Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Auxerre v Le Mans
Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Why
what stands behind the numbersAuxerre are 16th of 18 with 6 points from six matches; Le Mans are 15th with 6 points from seven matches.
Auxerre have two wins and three defeats in their last five, while Le Mans have a win, two draws and two defeats in their last five.
In their last ten meetings Auxerre won six, Le Mans two, with two draws.
What the result changes
each side's season chances now, and after each result| Now | AUX win | Draw | LMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Auxerre | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 53% | 45% | 53% | 63% |
 Le Mans | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 41% | 49% | 43% | 31% |
Worth knowing
Facts checked in our data, each with the period or the sample it stands on.Auxerre have scored in each of their last 11 Ligue 1 matches (19 goals), their longest such run since August 2025.
sample 11 · since April 2026
Cameron Archer has scored in each of his last 4 league matches (4 goals).
sample 4 · since September 2026
Adil Bourabaa has scored in each of his last 3 league matches (3 goals).
sample 3 · since September 2026
With a Le Mans win, Vesta's chance of Le Mans finishing in the bottom three would move from 41% to 31%.
Auxerre have won their last 4 league meetings with Le Mans.
sample 4 · since October 2008
With a Le Mans win, Vesta's chance of Auxerre finishing in the bottom three would move from 53% to 63%.
Likely line-ups appear once Vesta has the squads of both sides, in the days before kick-off.
The players
Every player of both squads: Vesta's chances for this match beside his league season. Tap a column to sort. Auxerre
23 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kévin Danois CM | – | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 7 | 9 | 0.11 |
| Lamine Sy RB | – | 540 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.53 | 5 | 4 | 0.22 |
| Mamadou Diop GK | – | 540 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 |
| Clément Akpa CB | – | 528 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.02 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 |
| Danny Namaso AM | – | 496 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1.25 | 0.78 | 11 | 8 | 0.37 |
| Arthur Piedfort CM | – | 480 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 |
| Naouirou Ahamada CM | – | 368 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 6 | 6 | 0.06 |
| Cameron Archer ST | 24 | 353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.80 | 0.48 | 9 | 3 | 0.58 |
| Christ Makosso CB | – | 304 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 |
| Romain Faivre ST | – | 298 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 7 | 12 | 0.23 |
| Fredrik Oppegård LB | – | 292 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 |
| Axel Tuanzebe CB | 28 | 270 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.11 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary LW | – | 270 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 9 | 2 | 0.16 |
| Sinaly Diomande CB | – | 180 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Elikya Legros CB | – | 161 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Aristide Zossou ST | – | 117 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 1 | 1 | – |
| Rayan Mandengue | – | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 | – |
| Pierre Ekwah CM | – | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Lamfia Dioubaté | – | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Josué Casimir RM | – | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Theo Bair ST | 27 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Lasso Coulibaly RM | – | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | – |
| Youssef Khoudda | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
Le Mans
25 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Mafouta ST | – | 592 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3.50 | 0.75 | 17 | 2 | 0.65 |
| Harold Voyer CB | – | 528 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Rayan Bamba RM | – | 470 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1 | 5 | 0.03 |
| Nicolas Kocik GK | – | 443 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Noa Boissé CB | – | 420 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Bretelle DM | 24 | 407 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.28 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 |
| Adil Bourabaa CM | – | 406 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.90 | 0.59 | 7 | 8 | 0.33 |
| Dame Gueye ST | – | 405 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1.61 | 0.22 | 7 | 2 | 0.41 |
| Jean Vercruysse CM | – | 391 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.25 | 8 | 2 | 0.16 |
| Lucas Calodat LM | – | 384 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | 1.65 | 4 | 7 | 0.45 |
| Samuel Yohou CB | – | 377 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 |
| Alexandre Lauray DM | – | 361 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.53 | 5 | 7 | 0.19 |
| Lucas Buades RM | – | 250 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1 | 1 | – |
| Yasser Larouci LM | – | 226 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 4 | 1 | – |
| Djibril Sidibe CB | – | 222 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 1 | 1 | – |
| Habib Diallo ST | – | 190 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.19 | 5 | 1 | – |
| Ewan Hatfout GK | – | 187 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Théo Eyoum CB | – | 180 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Antoine Rabillard CM | – | 168 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.44 | 2 | 2 | – |
| Billal Brahimi ST | – | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 2 | 5 | – |
| Daouda Traoré CM | – | 85 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Raúl Torrente CB | – | 73 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| William Harhouz | – | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Erwan Colas | – | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Milan Robin | – | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Auxerre
WWLLLWWLHead to head
Every meeting in our data: the leagues since 2001-02, the European cups since 2014-15; newest first. At Auxerre: 4-1-1 (won, drawn, lost). 2.4 goals a meeting.Widest margin: Le Mans 3–0 Auxerre, Ligue 1, Sat 12 Apr 2008.
- Sat 20 Mar 2010Auxerre 2–1 Le MansLigue 1
- Sat 7 Nov 2009Le Mans 0–1 AuxerreLigue 1
- Sat 21 Mar 2009Auxerre 2–0 Le MansLigue 1
- Wed 29 Oct 2008Le Mans 0–2 AuxerreLigue 1
- Sat 12 Apr 2008Le Mans 3–0 AuxerreLigue 1
- Sun 25 Nov 2007Auxerre 3–0 Le MansLigue 1
- Sun 1 Apr 2007Le Mans 2–2 AuxerreLigue 1
- Sat 4 Nov 2006Auxerre 2–3 Le MansLigue 1
The two sides, beneath the results
The league season in 11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations.
AuxerreAUX
Le MansLMN- League
- Ligue 1
- Ligue 1
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 16th · 6 pts from 6
- 15th · 6 pts from 7
- Won, drawn, losthome 2-0-1 / 1-2-1 · away 0-0-3 / 0-1-2
- 2-0-4
- 1-3-3
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 1.03 17th of 18
- 1.22 12th of 18
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 2.05 17th of 18
- 2.06 18th of 18
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- +1.8 scoring · -3.7 keeping
- +1.4 scoring · -0.6 keeping
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 8.0 · 0.13
- 10.4 · 0.12
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 4-3-3 2 of 6
- 3-5-2 7 of 7
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1473 71st +26
- 1453 79th +3
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 34 26–43
<1% · <1% · 53% - 36 28–44
<1% · <1% · 41%
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Auxerre
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play66%
- From a corner14%
- Penalties11%
- Other set pieces9%
How their 35 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Le Mans
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play94%
- Penalties3%
- From a corner3%
How their 36 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Numbers to expect
Vesta's expected number for each sideEach is checked on past seasons, said against what came. The check
Every forecast for this match is published with Vesta's forecast, in the days before kick-off.
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- None published
- Match data
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues: results since 2001-02, shots and expected goals since 2014-15 (11footy's own model)
- Season simulations
- 10,000 seasons, Vesta
Auxerre in the Lab Le Mans in the LabEvery meetingThe track record