Which matches change the races most?

15 coming matches in the next 8 days, the biggest swing firstBiggest swings 15 matches

each side's chance if the home side wins · draws · the away side wins

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TottenhamvCoventryMon 19 Oct, 21:00 CESTMon 21:00

TOT 45%X 28%COV 27%

Vesta 45 · 28 · 27

Side and race	TOT win	Draw	COV win	Now
Tottenhambottom three	40	52	57	48
Coventrybottom three	50	41	33	43

CoventryvFulhamSat 24 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00

COV 30%X 29%FUL 41%

Vesta 30 · 29 · 41

Side and race	COV win	Draw	FUL win	Now
Coventrybottom three	33	43	49	43
Fulhambottom three	31	27	19	25

BrightonvCrystal PalaceSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00

BHA 62%X 22%CRY 16%

Vesta 62 · 22 · 16

Side and race	BHA win	Draw	CRY win	Now
Crystal Palacebottom three	39	32	24	35
Brightontop four	72	62	59	68
Brightontitle	3	1	1	3

BrentfordvLiverpoolSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00

BRE 35%X 27%LIV 38%

Vesta 35 · 27 · 38

Side and race	BRE win	Draw	LIV win	Now
Liverpooltop four	30	35	44	37
Brentfordtop four	19	12	10	13
Brentfordbottom three	1	2	3	2

IpswichvNottingham ForestFri 23 Oct, 21:00 CESTFri 21:00

IPS 30%X 28%NFO 42%

Vesta 30 · 28 · 42

Side and race	IPS win	Draw	NFO win	Now
Ipswichbottom three	23	34	38	32
Nottingham Forestbottom three	18	14	9	13
Nottingham Foresttop four	2	2	4	3

ChelseavTottenhamSat 24 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30

CHE 55%X 25%TOT 20%

Vesta 55 · 25 · 20

Side and race	CHE win	Draw	TOT win	Now
Tottenhambottom three	52	47	38	48
Chelseatop four	42	32	30	37

FulhamvHullSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00

FUL 46%X 29%HUL 25%

Vesta 46 · 29 · 26

Side and race	FUL win	Draw	HUL win	Now
Fulhambottom three	19	27	33	25
Hullbottom three	19	14	9	15
Hulltop four	1	2	3	2
Fulhamtop four	2	1	<1	1

EvertonvChelseaSat 17 Oct, 13:30 CESTSat 13:30

EVE 33%X 28%CHE 39%

Vesta 33 · 28 · 39

Side and race	EVE win	Draw	CHE win	Now
Chelseatop four	30	35	44	37
Evertonbottom three	3	6	9	6
Evertontop four	9	5	4	6

BournemouthvSunderlandSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00

BOU 46%X 29%SUN 25%

Vesta 46 · 29 · 25

Side and race	BOU win	Draw	SUN win	Now
Sunderlandbottom three	33	26	19	27
Bournemouthbottom three	9	14	17	12
Bournemouthtop four	4	3	2	3

Newcastle UnitedvAston VillaSat 17 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30

NEW 43%X 27%AVL 30%

Vesta 43 · 28 · 30

Side and race	NEW win	Draw	AVL win	Now
Aston Villabottom three	27	22	15	22
Newcastle Unitedbottom three	7	12	17	12
Newcastle Unitedtop four	5	3	2	3
Aston Villatop four	1	1	2	1

Manchester CityvIpswichSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00

MCI 75%X 16%IPS 9%

Vesta 75 · 16 · 9

Side and race	MCI win	Draw	IPS win	Now
Ipswichbottom three	34	30	23	32
Manchester Citytitle	59	50	48	57
Manchester Citytop four	99	99	98	99

Aston VillavManchester CitySat 24 Oct, 13:30 CESTSat 13:30

AVL 19%X 25%MCI 56%

Vesta 19 · 24 · 56

Side and race	AVL win	Draw	MCI win	Now
Manchester Citytitle	49	53	61	57
Aston Villabottom three	14	21	26	22
Aston Villatop four	2	1	1	1

ArsenalvEvertonSat 24 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00

ARS 65%X 22%EVE 13%

Vesta 65 · 22 · 13

Side and race	ARS win	Draw	EVE win	Now
Arsenaltitle	43	34	32	40
Evertonbottom three	7	6	3	6
Evertontop four	5	7	9	6
Arsenaltop four	99	98	96	98

Nottingham ForestvArsenalSun 18 Oct, 17:30 CESTSun 17:30

NFO 19%X 27%ARS 54%

Vesta 19 · 27 · 54

Side and race	NFO win	Draw	ARS win	Now
Arsenaltitle	33	36	44	40
Nottingham Forestbottom three	8	13	15	13
Nottingham Foresttop four	4	4	2	3
Arsenaltop four	97	98	99	98

LeedsvManchester UnitedSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00

LEE 35%X 27%MUN 38%

Vesta 35 · 27 · 38

Side and race	LEE win	Draw	MUN win	Now
Manchester Unitedtop four	12	15	21	16
Leedstop four	13	8	7	9
Leedsbottom three	2	4	5	4
Manchester Unitedbottom three	3	2	1	2

For each coming league match Vesta's 10,000 runs of the season are split by the result of that match: the share of runs where a side finishes first, in the top four or in the bottom three, among the runs with a home win, a draw or an away win. "Now" weighs the three by how often each result comes up. Green = the side's best result, red = its worst. Chances in 100.