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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 16,408 league matches since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 25, happened 25 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches16,408each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened53 in 100Vesta said 53
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.79Vesta expected 2.83
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
0–10 in 1001,8216.87.5+0.6
10–20 in 1006,76015.815.3−0.5
20–30 in 10019,15625.725.70.0
30–40 in 1007,89034.434.0−0.3
40–50 in 1005,43544.845.4+0.6
50–60 in 1003,88454.754.5−0.2
60–70 in 1002,32564.665.0+0.4
70–80 in 1001,32574.576.2+1.7
80–90 in 10053884.082.9−1.1
90–100 in 1009092.391.1−1.2

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Bayern Munich 2-3 BochumSat 8 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga1 in 100
  2. Barcelona 0-1 LeganesSun 15 Dec 2024 · La Liga2 in 100
  3. Bayern Munich 1-2 AugsburgSat 24 Jan 2026 · Bundesliga2 in 100
  4. Bayern Munich 0-1 Werder BremenSun 21 Jan 2024 · Bundesliga3 in 100
  5. Manchester City 2-3 Crystal PalaceSat 22 Dec 2018 · Premier League3 in 100
  6. Manchester City 0-0 HuddersfieldSun 6 May 2018 · Premier League4 in 100
  7. Barcelona 1-2 Las PalmasSat 30 Nov 2024 · La Liga4 in 100
  8. Augsburg 2-1 Bayern MunichFri 19 Nov 2021 · Bundesliga4 in 100
  9. Manchester City 0-2 Wolverhampton WanderersSun 6 Oct 2019 · Premier League4 in 100
  10. Chelsea 2-3 BurnleySat 12 Aug 2017 · Premier League5 in 100
  11. Manchester City 0-2 Crystal PalaceSat 30 Oct 2021 · Premier League5 in 100
  12. Bayern Munich 1-4 VfB StuttgartSat 12 May 2018 · Bundesliga5 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Manchester City 0-0 HuddersfieldSun 6 May 2018 · home win said96 in 100
  2. Bayern Munich 2-3 BochumSat 8 Mar 2025 · home win said94 in 100
  3. Bayern Munich 3-3 FC HeidenheimSat 2 May 2026 · home win said92 in 100
  4. Bayern Munich 1-2 AugsburgSat 24 Jan 2026 · home win said91 in 100
  5. Barcelona 0-1 LeganesSun 15 Dec 2024 · home win said91 in 100
  6. Bayern Munich 2-2 Hertha BerlinFri 16 Aug 2019 · home win said91 in 100
  7. Bayern Munich 3-3 Fortuna DuesseldorfSat 24 Nov 2018 · home win said90 in 100
  8. Bayern Munich 0-1 Werder BremenSun 21 Jan 2024 · home win said90 in 100
  9. Barcelona 2-2 Celta VigoSat 2 Dec 2017 · home win said90 in 100
  10. Manchester City 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionTue 15 Dec 2020 · home win said90 in 100
  11. Bayern Munich 2-2 Mainz 05Sun 14 Dec 2025 · home win said89 in 100
  12. Liverpool 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionSun 27 Dec 2020 · home win said89 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Atletico Madrid350699628.7+70.3
Real Betis350533482.3+50.7
Juventus348709659.1+49.9
Lille326560513.4+46.6
Freiburg311436389.5+46.5
AC Milan348653609.1+43.9
Manchester United348599556.0+43.0
Real Madrid350762720.8+41.2
Lazio348611570.8+40.2
Inter348748708.2+39.8
Aston Villa272400361.9+38.1
Barcelona350793758.5+34.5
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Southampton266247301.8−54.8
Chelsea348587632.3−45.3
Toulouse250272312.0−40.0
Atalanta348619654.3−35.3
Verona304297331.8−34.8
FC Cologne243251285.2−34.2
Angers292308342.0−34.0
Athletic Club348490523.9−33.9
Fiorentina348476508.3−32.3
Eibar152170198.9−28.9
Malaga462449.1−25.1
Troyes12099123.2−24.2

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

every league match; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27Premier League60474226322.862.950.203
2026-27La Liga78495127272.713.090.191
2026-27Serie A60505727202.632.870.187
2026-27Bundesliga45535323203.303.820.218
2026-27Ligue 154475427262.822.830.213
2025-26Premier League380505026272.862.750.206
2025-26La Liga380505327242.662.690.200
2025-26Serie A380515327262.522.430.202
2025-26Bundesliga306535524253.073.240.192
2025-26Ligue 1306515025252.852.820.205
2024-25Premier League380555423243.152.930.198
2024-25La Liga380525426262.652.620.192
2024-25Serie A380525327282.632.560.188
2024-25Bundesliga306545024253.103.130.206
2024-25Ligue 1306535325202.942.980.209
2023-24Premier League380565822223.203.280.189
2023-24La Liga380515526282.702.640.183
2023-24Serie A380525326292.682.610.188
2023-24Bundesliga306565523263.193.220.190
2023-24Ligue 1306504726262.812.700.215
2022-23Premier League380545524232.912.850.199
2022-23La Liga380525426232.612.510.203
2022-23Serie A380545225262.832.560.200
2022-23Bundesliga306535224253.053.170.205
2022-23Ligue 1380525225242.852.810.201
2021-22Premier League380545524232.862.820.194
2021-22La Liga380505127292.522.500.199
2021-22Serie A380555524262.982.870.197
2021-22Bundesliga306534924243.053.120.209
2021-22Ligue 1380505126272.672.810.204
2020-21Premier League380535325222.812.690.214
2020-21La Liga380505227292.482.510.194
2020-21Serie A380545724262.973.050.185
2020-21Bundesliga306535224262.953.030.199
2020-21Ligue 1380505026252.612.760.208
2019-20Premier League380555323242.972.720.199
2019-20La Liga380505226282.642.480.197
2019-20Serie A380535424222.933.040.201
2019-20Bundesliga306555023223.153.210.209
2019-20Ligue 1279495427252.542.520.200
2018-19Premier League380576022192.962.820.182
2018-19La Liga380514725292.772.590.205
2018-19Serie A380555324282.822.680.188
2018-19Bundesliga306545423243.013.180.198
2018-19Ligue 1380504826292.622.560.206
2017-18Premier League380575523262.922.680.189
2017-18La Liga380545724232.822.690.199
2017-18Serie A380575723222.962.680.185
2017-18Bundesliga306524924272.852.790.205
2017-18Ligue 1380535325252.672.720.194

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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