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Who wins the league, and how likely?

Vesta gives Inter 72 in 100 to win Serie A. Roma are next at 21 in 100; 5 sides still win it in at least 1 run in 100.

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · 10,000 runs of the season, Sat 17 Oct

FreePro adds every position's chance and the week's movers

The projected table

ordered by Vesta's average finishing position; points range = 8 runs in 10

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Side	Pl	Pts	Final points	Title	Top four	Bottom three	Every position
Inter1st now	6	16	82 74–91	72	99	0
Roma3rd now	6	14	75 67–84	21	92	0
Como8th now	6	11	66 57–75	3	52	0
Napoli9th now	6	10	66 57–75	2	48	0
Juventus7th now	6	11	65 56–74	2	45	0
AC Milan6th now	6	12	63 54–73	1	34	<1
Lazio2nd now	6	16	60 51–69	<1	18	<1
Atalanta10th now	6	9	55 46–64	<1	6	<1
Frosinone4th now	7	13	52 43–61	<1	3	1
Cagliari5th now	6	13	49 40–58	0	1	3
Bologna14th now	6	5	49 39–58	0	1	3
Sassuolo11th now	7	8	47 38–56	0	<1	5
Torino12th now	6	7	45 36–54	0	<1	9
Fiorentina19th now	6	4	45 36–54	0	<1	10
Monza16th now	6	4	41 33–50	0	<1	20
Genoa17th now	6	4	41 32–50	0	<1	23
Udinese15th now	6	4	40 32–49	0	<1	25
Parma18th now	6	4	35 26–43	0	0	59
Venezia20th now	6	0	33 24–41	0	0	70
Lecce13th now	6	6	33 25–41	0	0	72

Goals expected over the whole seasonSeason goals

final totals, average of the runs; range = 8 runs in 10

Side	Wins	Draws	Defeats	Goals for	Goals against
Inter	24.8	8.0	5.2	86 76–96	40 34–47
Roma	21.9	9.8	6.3	72 63–82	35 28–42
Como	18.6	10.6	8.8	61 52–69	40 33–48
Napoli	18.7	9.5	9.8	62 53–71	40 33–47
Juventus	18.1	10.9	9.0	57 49–66	38 31–45
AC Milan	17.1	11.8	9.1	59 51–68	43 35–50
Lazio	16.6	10.0	11.4	53 45–61	46 38–54
Atalanta	15.3	8.8	13.9	54 45–62	51 43–59
Frosinone	14.4	9.1	14.5	56 48–64	58 49–66
Cagliari	13.0	10.2	14.9	41 34–48	48 40–57
Bologna	12.4	11.3	14.3	45 37–53	47 39–55
Sassuolo	12.3	10.3	15.4	53 45–61	60 52–69
Torino	11.7	9.9	16.4	44 37–52	55 47–63
Fiorentina	11.7	9.7	16.5	49 41–57	60 52–68
Monza	10.6	9.6	17.8	49 41–57	64 56–73
Genoa	10.3	10.0	17.7	41 34–48	57 48–65
Udinese	10.2	9.7	18.1	47 39–54	62 53–70
Parma	8.3	9.8	19.9	35 28–42	59 51–68
Venezia	8.2	8.2	21.7	43 36–51	72 63–81
Lecce	8.2	8.1	21.7	36 29–43	68 59–77

Vesta plays the rest of the season 10,000 times from today's table, each match drawn from its forecast for that match (the same model as every published forecast; data to Fri 16 Oct). Season projections are checked against the final tables when the season ends. How Vesta works · Serie A page

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