Lab

Which matches change the races most?

Le Havre v Auxerre (Sun 18 Oct) moves a race more than any other coming match: Auxerre's bottom three chance is 61 in 100 if Le Havre win, 52 after a draw and 39 if Auxerre win.

League data to · Vesta · each result against 10,000 runs of the season

FreePro adds every coming match, not only the top five

107 coming matches, the biggest swing firstBiggest swings 107 matches

each side's chance if the home side wins · draws · the away side wins
CSV
Le HavrevAuxerreSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 49 · 28 · 23
Side and raceHAC winDrawAUX winNow
Auxerrebottom three61523953
Le Havrebottom three34465442
OsasunavRacing SantanderSun 18 Oct, 14:00 CESTSun 14:00
Vesta 48 · 26 · 26
Side and raceOSA winDrawRAC winNow
Racing Santanderbottom three43372436
Osasunabottom three20273526
AuxerrevLe MansSun 25 Oct, 17:15 CETSun 17:15
Vesta 38 · 28 · 34
Side and raceAUX winDrawLMN winNow
Le Mansbottom three49433141
Auxerrebottom three45536353
Paris FCvRennesSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 39 · 28 · 33
Side and racePFC winDrawREN winNow
Rennestop four36445444
Paris FCtop four28221622
Rennestitle3475
Paris FCbottom three<1111
MonacovLilleSun 25 Oct, 15:00 CETSun 15:00
Vesta 42 · 29 · 28
Side and raceASM winDrawLIL winNow
Lilletop four32385139
Monacotop four68585260
Monacotitle139710
Lilletitle3364
ToulousevTroyesSat 24 Oct, 17:15 CESTSat 17:15
Vesta 61 · 23 · 17
Side and raceTFC winDrawTRO winNow
Troyesbottom three62554457
Toulousetop four20141117
Toulousebottom three1221
ParmavUdineseWed 28 Oct, 18:30 CETWed 18:30
Vesta 33 · 31 · 37
Side and racePAR winDrawUDI winNow
Parmabottom three49616759
Udinesebottom three34251825
MarseillevLe HavreSun 25 Oct, 17:15 CETSun 17:15
Vesta 52 · 26 · 22
Side and raceMAR winDrawHAC winNow
Le Havrebottom three47422942
Marseilletop four1611813
Marseillebottom three1342
LillevLensFri 30 Oct, 21:05 CETFri 21:05
Vesta 36 · 29 · 36
Side and raceLIL winDrawRCL winNow
Lenstop four27354435
Lilletop four49373239
Lilletitle6324
Lenstitle2353
UdinesevLecceSun 18 Oct, 12:30 CESTSun 12:30
Vesta 54 · 27 · 19
Side and raceUDI winDrawLEC winNow
Leccebottom three77695972
Udinesebottom three20293625
RasenBallsport LeipzigvElversbergSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 68 · 20 · 13
Side and raceRBL winDrawSVE winNow
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four66564861
Elversbergbottom three139411
Elversbergtop four1221
PaderbornvHamburger SVSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 28 · 24
Side and racePAD winDrawHSV winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three53433546
Paderbornbottom three22313728
LyonvNiceSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 61 · 24 · 15
Side and raceLYO winDrawNCE winNow
Lyontop four62514457
Nicebottom three29261726
Lyontitle10648
GetafevRayo VallecanoMon 19 Oct, 21:00 CESTMon 21:00
Vesta 32 · 33 · 35
Side and raceGET winDrawRAY winNow
Getafebottom three29394638
Rayo Vallecanobottom three10646
Rayo Vallecanotop four1121
AngersvMarseilleSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 24 · 27 · 49
Side and raceANG winDrawMAR winNow
Angersbottom three42535953
Marseilletop four9101713
Marseillebottom three4312
AngersvLorientSun 25 Oct, 17:15 CETSun 17:15
Vesta 28 · 30 · 41
Side and raceANG winDrawLOR winNow
Angersbottom three43536053
Lorientbottom three10747
Lorienttop four3475
Bayer LeverkusenvFreiburgSun 18 Oct, 15:30 CESTSun 15:30
Vesta 57 · 23 · 20
Side and raceB04 winDrawSCF winNow
Freiburgtop four28354633
Bayer Leverkusentop four84766879
Bayer Leverkusentitle2112
JuventusvLazioSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 52 · 28 · 21
Side and raceJUV winDrawLAZ winNow
Juventustop four52403445
Laziotop four15182718
Juventustitle2112
NapolivRomaSat 24 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 33 · 29 · 38
Side and raceNAP winDrawROM winNow
Napolitop four58474148
Romatitle16212521
Romatop four88929592
Napolititle3212
LaziovParmaSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 57 · 27 · 16
Side and raceLAZ winDrawPAR winNow
Parmabottom three63594659
Laziotop four21161218
Showing 20 of 107Show 20 more

For each coming league match Vesta's 10,000 runs of the season are split by the result of that match: the share of runs where a side finishes first, in the top four or in the bottom three, among the runs with a home win, a draw or an away win. "Now" weighs the three by how often each result comes up. Green = the side's best result, red = its worst. Chances in 100.

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