Aston Villa v Brentford

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Aston Villa

• Nicolas JacksonForward, started 4 of the last 531%to score
• Emiliano BuendíaForward, started 5 of the last 521%to score
• John McGinnRight winger, started 5 of the last 513%to score
• Ross BarkleyAttacking midfielder, started 4 of the last 512%to score

Most likely to assist: John McGinn 15%, Emiliano Buendía 11%

Brentford

• ThiagoForward, started 5 of the last 540%to score
• Kevin SchadeLeft winger, started 5 of the last 524%to score
• Keane Lewis-PotterLeft-back, started 5 of the last 511%to score
• Jaidon AnthonyRight winger, started 3 of the last 510%to score

Most likely to assist: Vitaly Janelt 15%, Mikkel Damsgaard 12%

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Nicolas Jackson	60	31%	6%	8%	37%	2.0
Emiliano Buendía	83	21%	2%	11%	29%	2.2
John McGinn	89	13%	<1%	15%	26%	1.1
Ross Barkley	63	12%	<1%	9%	20%	1.3
George Hemmings	60	7%	<1%	7%	14%	0.7
Boubacar Kamara	90	7%	<1%	10%	16%	0.6
Tammy Abraham bench	13	6%	<1%	1%	7%	0.4
Johan Manzambi bench	21	4%	<1%	3%	8%	0.5
Victor Lindelöf	90	4%	<1%	5%	9%	0.4
Ian Maatsen	69	4%	<1%	7%	10%	0.8
Tyrone Mings	51	4%	<1%	2%	6%	0.4
Alysson Edward bench	15	3%	<1%	2%	5%	0.2
Matthew Cash	58	3%	<1%	5%	8%	0.5
Pau Torres bench	39	2%	<1%	<1%	3%	0.2
João Gomes bench	26	2%	<1%	1%	3%	0.2
Alejandro Garnacho bench	5	1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Matteo Ruggeri bench	21	<1%	<1%	3%	4%	0.1
Aaron Wan-Bissaka bench	32	<1%	<1%	2%	2%	0.0
Zion Suzuki	72	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0
Marco Bizot bench	18	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0

Brentford

Brentford: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Thiago	89	40%	9%	7%	44%	2.0
Kevin Schade	90	24%	3%	10%	32%	1.6
Keane Lewis-Potter	84	11%	<1%	10%	20%	1.1
Jaidon Anthony	54	10%	<1%	6%	16%	0.9
Vitaly Janelt	90	9%	<1%	15%	23%	0.8
Dango Ouattara bench	36	9%	<1%	6%	15%	0.7
Mamadou Sangaré	66	7%	<1%	9%	15%	1.2
Mikkel Damsgaard	57	7%	<1%	12%	18%	0.7
Kristoffer Ajer	90	3%	<1%	4%	7%	0.4
Michael Kayode	61	3%	<1%	4%	7%	0.2
Nathan Collins bench	39	3%	<1%	3%	5%	0.3
Yehor Yarmolyuk bench	42	2%	<1%	3%	5%	0.3
Jannik Schuster	51	2%	<1%	7%	9%	0.3
Aaron Hickey bench	29	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Mathias Jensen bench	14	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
El Hadji Malick Diouf bench	6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0
Caoimhin Kelleher	90	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0