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Who wins the league, and how likely?

Vesta gives Manchester City 57 in 100 to win Premier League (up 6 since Fri 16 Oct). Arsenal are next at 40 in 100; 3 sides still win it in at least 1 run in 100.

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · 10,000 runs of the season, Sat 17 Oct

FreePro adds every position's chance and the week's movers

What moved since Fri 16 Oct

changes of 3 in 100 or more in the title, top-four and bottom-three chances

• Liverpooltop four37 −20
• Chelseatop four37 +18
• Brightontop four68 +16
• Tottenhambottom three48 −13
• Manchester Unitedtop four16 −12
• Sunderlandbottom three27 +9
• Coventrybottom three43 −9
• Fulhambottom three25 +8

The projected table

ordered by Vesta's average finishing position; points range = 8 runs in 10

CSV Share view

Side	Pl	Pts	Final points	Title	Top four	Bottom three	Every position
Manchester City1st now	6	18	79 70–88	57	99	0
Arsenal2nd now	6	15	77 68–86	40	98	0
Brighton3rd now	6	13	64 55–73	3	68	<1
Liverpool9th now	6	9	59 50–68	1	37	<1
Chelsea6th now	6	10	59 50–68	1	37	<1
Manchester United13th now	6	6	54 45–63	<1	16	2
Brentford4th now	6	10	53 44–63	<1	13	2
Leeds7th now	6	9	52 43–61	<1	9	4
Everton5th now	6	10	50 41–59	<1	6	6
Bournemouth18th now	6	3	48 38–57	<1	3	12
Newcastle United11th now	6	8	48 39–57	0	3	12
Nottingham Forest15th now	6	5	47 38–56	<1	3	13
Hull8th now	6	9	46 38–55	0	2	15
Aston Villa16th now	6	5	45 36–54	0	1	22
Fulham20th now	6	2	44 35–53	0	1	25
Sunderland17th now	6	4	44 35–53	0	1	27
Ipswich10th now	6	9	43 34–51	0	<1	32
Crystal Palace12th now	6	7	42 34–51	0	1	35
Coventry14th now	6	6	41 32–50	0	<1	43
Tottenham19th now	6	3	40 31–49	0	<1	48

Goals expected over the whole seasonSeason goals

final totals, average of the runs; range = 8 runs in 10

Side	Wins	Draws	Defeats	Goals for	Goals against
Manchester City	23.8	7.7	6.5	78 69–88	41 34–48
Arsenal	23.0	8.0	7.0	68 59–77	36 29–43
Brighton	18.2	9.4	10.4	71 62–80	47 39–55
Liverpool	15.8	11.6	10.5	57 48–66	48 40–56
Chelsea	16.5	9.5	12.0	67 58–76	57 49–65
Manchester United	14.2	11.5	12.3	60 51–68	53 45–61
Brentford	13.6	12.6	11.8	59 51–68	54 45–62
Leeds	13.3	12.0	12.8	51 43–59	50 41–58
Everton	12.3	13.0	12.7	48 40–56	50 42–59
Bournemouth	12.1	11.7	14.2	54 45–62	58 50–67
Newcastle United	12.4	10.5	15.1	54 46–63	64 55–72
Nottingham Forest	12.1	10.9	15.0	48 40–57	54 45–62
Hull	11.5	11.8	14.7	47 39–55	54 46–63
Aston Villa	11.3	10.8	15.9	48 40–56	59 50–67
Fulham	11.1	10.9	16.1	49 41–57	55 47–64
Sunderland	11.2	10.0	16.8	47 39–54	58 50–67
Ipswich	11.5	8.3	18.2	48 41–56	66 57–76
Crystal Palace	11.0	9.4	17.6	50 42–58	66 57–75
Coventry	10.7	8.8	18.5	43 36–51	62 53–71
Tottenham	9.3	11.8	16.9	42 34–50	58 49–67

Vesta plays the rest of the season 10,000 times from today's table, each match drawn from its forecast for that match (the same model as every published forecast; data to Fri 16 Oct). Season projections are checked against the final tables when the season ends. How Vesta works · Premier League page

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