Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk
Champions League 2026-27 · League phase, matchday 3
Published before kick-off ·
Inter, clearly.
Inter win about 72 times in 100. The other 28: a draw (17) or a Shakhtar Donetsk win (11).
- Goals expected
- 2.3–0.8
- Likeliest score
- 2–012%
- Three goals or more
- 61%
- Both sides score
- 50%
Published Sun 18 Oct before kick-off and never changed. Vesta's cups model works from the clubs' ratings and the venue; it is checked apart from the leagues, and its numbers below the result are model estimates, not yet tested one by one.
What the league phase puts on the line
29th, 0 pts from 2 matches
6 pts behind 8th (the last 16) · 3 pts behind 24th (the play-offs)
11th, 4 pts from 2 matches
2 pts behind 8th (the last 16) · in the play-off places
Top eight go straight to the last 16, 9th to 24th to the play-offs, the rest are out. The whole table
The match
- Where
- San Siro, Milano, Italy
Who is likely to start
The team sheets arrive about an hour before kick-off; until then, each side's last starting eleven in our data (league or Europe), not a forecast.
Inter
last starting eleven, 3-5-2, against Bologna, Sat 17 Oct
Shakhtar Donetsk
last starting eleven, against AEK Athens, Wed 14 Oct- 31Dmytro RiznykG
- 22Mykola MatviyenkoCD-L
- 5Valeriy BondarCD-R
- 27Oleh OcheretkoDM
- 13PedrinhoLB
- 17Vinícius TobiasRB
- 6Marlon GomesCM-L
- 10PedrinhoCM-R
- 11NewerttonLM
- 30Alisson SantanaRM
- 9Kauã EliasF
Who makes the chances
Each club's league season, sortable. Vesta does not work out player chances for cup matches: these are season numbers, not a forecast. Inter
league season, ordered by xG + xA| Player | Min | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | Key passes | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez ST | 352 | 4 | 0 | 4.97 | 0.67 | 25 | 8 | 1.44 |
| Federico Dimarco LWB | 468 | 0 | 1 | 0.76 | 3.53 | 12 | 19 | 0.82 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito ST | 421 | 2 | 1 | 2.74 | 0.68 | 15 | 7 | 0.73 |
| Marcus Thuram ST | 368 | 4 | 2 | 2.41 | 0.83 | 19 | 7 | 0.79 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny ST | 119 | 2 | 0 | 2.12 | 0.00 | 8 | 0 | 1.60 |
| Andy Diouf CM | 440 | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 1.73 | 5 | 14 | 0.38 |
| Piotr Zielinski CM | 437 | 1 | 2 | 0.44 | 1.40 | 11 | 5 | 0.38 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu CM | 208 | 3 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.74 | 5 | 7 | 0.73 |
| Carlos Augusto CB | 256 | 2 | 2 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 3 | 5 | 0.58 |
| Manuel Akanji CB | 506 | 0 | 1 | 0.54 | 1.09 | 7 | 4 | 0.29 |
Shakhtar Donetsk play outside the five leagues: our data hold their European matches only, so their players' season numbers are not here.
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Inter
WWLWDWLW
Shakhtar Donetsk
WLWDLLDW- Wed 14 Octv AEK Athens League phase3–1
- Thu 10 Sepat PSV Eindhoven League phase1–1
- Thu 7 May
at Crystal Palace Semifinals1–2 - Thu 30 Aprv Crystal Palace Semifinals1–3
- Thu 16 Aprat AZ Alkmaar Quarterfinals2–2
- Thu 9 Aprv AZ Alkmaar Quarterfinals3–0
- Thu 19 Marv Lech Poznan Round of 161–2
- Thu 12 Marat Lech Poznan Round of 163–1
Head to head
Every meeting in the European cups since 2014-15, newest first.2Inter won3drawn0Shakhtar Donetsk won7–0goals
Widest margin: Inter 5–0 Shakhtar Donetsk, Europa League, Mon 17 Aug 2020.
- Wed 24 Nov 2021Inter 2–0 Shakhtar DonetskChampions League, Group stage
- Tue 28 Sep 2021Shakhtar Donetsk 0–0 InterChampions League, Group stage
- Wed 9 Dec 2020Inter 0–0 Shakhtar DonetskChampions League, Group stage
- Tue 27 Oct 2020Shakhtar Donetsk 0–0 InterChampions League, Group stage
- Mon 17 Aug 2020Inter 5–0 Shakhtar DonetskEuropa League, Semifinals
The two sides, beneath the results
League numbers of the season (11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations).InterINTShakhtar DonetskSHK- League
- Serie A
- –
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 1st · 19 pts from 7
- –
- Won, drawn, losthome 4-0-0 / – · away 2-1-0 / –
- 6-1-0
- –
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 2.76 1st of 20
- –
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 0.99 3rd of 20
- –
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- +1.7 scoring · -2.1 keeping
- –
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 19.4 · 0.13
- –
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 3-5-2 7 of 7
- –
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1722 3rd -39
- –
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 87 78–95
88% · >99% · <1% - –
Shakhtar Donetsk play outside the five leagues: our data hold their European matches only, so their league numbers are not here.
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Inter
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below1140'
9715'
11830'
21545'
16460'
221075'
- Open play72%
- From a corner18%
- Penalties7%
- Other set pieces2%
- Direct free kicks1%
How their 89 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Every forecast for this match
All of Vesta's numbers, published Sun 18 Oct before kick-off. The cups' model is checked on results only: everything past the result is a model estimate.Exact score
Inter down the side, Shakhtar Donetsk across · darker, likelier| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Result combinations
- Inter win or draw89%
- Either team wins (no draw)83%
- Shakhtar Donetsk win or draw28%
Goals in the match
- 1 or more goals96%
- 2 or more goals82%
- 3 or more goals61%
- 4 or more goals38%
- 5 or more goals21%
Exactly
- 0 goals4%
- 1 goal14%
- 2 goals21%
- 3 goals22%
- 4 goals18%
- 5 goals11%
- 6 or more goals10%
Goals by team
- Inter: 1 or more90%
- Inter: 2 or more68%
- Inter: 3 or more41%
- Shakhtar Donetsk: 1 or more55%
- Shakhtar Donetsk: 2 or more19%
- Shakhtar Donetsk: 3 or more5%
Also
- Both teams score50%
- At least one team does not score50%
Winning margin
- Inter by 3 or more27%
- Inter by 221%
- Inter by 123%
- Draw17%
- Shakhtar Donetsk by 18%
- Shakhtar Donetsk by 22%
- Shakhtar Donetsk by 3 or more1%
Halves
- A goal in the first half76%
- A goal in the second half82%
- Inter ahead at half-time53%
- Level at half-time35%
- Shakhtar Donetsk ahead at half-time13%
- Inter win the second half58%
- Second half level29%
- Shakhtar Donetsk win the second half13%
- More goals in the first half32%
- More goals in the second half45%
- Same goals in both halves23%
Half-time and full-time
- Inter ahead at half-time, Inter win49%
- Level at half-time, Inter win20%
- Shakhtar Donetsk ahead at half-time, Inter win3%
- Inter ahead at half-time, draw3%
- Level at half-time, draw10%
- Shakhtar Donetsk ahead at half-time, draw3%
- Inter ahead at half-time, Shakhtar Donetsk win1%
- Level at half-time, Shakhtar Donetsk win4%
- Shakhtar Donetsk ahead at half-time, Shakhtar Donetsk win6%
Clean sheets
- Inter keep a clean sheet45%
- Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet10%
- Inter win without conceding41%
- Shakhtar Donetsk win without conceding5%
- No goals at all4%
The first goal
- Inter score first71%
- Shakhtar Donetsk score first24%
- No goals4%
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- Vesta's cups model, published Sun 18 Oct 05:52 CEST, forecast 1738
- Results and line-ups
- Official match data, through Thu 15 Oct
- League numbers
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues, built Sun 18 Oct
- In the Lab
- Every match and shot of Inter