Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Aston Villa v Fulham
Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Why
what stands behind the numbersAston Villa are 16th of 20 with 5 points from six matches; Fulham are 20th with 2 points from six matches.
Aston Villa have a win, two draws and two defeats in their last five, while Fulham have not won in their last five (two draws and three defeats).
In their last ten meetings Aston Villa won eight, Fulham two, with no draws.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Manchester City | 6 | +11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |   Arsenal | 6 | +5 | 15 | WWWLW |
| 3 |   Brighton | 6 | +13 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 4 |   Brentford | 6 | +6 | 10 | DDDWD |
| 16 |   Aston Villa | 6 | -5 | 5 | LDLWD |
| 18 |   Bournemouth | 6 | -6 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 19 |   Tottenham | 6 | -6 | 3 | LDDLD |
| 20 |   Fulham | 6 | -4 | 2 | LLDDL |
Likely line-ups appear once Vesta has the squads of both sides, in the days before kick-off.
The players
Every player of both squads: Vesta's chances for this match beside his league season. Tap a column to sort. Aston Villa
22 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boubacar Kamara DM | – | 540 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.74 | 2 | 5 | 0.14 |
| Victor Lindelöf CB | 32 | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 |
| John McGinn RW | 31 | 537 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1.04 | 0.34 | 7 | 8 | 0.23 |
| Emiliano Buendía LW | – | 482 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1.18 | 0.25 | 13 | 7 | 0.27 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 24 | 450 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Jackson ST | 25 | 388 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1.15 | 0.69 | 12 | 4 | 0.43 |
| Matthew Cash RB | – | 381 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 |
| Tyrone Mings CB | 33 | 347 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 4 | 0 | 0.07 |
| Ian Maatsen LB | 24 | 343 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 5 | 1 | 0.14 |
| Ross Barkley DM | 32 | 317 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 7 | 7 | 0.21 |
| George Hemmings LW | 19 | 298 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 |
| João Gomes CM | – | 219 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0 | 2 | – |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka RB | 28 | 198 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0 | 2 | – |
| Pau Torres CB | 29 | 193 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Johan Manzambi DM | 21 | 193 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.94 | 0.51 | 11 | 5 | – |
| Matteo Ruggeri LB | 24 | 158 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1 | 2 | – |
| Marco Bizot GK | – | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Alysson Edward | – | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Tammy Abraham ST | 29 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Ibrahim Mbaye ST | 18 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 2 | 2 | – |
| Alejandro Garnacho AM | 22 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Lamare Bogarde DM | 22 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
Fulham
21 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernd Leno GK | 34 | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Calvin Bassey CB | 26 | 540 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 0.03 |
| Gonzalo García ST | – | 516 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3.49 | 0.66 | 18 | 3 | 0.72 |
| Joshua King AM | – | 505 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.30 | 1.39 | 14 | 6 | 0.48 |
| Alex Iwobi LW | 30 | 504 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.59 | 1.88 | 6 | 13 | 0.44 |
| Sander Berge DM | 28 | 440 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.58 | 4 | 7 | 0.15 |
| Antonee Robinson LB | 29 | 437 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 4 | 7 | 0.16 |
| Oscar Bobb RW | – | 433 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1.07 | 1.79 | 5 | 9 | 0.59 |
| Timothy Castagne RB | 30 | 412 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.22 | 4 | 4 | 0.17 |
| Shea Charles DM | – | 377 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 3 | 3 | 0.07 |
| David Affengruber CB | 25 | 270 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 |
| César Palacios LW | 21 | 238 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1.31 | 0.05 | 8 | 2 | – |
| Joachim Andersen CB | – | 190 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0 | 3 | – |
| Ryan Sessegnon LB | 26 | 133 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 6 | 1 | – |
| Kenny Tete RB | – | 116 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0 | 2 | – |
| Jorge Cuenca CB | 26 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0 | 2 | – |
| Kevin LW | – | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | – |
| Rodrigo Muniz ST | – | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 3 | 2 | – |
| Hugo Larsson CM | – | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AM | 26 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1 | 2 | – |
| Manuel Ángel RM | – | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Aston Villa
WWLLDLWD Fulham
DWLLLDDL- Sat 10 Oct
at IpswichxG 1.4–1.31–2 - Sun 20 Sepv Manchester UnitedxG 1.7–1.81–1
- Sat 12 Sepat LiverpoolxG 1.0–1.30–0
- Sat 5 Sepv Crystal PalacexG 4.0–0.82–3
- Sun 30 Augat SunderlandxG 0.8–1.20–1
- Mon 24 Augv ChelseaxG 1.6–2.32–3
- Sun 24 Mayv Newcastle UnitedxG 1.8–0.32–0
- Sun 17 Mayat Wolverhampton WanderersxG 1.6–1.11–1
Head to head
Every meeting in our data: the leagues since 2001-02, the European cups since 2014-15; newest first. At Aston Villa: 12-5-1 (won, drawn, lost). 2.4 goals a meeting.17Aston Villa won11drawn8Fulham won52–34goals
Widest margin: Fulham 3–0 Aston Villa, Premier League, Thu 20 Oct 2022.
- Sat 25 Apr 2026Fulham 1–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sun 28 Sep 2025Aston Villa 3–1 FulhamPremier League
- Sat 3 May 2025Aston Villa 1–0 FulhamPremier League
- Sat 19 Oct 2024Fulham 1–3 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 17 Feb 2024Fulham 1–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sun 12 Nov 2023Aston Villa 3–1 FulhamPremier League
- Tue 25 Apr 2023Aston Villa 1–0 FulhamPremier League
- Thu 20 Oct 2022Fulham 3–0 Aston VillaPremier League
Show the other 28 meetings
- Sun 4 Apr 2021Aston Villa 3–1 FulhamPremier League
- Mon 28 Sep 2020Fulham 0–3 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 5 Apr 2014Aston Villa 1–2 FulhamPremier League
- Sun 8 Dec 2013Fulham 2–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 13 Apr 2013Aston Villa 1–1 FulhamPremier League
- Sat 20 Oct 2012Fulham 1–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 10 Mar 2012Aston Villa 1–0 FulhamPremier League
- Sat 13 Aug 2011Fulham 0–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 5 Feb 2011Aston Villa 2–2 FulhamPremier League
- Sat 6 Nov 2010Fulham 1–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 30 Jan 2010Fulham 0–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sun 30 Aug 2009Aston Villa 2–0 FulhamPremier League
- Sat 9 May 2009Fulham 3–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 29 Nov 2008Aston Villa 0–0 FulhamPremier League
- Sun 3 Feb 2008Fulham 2–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 25 Aug 2007Aston Villa 2–1 FulhamPremier League
- Sat 3 Mar 2007Fulham 1–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 21 Oct 2006Aston Villa 1–1 FulhamPremier League
- Sat 25 Mar 2006Aston Villa 0–0 FulhamPremier League
- Wed 28 Dec 2005Fulham 3–3 Aston VillaPremier League
- Wed 2 Feb 2005Fulham 1–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 23 Oct 2004Aston Villa 2–0 FulhamPremier League
- Wed 11 Feb 2004Fulham 1–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sun 28 Dec 2003Aston Villa 3–0 FulhamPremier League
- Sat 8 Feb 2003Fulham 2–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 9 Nov 2002Aston Villa 3–1 FulhamPremier League
- Sat 2 Feb 2002Fulham 0–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- Sun 14 Oct 2001Aston Villa 2–0 FulhamPremier League
The two sides, beneath the results
The league season in 11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations.
Aston VillaAVL
FulhamFUL- League
- Premier League
- Premier League
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 16th · 5 pts from 6
- 20th · 2 pts from 6
- Won, drawn, losthome 0-1-2 / 0-1-2 · away 1-1-1 / 0-1-2
- 1-2-3
- 0-2-4
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 0.94 19th of 20
- 1.75 6th of 20
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 1.75 18th of 20
- 1.46 11th of 20
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- +0.3 scoring · -0.5 keeping
- -4.5 scoring · -1.2 keeping
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 11.7 · 0.10
- 14.3 · 0.11
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 4-2-3-1 6 of 6
- 4-2-3-1 6 of 6
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1536 36th -46
- 1488 63rd -27
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 45 36–54
<1% · 1% · 22% - 44 35–53
<1% · 1% · 25%
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Aston Villa
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below590'
6615'
8630'
121645'
11560'
151375'
- Open play71%
- From a corner24%
- Direct free kicks4%
- Other set pieces2%
How their 55 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Fulham
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below620'
31015'
5930'
111145'
7760'
131575'
- Open play67%
- From a corner16%
- Penalties12%
- Direct free kicks2%
- Other set pieces2%
How their 43 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Numbers to expect
Vesta's expected number for each sideAVLFUL
14.3Shots13.6
4.7Shots on target4.1
5.0Corners4.9
9.2Fouls11.6
1.5Yellow cards2.3
Each is checked on past seasons, said against what came. The check
Every forecast for this match is published with Vesta's forecast, in the days before kick-off.
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- None published
- Match data
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues: results since 2001-02, shots and expected goals since 2014-15 (11footy's own model)
- Season simulations
- 10,000 seasons, Vesta
Aston Villa in the Lab Fulham in the LabEvery meetingThe track record