Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Liverpool v Brighton
Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Why
what stands behind the numbersLiverpool are 9th of 20 with 9 points from six matches; Brighton are 3rd with 13 points from six matches.
Liverpool have two wins, two draws and a defeat in their last five, while Brighton have three wins, a draw and a defeat in their last five.
In their last ten meetings Liverpool won four, Brighton three, with three draws.
What the result changes
each side's season chances now, and after each result| Now | LIV win | Draw | BHA win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Liverpool | ||||
| Top 4 | 37% | 44% | 35% | 30% |
  Brighton | ||||
| Title | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Top 4 | 68% | 60% | 67% | 76% |
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Manchester City | 6 | +11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |   Arsenal | 6 | +5 | 15 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | +13 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 4 |   Brentford | 6 | +6 | 10 | DDDWD |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 0 | 9 | DWDWL |
| 18 |   Bournemouth | 6 | -6 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 19 |   Tottenham | 6 | -6 | 3 | LDDLD |
| 20 |   Fulham | 6 | -4 | 2 | LLDDL |
Worth knowing
Facts checked in our data, each with the period or the sample it stands on.Brighton at Liverpool since 2001-02: 1 win in 9
Liverpool won 6, with 2 draws.
Last meeting: 2025-26, 2–0.
since 2001-02
Liverpool have not won any of their last 5 home Premier League matches (D4 L1), their longest such run since March 2021.
sample 5 · since May 2026
Brighton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 Premier League matches, their longest such run since August 2022.
sample 3 · since September 2026
Liverpool have won their last 3 home league matches against Brighton; Brighton's last win there came on 1 October 2022.
sample 3 · since March 2024
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 5 home league matches against Brighton (W3 D2); Brighton's last win there came on 3 February 2021.
sample 5 · since October 2021
Liverpool have won 10 of their 18 league meetings with Brighton since 2017-18 (W10 D4 L4).
sample 18 · since December 2017
With a Brighton win, Vesta's chance of Brighton finishing in the top four would move from 68% to 76%.
Likely line-ups appear once Vesta has the squads of both sides, in the days before kick-off.
The players
Every player of both squads: Vesta's chances for this match beside his league season. Tap a column to sort. Liverpool
20 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alisson GK | 34 | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Virgil van Dijk CB | 35 | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 2 | 1 | 0.02 |
| Jérémy Jacquet CB | 21 | 510 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.10 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 |
| Milos Kerkez LB | 22 | 477 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0.03 |
| Florian Wirtz AM | 23 | 472 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 14 | 11 | 0.36 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AM | – | 441 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1.42 | 0.92 | 13 | 11 | 0.48 |
| Alexander Isak ST | 27 | 417 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3.72 | 0.18 | 15 | 3 | 0.84 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DM | 27 | 401 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.27 | 7 | 5 | 0.18 |
| Cody Gakpo LW | 27 | 373 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | 1.90 | 10 | 11 | 0.62 |
| Ronald Araújo CB | 27 | 358 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 |
| Víctor Muñoz LW | 23 | 351 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.54 | 9 | 2 | 0.25 |
| Bradley Barcola ST | 24 | 258 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.30 | 3 | 4 | – |
| Ryan Gravenberch DM | 24 | 252 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 5 | 5 | – |
| Jeremie Frimpong RWB | 25 | 195 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.42 | 1 | 6 | – |
| Rio Ngumoha LW | 18 | 111 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Lewis Koumas ST | – | 97 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | – |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas LB | – | 63 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Treymaurice Nyoni | – | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Joseph Gomez CB | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Federico Chiesa ST | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
Brighton
23 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Groß DM | 35 | 540 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1.76 | 2.14 | 11 | 18 | 0.65 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 24 | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Diego Gómez RW | – | 532 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1.30 | 1.17 | 18 | 8 | 0.42 |
| Luka Vuskovic CB | 19 | 529 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 10 | 0 | 0.16 |
| Olivier Boscagli CB | – | 509 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.77 | 3 | 8 | 0.15 |
| Maxim De Cuyper LB | 25 | 501 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1.35 | 1.52 | 8 | 11 | 0.52 |
| Yasin Ayari DM | 23 | 429 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1.13 | 0.24 | 12 | 3 | 0.29 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu LB | 27 | 426 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 4 | 4 | 0.05 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas ST | – | 417 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1.33 | 0.08 | 14 | 3 | 0.30 |
| Lewis Dunk CB | 34 | 388 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 |
| Malick Yalcouyé AM | – | 257 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1.34 | 0.18 | 7 | 5 | – |
| Chema Andres DM | 21 | 200 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.04 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Mats Wieffer RB | 26 | 165 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 2 | 2 | – |
| Pascal Struijk CB | 27 | 158 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Georginio Rutter AM | 24 | 104 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | 1.06 | 3 | 2 | – |
| Costinha | – | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Jack Hinshelwood AM | – | 69 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.18 | 0.37 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Ibrahim Osman LM | – | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Promise David | – | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Matt O'Riley AM | – | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1 | 1 | – |
| Zadok Yohanna | – | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Michael Svoboda CB | – | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Jaouen Hadjam LB | – | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Liverpool
LDDDWDWLHead to head
Every meeting in our data: the leagues since 2001-02, the European cups since 2014-15; newest first. At Liverpool: 6-2-1 (won, drawn, lost). 3.2 goals a meeting.Widest margin: Brighton 1–5 Liverpool, Premier League, Sat 2 Dec 2017.
- Sat 21 Mar 2026Brighton 2–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- Sat 13 Dec 2025Liverpool 2–0 BrightonPremier League
- Mon 19 May 2025Brighton 3–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- Sat 2 Nov 2024Liverpool 2–1 BrightonPremier League
- Sun 31 Mar 2024Liverpool 2–1 BrightonPremier League
- Sun 8 Oct 2023Brighton 2–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- Sat 14 Jan 2023Brighton 3–0 LiverpoolPremier League
- Sat 1 Oct 2022Liverpool 3–3 BrightonPremier League
Show the other 10 meetings
- Sat 12 Mar 2022Brighton 0–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- Sat 30 Oct 2021Liverpool 2–2 BrightonPremier League
- Wed 3 Feb 2021Liverpool 0–1 BrightonPremier League
- Sat 28 Nov 2020Brighton 1–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- Wed 8 Jul 2020Brighton 1–3 LiverpoolPremier League
- Sat 30 Nov 2019Liverpool 2–1 BrightonPremier League
- Sat 12 Jan 2019Brighton 0–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- Sat 25 Aug 2018Liverpool 1–0 BrightonPremier League
- Sun 13 May 2018Liverpool 4–0 BrightonPremier League
- Sat 2 Dec 2017Brighton 1–5 LiverpoolPremier League
The two sides, beneath the results
The league season in 11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations.
LiverpoolLIV
BrightonBHA- League
- Premier League
- Premier League
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 9th · 9 pts from 6
- 3rd · 13 pts from 6
- Won, drawn, losthome 0-2-1 / 2-1-0 · away 2-1-0 / 2-0-1
- 2-3-1
- 4-1-1
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 1.57 10th of 20
- 2.07 1st of 20
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 1.36 8th of 20
- 1.64 16th of 20
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- -2.4 scoring · +1.2 keeping
- +5.6 scoring · +4.8 keeping
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 15.0 · 0.10
- 16.6 · 0.12
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 4-2-3-1 6 of 6
- 4-2-3-1 6 of 6
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1592 19th -36
- 1581 21st +9
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 59 50–68
1% · 37% · <1% - 64 55–73
3% · 68% · <1%
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Liverpool
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play73%
- From a corner16%
- Direct free kicks5%
- Other set pieces4%
- Penalties2%
How their 56 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Brighton
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play78%
- From a corner17%
- Penalties3%
- Direct free kicks2%
How their 58 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Numbers to expect
Vesta's expected number for each sideEach is checked on past seasons, said against what came. The check
Every forecast for this match is published with Vesta's forecast, in the days before kick-off.
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- None published
- Match data
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues: results since 2001-02, shots and expected goals since 2014-15 (11footy's own model)
- Season simulations
- 10,000 seasons, Vesta
Liverpool in the Lab Brighton in the LabEvery meetingThe track record