Lab

Which matches change the races most?

Udinese v Lecce (Sun 18 Oct) moves a race more than any other coming match: Lecce's bottom three chance is 77 in 100 if Udinese win, 69 after a draw and 59 if Lecce win.

League data to · Vesta · each result against 10,000 runs of the season

FreePro adds every coming match, not only the top five

14 coming matches in the next 8 days, the biggest swing firstBiggest swings 14 matches

each side's chance if the home side wins · draws · the away side wins
CSV
UdinesevLecceSun 18 Oct, 12:30 CESTSun 12:30
Vesta 54 · 27 · 19
Side and raceUDI winDrawLEC winNow
Leccebottom three77695972
Udinesebottom three20293625
JuventusvLazioSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 52 · 28 · 21
Side and raceJUV winDrawLAZ winNow
Juventustop four52403445
Laziotop four15182718
Juventustitle2112
NapolivRomaSat 24 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 33 · 29 · 38
Side and raceNAP winDrawROM winNow
Napolitop four58474148
Romatitle16212521
Romatop four88929592
Napolititle3212
LaziovParmaSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 57 · 27 · 16
Side and raceLAZ winDrawPAR winNow
Parmabottom three63594659
Laziotop four21161218
ParmavTorinoMon 19 Oct, 20:45 CESTMon 20:45
Vesta 29 · 31 · 39
Side and racePAR winDrawTOR winNow
Parmabottom three49616659
Torinobottom three131059
AC MilanvAtalantaSun 18 Oct, 18:00 CESTSun 18:00
Vesta 48 · 29 · 24
Side and raceMIL winDrawATA winNow
AC Milantop four40312634
Atalantatop four3696
VeneziavNapoliSat 17 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 17 · 24 · 59
Side and raceVEN winDrawNAP winNow
Veneziabottom three59697470
Napolitop four39435348
FiorentinavComoSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 24 · 27 · 49
Side and raceFIO winDrawCOM winNow
Comotop four45495852
Fiorentinabottom three691210
Comotitle2243
ComovSassuoloSat 24 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 60 · 24 · 17
Side and raceCOM winDrawSAS winNow
Comotop four57484352
Sassuolobottom three6425
Comotitle3223
TorinovMonzaFri 23 Oct, 20:45 CESTFri 20:45
Vesta 41 · 29 · 31
Side and raceTOR winDrawMZA winNow
Monzabottom three26191420
Torinobottom three59149
BolognavInterSat 17 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 17 · 25 · 57
Side and raceBOL winDrawINT winNow
Intertitle64697572
Bolognabottom three2343
Intertop four98999999
MonzavCagliariMon 19 Oct, 18:30 CESTMon 18:30
Vesta 41 · 29 · 30
Side and raceMZA winDrawCAG winNow
Monzabottom three15212620
Cagliaribottom three4313
RomavGenoaSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 68 · 21 · 11
Side and raceROM winDrawGEN winNow
Genoabottom three24211423
Romatitle23171421
Romatop four94898792
CagliarivBolognaSat 24 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 29 · 32 · 39
Side and raceCAG winDrawBOL winNow
Bolognabottom three5423
Cagliaribottom three1343

For each coming league match Vesta's 10,000 runs of the season are split by the result of that match: the share of runs where a side finishes first, in the top four or in the bottom three, among the runs with a home win, a draw or an away win. "Now" weighs the three by how often each result comes up. Green = the side's best result, red = its worst. Chances in 100.

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