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Who wins the league, and how likely?

Vesta gives Paris Saint Germain 67 in 100 to win Ligue 1 (down 2 since Fri 16 Oct). Monaco are next at 10 in 100; 7 sides still win it in at least 1 run in 100.

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · 10,000 runs of the season, Sat 17 Oct

FreePro adds every position's chance and the week's movers

What moved since Fri 16 Oct

changes of 3 in 100 or more in the title, top-four and bottom-three chances

• Le Mansbottom three41 +15
• Toulousetop four17 +10
• Toulousebottom three1 −4
• Le Havrebottom three42 −3

The projected table

ordered by Vesta's average finishing position; points range = 8 runs in 10

CSV Share view

Side	Pl	Pts	Final points	Title	Top four	Bottom three	Every position
Paris Saint Germain6th now	6	11	67 59–75	67	96	0
Monaco1st now	6	14	58 49–66	10	60	<1
Lyon4th now	6	11	57 48–65	8	57	<1
Rennes3rd now	6	13	55 46–64	5	44	<1
Lille2nd now	6	13	54 45–63	4	39	<1
Lens11th now	6	7	53 44–62	3	35	<1
Paris FC5th now	6	11	51 42–59	1	22	1
Toulouse7th now	7	9	49 41–58	1	17	1
Marseille14th now	6	6	48 39–57	1	13	2
Brest8th now	6	8	45 37–54	<1	6	5
Lorient9th now	6	8	44 36–53	<1	5	7
Strasbourg12th now	6	7	43 35–52	<1	3	10
Nice10th now	6	8	39 31–47	<1	1	26
Le Mans15th now	7	6	36 28–44	0	<1	41
Le Havre18th now	6	2	36 27–44	0	<1	42
Auxerre16th now	6	6	34 26–43	<1	<1	53
Angers13th now	6	7	34 26–42	0	<1	53
Troyes17th now	6	4	34 26–42	0	<1	57

Goals expected over the whole seasonSeason goals

final totals, average of the runs; range = 8 runs in 10

Side	Wins	Draws	Defeats	Goals for	Goals against
Paris Saint Germain	19.6	8.4	6.0	66 57–75	36 29–42
Monaco	15.9	9.7	8.4	52 44–60	39 32–47
Lyon	15.7	9.6	8.8	55 47–64	38 31–45
Rennes	15.5	8.5	10.0	54 46–62	46 39–54
Lille	15.0	9.0	10.0	48 40–56	39 32–46
Lens	14.9	8.2	10.9	59 51–68	47 39–54
Paris FC	13.6	9.9	10.5	46 39–54	40 33–47
Toulouse	13.0	10.2	10.8	53 45–61	47 40–55
Marseille	13.5	7.4	13.1	54 46–62	47 40–55
Brest	11.8	9.6	12.6	51 43–59	50 42–58
Lorient	11.5	10.0	12.5	41 34–49	44 36–51
Strasbourg	11.5	8.6	13.9	49 42–57	53 45–61
Nice	9.7	9.6	14.7	38 31–45	51 43–59
Le Mans	8.6	10.1	15.2	44 37–52	60 51–68
Le Havre	8.6	9.8	15.6	39 32–46	49 41–57
Auxerre	8.9	7.6	17.5	39 33–46	62 53–70
Angers	8.6	8.4	17.0	37 30–44	56 48–65
Troyes	8.5	8.4	17.2	38 31–45	60 51–68

Vesta plays the rest of the season 10,000 times from today's table, each match drawn from its forecast for that match (the same model as every published forecast; data to Fri 16 Oct). Season projections are checked against the final tables when the season ends. How Vesta works · Ligue 1 page

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