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Arsenal v Manchester City v Liverpool
On the chances, Arsenal are the strongest of the three: +0.95 non-penalty xG difference a match in 2026-27, and an 11footy Elo of 1682. Vesta's title chances: Arsenal 40, Manchester City 57, Liverpool 1.
ArsenalPremier League · 6 matches · 15 points · Elo 1682Vesta: title 40 in 100, top four 98
Manchester CityPremier League · 6 matches · 18 points · Elo 1693Vesta: title 57 in 100, top four 99
LiverpoolPremier League · 6 matches · 9 points · Elo 1592Vesta: title 1 in 100, top four 37Number by number
a match unless said · #N = the place in its own league · the best of the three in bold| Number | Arsenal | Manchester City | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 2.50 #2 | 3.00 #1 | 1.50 #10 |
| Points the chances deserved | 2.10 #1 | 2.01 #2 | 1.51 #5 |
| Goals for | 1.67 #5 | 2.67 #2 | 1.17 #14 |
| Goals against | 0.83 #1 | 0.83 #5 | 1.17 #8 |
| xG for | 1.75 #5 | 1.99 #2 | 1.58 #10 |
| xG against | 0.80 #1 | 1.09 #3 | 1.36 #8 |
| npxG difference a match | +0.95 #1 | +0.90 #2 | +0.21 #8 |
| Shots | 13.00 #11 | 13.83 #9 | 14.83 #6 |
| Shots against | 10.67 #1 | 12.00 #6 | 12.17 #8 |
| Big chances | 1.00 #12 | 1.67 #5 | 1.00 #13 |
| Big chances against | 0.33 #1 | 0.83 #6 | 0.83 #7 |
| Set-piece xG | 0.27 #10 | 0.31 #6 | 0.45 #4 |
| Set-piece xG against | 0.26 #7 | 0.29 #12 | 0.10 #1 |
| 11footy Elo | 1682 | 1693 | 1592 |
| Vesta: final points | 77 68–86 | 79 70–88 | 59 50–68 |
| Vesta: title | 40 | 57 | 1 |
| Vesta: top four | 98 | 99 | 37 |
| Vesta: bottom three | 0 | 0 | <1 |
Every number is the league season shown, divided by the matches played (points deserved: each match played again from both sides' shots with 11footy xG). Ranks are within each side's own league, so sides of different leagues are each placed among their own; the leagues are not the same strength. Vesta's numbers are for the current season only.