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Ipswich v Fulham

36%Ipswich
28%Draw
36%Fulham

Too close to call.

Tested

Out of 100: Ipswich 36, draw 28, Fulham 36. No result stands out.

Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:42 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals55%
Both teams score62%
Expected goals1.4 v 1.4
Most likely score1-114% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Ipswich4-2-3-13-3-3-1Fulham

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots12.914.6
Shots on target4.24.4
Corners4.85.2
Fouls10.010.2
Yellow cards1.51.9

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Ipswich v Fulham changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowIpswich winDrawFulham win
Ipswich
Bottom 345%35%47%55%
Fulham
Bottom 343%52%44%34%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals95%
2 or more goals80%
3 or more goals55%
4 or more goals32%
5 or more goals16%

Exactly

0 goals5%
1 goal15%
2 goals25%
3 goals23%
4 goals17%
5 goals9%
6 or more goals7%

Goals by team

Tested
Ipswich: 1 or more78%
Ipswich: 2 or more42%
Ipswich: 3 or more17%
Fulham: 1 or more78%
Fulham: 2 or more43%
Fulham: 3 or more17%
Both teams score62%
At least one team does not score38%

Winning margin

Tested
Ipswich by 3 or more6%
Ipswich by 211%
Ipswich by 120%
Draw28%
Fulham by 120%
Fulham by 211%
Fulham by 3 or more6%

Result combinations

Tested
Ipswich win or draw64%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Fulham win or draw64%

Clean sheets

Tested
Ipswich keep a clean sheet22%
Fulham keep a clean sheet22%
Ipswich win without conceding16%
Fulham win without conceding17%
No goals at all5%

The first goal

Model estimate
Ipswich score first47%
Fulham score first47%
No goals5%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1534%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Ipswich goals down, Fulham goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
05.57.45.62.60.90.2
17.313.78.94.11.40.4
25.58.87.13.01.00.3
32.54.02.91.50.50.1
40.81.31.00.40.2·
50.20.30.20.1··

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half72%
A goal in the second half80%
Ipswich ahead at half-time30%
Level at half-time42%
Fulham ahead at half-time28%
Ipswich win the second half31%
Second half level36%
Fulham win the second half33%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half45%
Same goals in both halves25%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Ipswich ahead at half-time, Ipswich win21%
Level at half-time, Ipswich win13%
Fulham ahead at half-time, Ipswich win2%
Ipswich ahead at half-time, draw6%
Level at half-time, draw16%
Fulham ahead at half-time, draw6%
Ipswich ahead at half-time, Fulham win3%
Level at half-time, Fulham win13%
Fulham ahead at half-time, Fulham win20%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
IpswichFulham

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Ipswich
Ipswich: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Emersonn6725%3%9%31%1.9
Julio Enciso8420%2%17%33%2.4
Leif Davis9017%2%9%24%0.8
Daizen Maeda529%<1%5%13%0.7
Sasa Lukic828%<1%9%16%0.8
Abdul Fatawu747%<1%16%22%1.0
Chuba Akpom bench147%<1%2%8%0.4
Jack Clarke bench356%<1%4%10%0.6
Zian Flemming bench105%<1%<1%6%0.3
Issa Diop905%<1%2%6%0.3
Marcelino Núñez bench294%<1%3%7%0.4
Exequiel Palacios563%<1%5%8%0.5
Dara O&#039;Shea903%<1%5%7%0.4
Guemissongui Ouattara bench253%<1%2%4%0.3
Jacob Greaves723%<1%3%6%0.3
Jaden Philogene-Bidace bench91%<1%1%2%0.2
Kasey McAteer bench71%<1%<1%2%0.1
Kjell Scherpen72<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Christian Walton bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Fulham
Fulham: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Gonzalo García8638%8%13%46%2.4
Joshua King8619%2%11%28%1.9
César Palacios4811%<1%6%16%1.1
Alex Iwobi8310%<1%14%23%1.4
Oscar Bobb718%<1%13%20%1.0
Shea Charles617%<1%7%14%0.8
Antonee Robinson876%<1%6%11%0.5
Timothy Castagne825%<1%7%12%0.7
Calvin Bassey904%<1%2%6%0.5
Sander Berge704%<1%6%9%0.5
Rodrigo Muniz bench62%<1%<1%3%0.2
David Affengruber bench362%<1%2%4%0.2
Joachim Andersen bench382%<1%1%3%0.2
Kevin bench112%<1%2%3%0.3
Emile Smith-Rowe bench61%<1%<1%2%0.1
Ryan Sessegnon bench91%<1%<1%2%0.1
Hugo Larsson bench6<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Jorge Cuenca bench18<1%<1%1%2%0.1
Kenny Tete bench5<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Bernd Leno90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0