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Which matches change the races most?

Le Havre v Auxerre (Sun 18 Oct) moves a race more than any other coming match: Auxerre's bottom three chance is 61 in 100 if Le Havre win, 52 after a draw and 39 if Auxerre win.

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · each result against 10,000 runs of the season

FreePro adds every coming match, not only the top five

11 coming matches in the next 8 days, the biggest swing firstBiggest swings 11 matches

each side's chance if the home side wins · draws · the away side wins

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Le HavrevAuxerreSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15

HAC 49%X 28%AUX 23%

Vesta 49 · 28 · 23

Side and race	HAC win	Draw	AUX win	Now
Auxerrebottom three	61	52	39	53
Le Havrebottom three	34	46	54	42

Paris FCvRennesSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15

PFC 39%X 28%REN 33%

Vesta 39 · 28 · 33

Side and race	PFC win	Draw	REN win	Now
Rennestop four	36	44	54	44
Paris FCtop four	28	22	16	22
Rennestitle	3	4	7	5
Paris FCbottom three	<1	1	1	1

ToulousevTroyesSat 24 Oct, 17:15 CESTSat 17:15

TFC 61%X 23%TRO 16%

Vesta 61 · 23 · 17

Side and race	TFC win	Draw	TRO win	Now
Troyesbottom three	62	55	44	57
Toulousetop four	20	14	11	17
Toulousebottom three	1	2	2	1

LyonvNiceSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45

LYO 61%X 24%NCE 15%

Vesta 61 · 24 · 15

Side and race	LYO win	Draw	NCE win	Now
Lyontop four	62	51	44	57
Nicebottom three	29	26	17	26
Lyontitle	10	6	4	8

AngersvMarseilleSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00

ANG 24%X 27%MAR 49%

Vesta 24 · 27 · 49

Side and race	ANG win	Draw	MAR win	Now
Angersbottom three	42	53	59	53
Marseilletop four	9	10	17	13
Marseillebottom three	4	3	1	2

LillevBrestSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45

LIL 46%X 28%BRS 26%

Vesta 46 · 28 · 26

Side and race	LIL win	Draw	BRS win	Now
Lilletop four	46	36	31	39
Bresttop four	5	6	10	6
Brestbottom three	7	5	3	5
Lilletitle	5	3	2	4

LorientvMonacoSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15

LOR 33%X 30%ASM 37%

Vesta 33 · 30 · 37

Side and race	LOR win	Draw	ASM win	Now
Monacotop four	54	58	68	60
Lorientbottom three	3	7	9	7
Monacotitle	8	8	13	10
Lorienttop four	7	4	4	5

StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainSat 17 Oct, 17:15 CESTSat 17:15

RCS 18%X 24%PSG 58%

Vesta 18 · 24 · 58

Side and race	RCS win	Draw	PSG win	Now
Paris Saint Germaintitle	57	63	72	67
Strasbourgbottom three	5	9	11	10
Strasbourgtop four	6	3	3	3
Paris Saint Germaintop four	94	95	97	96

TroyesvLensSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45

TRO 21%X 25%RCL 54%

Vesta 21 · 24 · 54

Side and race	TRO win	Draw	RCL win	Now
Troyesbottom three	47	56	61	57
Lenstop four	27	31	40	35
Lenstitle	2	2	4	3

LensvParis FCSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45

RCL 50%X 26%PFC 24%

Vesta 50 · 26 · 24

Side and race	RCL win	Draw	PFC win	Now
Paris FCtop four	17	23	31	22
Lenstop four	41	32	27	35
Lenstitle	4	2	2	3
Paris FCtitle	1	1	2	1

BrestvNiceFri 23 Oct, 20:45 CESTFri 20:45

BRS 50%X 27%NCE 23%

Vesta 50 · 28 · 23

Side and race	BRS win	Draw	NCE win	Now
Nicebottom three	30	26	18	26
Bresttop four	9	5	3	6
Brestbottom three	4	7	8	5

For each coming league match Vesta's 10,000 runs of the season are split by the result of that match: the share of runs where a side finishes first, in the top four or in the bottom three, among the runs with a home win, a draw or an away win. "Now" weighs the three by how often each result comes up. Green = the side's best result, red = its worst. Chances in 100.

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