meetings
- Fri 6 May 2022Lille 1–2 MonacoLigue 1
- Fri 19 Nov 2021Monaco 2–2 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 14 Mar 2021Monaco 0–0 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 6 Dec 2020Lille 2–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Sat 21 Dec 2019Monaco 5–1 LilleLigue 1
- Fri 15 Mar 2019Lille 0–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Sat 18 Aug 2018Monaco 0–0 LilleLigue 1
- Fri 16 Mar 2018Monaco 2–1 LilleLigue 1
- Fri 22 Sep 2017Lille 0–4 MonacoLigue 1
- Sun 14 May 2017Monaco 4–0 LilleLigue 1
- Sat 10 Sep 2016Lille 1–4 MonacoLigue 1
- Sun 10 Apr 2016Lille 4–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Fri 14 Aug 2015Monaco 0–0 LilleLigue 1
- Sat 24 Jan 2015Lille 0–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Sat 30 Aug 2014Monaco 1–1 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 23 Mar 2014Monaco 1–1 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 3 Nov 2013Lille 2–0 MonacoLigue 1
- Sat 9 Apr 2011Monaco 1–0 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 21 Nov 2010Lille 2–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Sun 18 Apr 2010Lille 4–0 MonacoLigue 1
- Sun 13 Dec 2009Monaco 0–4 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 22 Feb 2009Lille 2–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Sun 28 Sep 2008Monaco 0–2 LilleLigue 1
- Sat 9 Feb 2008Monaco 0–0 LilleLigue 1
- Wed 29 Aug 2007Lille 0–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Sat 21 Apr 2007Monaco 3–1 LilleLigue 1
- Sat 25 Nov 2006Lille 1–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Sun 26 Feb 2006Monaco 0–1 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 2 Oct 2005Lille 0–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Sun 1 May 2005Monaco 2–0 LilleLigue 1
- Sun 14 Nov 2004Lille 1–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Sat 14 Feb 2004Monaco 0–1 LilleLigue 1
- Sat 13 Sep 2003Lille 1–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Sat 1 Mar 2003Lille 1–3 MonacoLigue 1
- Sat 19 Oct 2002Monaco 1–1 LilleLigue 1
- Sat 13 Apr 2002Lille 1–1 MonacoLigue 1
- Wed 28 Nov 2001Monaco 2–2 LilleLigue 1
The two sides, beneath the results
The league season in 11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations.
MonacoASM
LilleLIL- League
- Ligue 1
- Ligue 1
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 1st · 14 pts from 6
- 2nd · 13 pts from 6
- Won, drawn, losthome 2-1-0 / 2-1-0 · away 2-1-0 / 2-0-1
- 4-2-0
- 4-1-1
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 1.29 11th of 18
- 1.21 13th of 18
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 1.17 5th of 18
- 1.57 11th of 18
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- +2.2 scoring · +2.0 keeping
- +1.7 scoring · +5.4 keeping
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 7.5 · 0.16
- 7.9 · 0.16
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 4-2-3-1 5 of 6
- 4-2-3-1 6 of 6
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1602 17th +5
- 1595 18th -28
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 58 49–66
10% · 60% · <1% - 54 45–63
4% · 39% · <1%
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Monaco
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play83%
- Penalties9%
- From a corner5%
- Other set pieces3%
How their 64 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Lille
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play79%
- Penalties12%
- From a corner5%
- Other set pieces2%
- Direct free kicks2%
How their 56 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Numbers to expect
Vesta's expected number for each sideEach is checked on past seasons, said against what came. The check
Every forecast for this match is published with Vesta's forecast, in the days before kick-off.
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- None published
- Match data
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues: results since 2001-02, shots and expected goals since 2014-15 (11footy's own model)
- Season simulations
- 10,000 seasons, Vesta
Monaco in the Lab Lille in the LabEvery meetingThe track record