Ipswich v Fulham
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Ipswich 36, draw 28, Fulham 36. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:42 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Ipswich win | Draw | Fulham win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 45% | 35% | 47% | 55% |
| Fulham | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 43% | 52% | 44% | 34% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Ipswich goals down, Fulham goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | · |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emersonn | 25% | 9% | 1.9 |
| Julio Enciso | 20% | 17% | 2.4 |
| Leif Davis | 17% | 9% | 0.8 |
| Daizen Maeda | 9% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Sasa Lukic | 8% | 9% | 0.8 |
| Abdul Fatawu | 7% | 16% | 1.0 |
| Chuba Akpom bench | 7% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Jack Clarke bench | 6% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Zian Flemming bench | 5% | <1% | 0.3 |
| Issa Diop | 5% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Marcelino Núñez bench | 4% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Exequiel Palacios | 3% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Dara O'Shea | 3% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara bench | 3% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Jacob Greaves | 3% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace bench | 1% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Kasey McAteer bench | 1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Kjell Scherpen | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Christian Walton bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalo García | 38% | 13% | 2.4 |
| Joshua King | 19% | 11% | 1.9 |
| César Palacios | 11% | 6% | 1.1 |
| Alex Iwobi | 10% | 14% | 1.4 |
| Oscar Bobb | 8% | 13% | 1.0 |
| Shea Charles | 7% | 7% | 0.8 |
| Antonee Robinson | 6% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Timothy Castagne | 5% | 7% | 0.7 |
| Calvin Bassey | 4% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Sander Berge | 4% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Rodrigo Muniz bench | 2% | <1% | 0.2 |
| David Affengruber bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Joachim Andersen bench | 2% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Kevin bench | 2% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe bench | 1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Ryan Sessegnon bench | 1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Hugo Larsson bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Jorge Cuenca bench | <1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Kenny Tete bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Bernd Leno | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



