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Who wins the league, and how likely?

Vesta gives Barcelona 93 in 100 to win La Liga. Real Madrid are next at 6 in 100; 3 sides still win it in at least 1 run in 100.

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · 10,000 runs of the season, Sat 17 Oct

FreePro adds every position's chance and the week's movers

What moved since Fri 16 Oct

changes of 3 in 100 or more in the title, top-four and bottom-three chances

The projected table

ordered by Vesta's average finishing position; points range = 8 runs in 10

CSV

Side	Pl	Pts	Final points	Title	Top four	Bottom three
Barcelona1st now	8	24	92 84–99	93	100	0
Real Madrid4th now	8	18	78 70–86	6	98	0
Atletico Madrid2nd now	8	19	73 64–81	2	92	0
Real Betis3rd now	8	19	64 55–72	<1	49	<1
Villarreal11th now	8	8	60 52–69	<1	30	<1
Athletic Club10th now	6	8	58 49–67	0	18	<1
Sevilla5th now	8	14	54 45–62	0	6	1
Real Sociedad6th now	8	13	49 41–58	0	2	4
Deportivo La Coruna8th now	9	11	49 40–57	0	2	4
Alaves7th now	8	11	48 40–57	0	2	4
Rayo Vallecano13th now	7	8	48 39–57	0	1	6
Celta Vigo9th now	8	8	44 36–52	0	<1	13
Espanyol12th now	8	8	44 35–52	0	<1	16
Levante17th now	8	7	42 34–51	0	<1	22
Osasuna16th now	8	8	42 33–50	0	<1	26
Elche18th now	8	6	41 32–49	0	<1	29
Valencia19th now	8	5	40 31–49	0	<1	34
Racing Santander15th now	8	8	40 32–48	0	<1	36
Getafe14th now	8	8	39 31–47	0	<1	38
Malaga20th now	8	4	35 27–43	0	0	66

Goals expected over the whole seasonSeason goals

final totals, average of the runs; range = 8 runs in 10

Side	Wins	Draws	Defeats	Goals for	Goals against
Barcelona	28.8	5.3	3.8	111 100–122	38 31–45
Real Madrid	23.7	6.7	7.6	80 71–90	40 33–47
Atletico Madrid	21.4	8.5	8.1	71 62–79	42 35–49
Real Betis	18.2	9.0	10.8	59 51–67	49 41–57
Villarreal	17.0	9.5	11.5	65 56–74	49 41–56
Athletic Club	15.5	11.0	11.4	52 44–61	43 36–50
Sevilla	14.4	10.4	13.1	51 43–59	52 45–60
Real Sociedad	13.4	9.0	15.6	51 43–59	62 54–70
Deportivo La Coruna	11.9	13.1	13.0	49 42–57	51 44–59
Alaves	12.7	10.3	15.0	49 42–57	51 43–59
Rayo Vallecano	12.4	10.6	15.0	50 43–58	59 51–67
Celta Vigo	10.2	13.4	14.4	43 36–51	49 41–57
Espanyol	11.1	10.3	16.6	46 39–54	55 47–63
Levante	10.2	11.9	16.0	51 43–58	64 56–73
Osasuna	10.6	10.0	17.5	44 37–52	66 58–75
Elche	9.9	11.1	17.0	47 40–54	63 55–71
Valencia	9.9	10.3	17.8	41 34–48	59 51–67
Racing Santander	10.1	9.5	18.4	51 43–59	76 67–85
Getafe	9.4	10.9	17.6	32 25–38	51 43–58
Malaga	7.6	12.0	18.4	36 30–43	61 53–70

Vesta plays the rest of the season 10,000 times from today's table, each match drawn from its forecast for that match (the same model as every published forecast; data to Fri 16 Oct). Season projections are checked against the final tables when the season ends. How Vesta works · La Liga page

What moved since Fri 16 Oct

The projected table

Goals expected over the whole seasonSeason goals

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