Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Marseille v Le Havre
Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Why
what stands behind the numbersMarseille are 14th of 18 with 6 points from six matches; Le Havre are 18th with 2 points from six matches.
Marseille have a win and four defeats in their last five, while Le Havre have not won in their last five (two draws and three defeats).
In their last ten meetings Marseille won ten, Le Havre none, with no draws.
What the result changes
each side's season chances now, and after each result| Now | MAR win | Draw | HAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Marseille | ||||
| Top 4 | 13% | 16% | 11% | 8% |
| Bottom 3 | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
  Le Havre | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 42% | 47% | 42% | 29% |
Worth knowing
Facts checked in our data, each with the period or the sample it stands on.Marseille have scored in each of their last 11 home Ligue 1 matches (24 goals), their longest such run since December 2025.
sample 11 · since January 2026
Le Havre have not won any of their last 6 Ligue 1 matches (D2 L4), their longest such run since May 2026.
sample 6 · since August 2026
Marseille have won their last 10 league meetings with Le Havre.
sample 10 · since September 2002
Marseille are unbeaten in their last 10 league meetings with Le Havre (W10 D0).
sample 10 · since September 2002
Marseille have won their last 5 home league matches against Le Havre.
sample 5 · since February 2003
With a Le Havre win, Vesta's chance of Le Havre finishing in the bottom three would move from 42% to 29%.
Likely line-ups appear once Vesta has the squads of both sides, in the days before kick-off.
The players
Every player of both squads: Vesta's chances for this match beside his league season. Tap a column to sort. Marseille
22 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey de Lange GK | – | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Emerson LB | 32 | 538 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.89 | 3 | 6 | 0.17 |
| CJ Egan-Riley CB | – | 525 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 |
| Amine Gouiri ST | 26 | 512 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3.12 | 1.42 | 13 | 7 | 0.80 |
| Amine Harit RW | – | 483 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 1.26 | 6 | 10 | 0.30 |
| Himad Abdelli AM | – | 478 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.07 | 3 | 3 | 0.19 |
| Angel Gomes AM | 26 | 466 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1.72 | 0.77 | 10 | 4 | 0.48 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DM | 31 | 450 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.37 | 10 | 5 | 0.20 |
| Timothy Weah RB | 26 | 441 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.60 | 5 | 5 | 0.16 |
| Naif Aguerd CB | 30 | 389 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 |
| Igor Paixão LW | 26 | 369 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 5 | 4 | 0.15 |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia CB | 33 | 146 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Neal Maupay ST | 30 | 142 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.06 | 3 | 2 | – |
| Keyliane Abdallah | 20 | 138 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.84 | 6 | 3 | – |
| Kelyann Bezahaf RB | – | 92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Nouhoum Kamissoko DM | – | 73 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Tochukwu Nnadi DM | – | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Quinten Timber CM | 25 | 48 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Derek Cornelius CB | 28 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Tadjidine Mmadi | – | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Faris Moumbagna ST | 26 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.38 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Ulisses García LB | – | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
Le Havre
24 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Richardson CM | 24 | 530 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.62 | 10 | 11 | 0.17 |
| Simon Ebonog CM | – | 527 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 6 | 7 | 0.06 |
| Mbwana Samatta ST | – | 524 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2.50 | 0.77 | 26 | 2 | 0.56 |
| Ayumu Seko CB | 26 | 517 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 5 | 6 | 0.16 |
| Ahmed Touba CB | – | 450 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| Josh Maja ST | 27 | 342 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2.36 | 0.65 | 9 | 7 | 0.79 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye CM | – | 326 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.70 | 9 | 12 | 0.35 |
| Djibril Ouziad RWB | – | 314 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.25 | 7 | 3 | 0.19 |
| Elias Jelert RWB | – | 278 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0 | 3 | 0.03 |
| Gauthier Gallon GK | – | 271 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Lionel Mpasi GK | – | 270 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Junior Mwanga CM | – | 261 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0 | 1 | – |
| Sota Nakamura ST | – | 231 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.96 | 4 | 7 | – |
| Timothee Pembele CB | 24 | 215 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Vincent Sasso CB | – | 161 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Kaito Mizuta AM | – | 155 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 3 | 5 | – |
| Rayan Fofana ST | – | 136 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.36 | 0.00 | 6 | 0 | – |
| Enzo Koffi LB | – | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 3 | 3 | – |
| Fodé Doucouré RM | 25 | 98 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.28 | 2 | 2 | – |
| Lamine N'Diaye LB | – | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 2 | 2 | – |
| Yanis Zouaoui LB | – | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Ismaïl Bouneb | – | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0 | 1 | – |
| Daren Mosengo | – | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Hakim Dongopandji | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Marseille
WWWLLLLWHead to head
Every meeting in our data: the leagues since 2001-02, the European cups since 2014-15; newest first. At Marseille: 5-0-0 (won, drawn, lost). 3.4 goals a meeting.Widest margin: Marseille 6–2 Le Havre, Ligue 1, Sat 18 Oct 2025.
- Sun 10 May 2026Le Havre 0–1 MarseilleLigue 1
- Sat 18 Oct 2025Marseille 6–2 Le HavreLigue 1
- Sat 10 May 2025Le Havre 1–3 MarseilleLigue 1
- Sun 5 Jan 2025Marseille 5–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- Sun 19 May 2024Le Havre 1–2 MarseilleLigue 1
- Sun 8 Oct 2023Marseille 3–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- Sat 17 Jan 2009Marseille 2–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- Sat 23 Aug 2008Le Havre 0–1 MarseilleLigue 1
Show the other 2 meetings
The two sides, beneath the results
The league season in 11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations.
MarseilleMAR
Le HavreHAC- League
- Ligue 1
- Ligue 1
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 14th · 6 pts from 6
- 18th · 2 pts from 6
- Won, drawn, losthome 1-0-2 / 0-1-2 · away 1-0-2 / 0-1-2
- 2-0-4
- 0-2-4
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 1.70 7th of 18
- 1.50 9th of 18
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 1.97 16th of 18
- 1.50 9th of 18
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- -1.2 scoring · +3.8 keeping
- -5.0 scoring · +1.0 keeping
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 9.5 · 0.19
- 10.9 · 0.13
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 4-2-3-1 3 of 6
- 3-4-2-1 4 of 6
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1536 35th -72
- 1438 86th +5
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 48 39–57
1% · 13% · 2% - 36 27–44
<1% · <1% · 42%
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Marseille
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play81%
- Penalties10%
- From a corner7%
- Direct free kicks1%
How their 67 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Le Havre
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play76%
- From a corner12%
- Penalties9%
- Other set pieces3%
How their 33 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Numbers to expect
Vesta's expected number for each sideEach is checked on past seasons, said against what came. The check
Every forecast for this match is published with Vesta's forecast, in the days before kick-off.
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- None published
- Match data
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues: results since 2001-02, shots and expected goals since 2014-15 (11footy's own model)
- Season simulations
- 10,000 seasons, Vesta
Marseille in the Lab Le Havre in the LabEvery meetingThe track record