Lab

Which matches change the races most?

RasenBallsport Leipzig v Elversberg (Sat 24 Oct) moves a race more than any other coming match: RasenBallsport Leipzig's top four chance is 66 in 100 if RasenBallsport Leipzig win, 56 after a draw and 48 if Elversberg win.

League data to · Vesta · each result against 10,000 runs of the season

FreePro adds every coming match, not only the top five

18 coming matches, the biggest swing firstBiggest swings 18 matches

each side's chance if the home side wins · draws · the away side wins
CSV
RasenBallsport LeipzigvElversbergSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 68 · 20 · 13
Side and raceRBL winDrawSVE winNow
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four66564861
Elversbergbottom three139411
Elversbergtop four1221
PaderbornvHamburger SVSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 28 · 24
Side and racePAD winDrawHSV winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three53433546
Paderbornbottom three22313728
Bayer LeverkusenvFreiburgSun 18 Oct, 15:30 CESTSun 15:30
Vesta 57 · 23 · 20
Side and raceB04 winDrawSCF winNow
Freiburgtop four28354633
Bayer Leverkusentop four84766879
Bayer Leverkusentitle2112
VfB StuttgartvBorussia M.GladbachFri 23 Oct, 20:30 CESTFri 20:30
Vesta 69 · 18 · 13
Side and raceVFB winDrawBMG winNow
Borussia M.Gladbachbottom three71655468
VfB Stuttgarttop four32251929
Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 21 · 23 · 55
Side and raceHSV winDrawVFB winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three35435146
VfB Stuttgarttop four21253429
AugsburgvUnion BerlinSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 26 · 26
Side and raceFCA winDrawFCU winNow
Union Berlinbottom three56494050
Augsburgbottom three10162014
Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 18 · 25 · 58
Side and raceFCU winDrawBVB winNow
Union Berlinbottom three38505350
Borussia Dortmundtop four81828986
Borussia Dortmundtitle2243
Borussia M.GladbachvHoffenheimSun 18 Oct, 17:30 CESTSun 17:30
Vesta 32 · 25 · 43
Side and raceBMG winDrawTSG winNow
Borussia M.Gladbachbottom three59707468
Hoffenheimbottom three11858
Hoffenheimtop four1132
Bayern MunichvRasenBallsport LeipzigSat 17 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 73 · 16 · 11
Side and raceFCB winDrawRBL winNow
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four59647361
Bayern Munichtitle96939095
RasenBallsport Leipzigtitle<1121
FC ColognevSchalke 04Sat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 46 · 27 · 28
Side and raceKOE winDrawS04 winNow
Schalke 04bottom three29221523
FC Colognebottom three15242821
Werder BremenvPaderbornSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 43 · 29 · 28
Side and raceSVW winDrawPAD winNow
Paderbornbottom three34282028
Werder Bremenbottom three8141813
FreiburgvBayern MunichSun 25 Oct, 17:30 CETSun 17:30
Vesta 15 · 20 · 65
Side and raceSCF winDrawFCB winNow
Freiburgtop four44353133
Bayern Munichtitle91939695
HoffenheimvBayer LeverkusenSun 25 Oct, 15:30 CETSun 15:30
Vesta 29 · 25 · 46
Side and raceTSG winDrawB04 winNow
Bayer Leverkusentop four72788479
Hoffenheimbottom three47108
Hoffenheimtop four3212
Bayer Leverkusentitle1122
Schalke 04vMainz 05Sat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 33 · 26 · 40
Side and raceS04 winDrawM05 winNow
Schalke 04bottom three17232823
Mainz 05top four3585
Mainz 05bottom three3312
Borussia DortmundvEintracht FrankfurtSat 24 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 69 · 19 · 12
Side and raceBVB winDrawSGE winNow
Borussia Dortmundtop four88837886
Eintracht Frankfurtbottom three18141016
Borussia Dortmundtitle3223
ElversbergvAugsburgSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 46 · 26 · 28
Side and raceSVE winDrawFCA winNow
Augsburgbottom three1814914
Elversbergbottom three7131611
Elversbergtop four21<11
ElversbergvMainz 05Fri 30 Oct, 20:30 CETFri 20:30
Vesta 35 · 26 · 39
Side and raceSVE winDrawM05 winNow
Elversbergbottom three7111411
Mainz 05top four4485
Mainz 05bottom three3212
Elversbergtop four21<11
Mainz 05vWerder BremenSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 55 · 24 · 21
Side and raceM05 winDrawSVW winNow
Werder Bremenbottom three1413713
Mainz 05top four7435
Mainz 05bottom three2242

For each coming league match Vesta's 10,000 runs of the season are split by the result of that match: the share of runs where a side finishes first, in the top four or in the bottom three, among the runs with a home win, a draw or an away win. "Now" weighs the three by how often each result comes up. Green = the side's best result, red = its worst. Chances in 100.

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