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Who wins the league, and how likely?

Vesta gives Bayern Munich 95 in 100 to win Bundesliga. Borussia Dortmund are next at 3 in 100; 3 sides still win it in at least 1 run in 100.

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · 10,000 runs of the season, Sat 17 Oct

FreePro adds every position's chance and the week's movers

What moved since Fri 16 Oct

changes of 3 in 100 or more in the title, top-four and bottom-three chances

• Eintracht Frankfurtbottom three16 −7
• FC Colognebottom three21 +7

The projected table

ordered by Vesta's average finishing position; points range = 8 runs in 10

CSV Share view

Side	Pl	Pts	Final points	Title	Top four	Bottom three	Every position
Bayern Munich3rd now	5	11	81 74–88	95	>99	0
Borussia Dortmund2nd now	5	13	65 56–73	3	86	0
Bayer Leverkusen4th now	5	10	63 54–71	2	79	<1
RasenBallsport Leipzig5th now	5	9	59 51–68	1	61	<1
Freiburg1st now	5	13	55 46–64	<1	33	<1
VfB Stuttgart12th now	5	6	54 46–63	<1	29	<1
Mainz 059th now	5	7	47 38–56	0	5	2
Hoffenheim17th now	5	3	43 35–52	0	2	8
Elversberg10th now	5	7	42 33–50	0	1	11
Werder Bremen7th now	5	8	41 33–50	0	1	13
Augsburg6th now	5	8	41 32–49	0	1	14
Eintracht Frankfurt8th now	6	8	41 32–49	0	1	16
FC Cologne11th now	6	7	39 31–47	0	<1	21
Schalke 0414th now	5	5	38 30–47	0	<1	23
Paderborn15th now	5	4	38 29–46	0	<1	28
Hamburger SV13th now	5	6	35 27–43	0	<1	46
Union Berlin16th now	5	4	34 26–42	0	<1	50
Borussia M.Gladbach18th now	5	0	31 23–39	0	0	68

Goals expected over the whole seasonSeason goals

final totals, average of the runs; range = 8 runs in 10

Side	Wins	Draws	Defeats	Goals for	Goals against
Bayern Munich	25.0	6.1	2.9	105 94–116	36 29–43
Borussia Dortmund	19.0	7.9	7.1	66 57–75	41 33–48
Bayer Leverkusen	18.4	7.4	8.2	75 65–85	49 41–56
RasenBallsport Leipzig	17.5	6.7	9.8	72 63–82	47 39–55
Freiburg	15.6	8.3	10.1	61 52–69	48 40–56
VfB Stuttgart	15.9	6.7	11.4	65 56–74	53 45–61
Mainz 05	13.1	7.9	13.0	62 53–71	60 51–68
Hoffenheim	12.1	7.1	14.8	57 48–65	61 53–69
Elversberg	11.2	8.2	14.6	49 41–57	58 50–67
Werder Bremen	10.7	9.3	14.0	49 41–57	60 52–69
Augsburg	10.6	8.9	14.5	56 48–64	64 55–73
Eintracht Frankfurt	10.6	8.8	14.7	51 43–59	68 59–77
FC Cologne	10.4	7.8	15.7	47 40–55	62 53–70
Schalke 04	9.7	9.3	15.0	44 36–52	57 48–65
Paderborn	9.7	8.5	15.8	40 33–48	55 46–63
Hamburger SV	9.3	7.0	17.6	42 34–49	70 62–79
Union Berlin	8.6	8.3	17.1	42 34–49	69 60–78
Borussia M.Gladbach	8.0	6.9	19.1	48 40–56	75 65–84

Vesta plays the rest of the season 10,000 times from today's table, each match drawn from its forecast for that match (the same model as every published forecast; data to Fri 16 Oct). Season projections are checked against the final tables when the season ends. How Vesta works · Bundesliga page

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