Como v Manchester United
Champions League 2026-27 · League phase, matchday 3
Published before kick-off ·
Como, just.
Como win about 44 times in 100. The other 56: a draw (25) or a Manchester United win (31).
- Goals expected
- 1.5–1.2
- Likeliest score
- 1–112%
- Three goals or more
- 52%
- Both sides score
- 55%
Published Sun 18 Oct before kick-off and never changed. Vesta's cups model works from the clubs' ratings and the venue; it is checked apart from the leagues, and its numbers below the result are model estimates, not yet tested one by one.
What the league phase puts on the line
12th, 3 pts from 2 matches
3 pts behind 8th (the last 16) · in the play-off places
13th, 3 pts from 2 matches
3 pts behind 8th (the last 16) · in the play-off places
Top eight go straight to the last 16, 9th to 24th to the play-offs, the rest are out. The whole table
The match
- Where
- Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como, Italy
Who is likely to start
The team sheets arrive about an hour before kick-off; until then, each side's last starting eleven in our data (league or Europe), not a forecast.
Como
last starting eleven, against Feyenoord Rotterdam, Wed 14 Oct- 97Robert SánchezG
- 99Trevoh ChalobahCD-L
- 4Jacobo RamónCD-R
- 3Álex ValleLB
- 28Ivan SmolcicRB
- 20Martin BaturinaAM
- 5Máximo PerroneLM
- 6Luis MillaRM
- 10Nico PazF
- 16KaikiAM-L
- 11Assane DiaoAM-R
Manchester United
last starting eleven, against Atletico Madrid, Tue 13 Oct- 1Senne LammensG
- 6Lisandro MartínezCD-L
- 15Leny YoroCD-R
- 26Ayden HeavenLB
- 2Diogo DalotRB
- 18Youri TielemansAM
- 20Carlos BalebaLM
- 17Andrey SantosRM
- 19Bryan MbeumoF
- 9Marcus RashfordAM-L
- 8Bruno FernandesAM-R
Who makes the chances
Each club's league season, sortable. Vesta does not work out player chances for cup matches: these are season numbers, not a forecast. Como
league season, ordered by xG + xA| Player | Min | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | Key passes | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AM | 517 | 1 | 1 | 1.95 | 1.18 | 31 | 12 | 0.54 |
| Tasos Douvikas ST | 413 | 2 | 0 | 2.16 | 0.30 | 16 | 5 | 0.54 |
| Assane Diao RW | 431 | 2 | 1 | 0.70 | 1.47 | 10 | 16 | 0.45 |
| Martin Baturina LW | 295 | 2 | 1 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 12 | 4 | 0.53 |
| Jacobo Ramón CB | 540 | 1 | 0 | 1.16 | 0.29 | 6 | 4 | 0.24 |
| Yan Couto RWB | 512 | 0 | 1 | 0.24 | 1.02 | 6 | 9 | 0.22 |
| Máximo Perrone DM | 351 | 0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 6 | 9 | 0.24 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DM | 405 | 0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 10 | 10 | 0.18 |
| Jesús Rodriguez LW | 169 | 0 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.25 | 11 | 2 | 0.40 |
| Kaiki LB | 197 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.20 | 6 | 4 | 0.32 |
Manchester United
league season, ordered by xG + xA| Player | Min | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | Key passes | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes AM | 540 | 3 | 1 | 2.23 | 0.75 | 20 | 15 | 0.50 |
| Bryan Mbeumo RW | 540 | 3 | 0 | 1.53 | 1.31 | 21 | 11 | 0.47 |
| Matheus Cunha AM | 507 | 1 | 2 | 1.06 | 1.18 | 14 | 9 | 0.40 |
| Marcus Rashford LW | 360 | 0 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.44 | 13 | 13 | 0.33 |
| Patrick Dorgu LWB | 169 | 0 | 1 | 1.06 | 0.10 | 6 | 3 | 0.62 |
| Youri Tielemans DM | 467 | 0 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.31 | 7 | 7 | 0.21 |
| Harry Maguire CB | 540 | 0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.69 | 9 | 3 | 0.17 |
| Luke Shaw LB | 429 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.83 | 2 | 5 | 0.18 |
| Diogo Dalot RB | 382 | 0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.59 | 8 | 11 | 0.20 |
| Benjamin Sesko ST | 67 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.06 | 4 | 1 | – |
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Como
DWWWWLDL
Manchester United
LWDWLDDL
Head to head
Every meeting in the European cups since 2014-15 and in a league since 2001-02, newest first.No meeting of Como and Manchester United in our data (European cups since 2014-15): this is the first.
The two sides, beneath the results
League numbers of the season (11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations).ComoCOMManchester UnitedMUN- League
- Serie A
- Premier League
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 8th · 11 pts from 6
- 14th · 6 pts from 6
- Won, drawn, losthome 1-1-0 / 1-1-1 · away 2-1-1 / 0-2-1
- 3-2-1
- 1-3-2
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 1.68 5th of 20
- 1.60 9th of 20
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 1.50 12th of 20
- 1.32 7th of 20
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- -1.1 scoring · +3.0 keeping
- -0.6 scoring · -1.1 keeping
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 20.0 · 0.08
- 19.4 · 0.10
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 4-2-3-1 5 of 6
- 4-2-3-1 6 of 6
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1619 12th +1
- 1578 24th -13
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 66 57–76
1% · 56% · <1% - 54 45–63
<1% · 13% · 2%
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Como
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below1040'
10515'
9230'
101345'
12260'
15575'
- Open play77%
- From a corner11%
- Penalties8%
- Other set pieces5%
How their 66 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Manchester United
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below820'
6415'
11530'
151345'
14660'
181775'
- Open play71%
- From a corner16%
- Other set pieces6%
- Penalties6%
- Direct free kicks1%
How their 69 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Every forecast for this match
All of Vesta's numbers, published Sun 18 Oct before kick-off. The cups' model is checked on results only: everything past the result is a model estimate.Exact score
Como down the side, Manchester United across · darker, likelier| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Result combinations
- Como win or draw69%
- Either team wins (no draw)75%
- Manchester United win or draw56%
Goals in the match
- 1 or more goals94%
- 2 or more goals76%
- 3 or more goals52%
- 4 or more goals30%
- 5 or more goals14%
Exactly
- 0 goals6%
- 1 goal18%
- 2 goals24%
- 3 goals22%
- 4 goals15%
- 5 goals8%
- 6 or more goals6%
Goals by team
- Como: 1 or more78%
- Como: 2 or more45%
- Como: 3 or more19%
- Manchester United: 1 or more71%
- Manchester United: 2 or more35%
- Manchester United: 3 or more13%
Also
- Both teams score55%
- At least one team does not score45%
Winning margin
- Como by 3 or more9%
- Como by 213%
- Como by 122%
- Draw25%
- Manchester United by 118%
- Manchester United by 29%
- Manchester United by 3 or more4%
Halves
- A goal in the first half71%
- A goal in the second half78%
- Como ahead at half-time33%
- Level at half-time41%
- Manchester United ahead at half-time25%
- Como win the second half36%
- Second half level36%
- Manchester United win the second half27%
- More goals in the first half31%
- More goals in the second half44%
- Same goals in both halves25%
Half-time and full-time
- Como ahead at half-time, Como win26%
- Level at half-time, Como win15%
- Manchester United ahead at half-time, Como win3%
- Como ahead at half-time, draw5%
- Level at half-time, draw15%
- Manchester United ahead at half-time, draw5%
- Como ahead at half-time, Manchester United win2%
- Level at half-time, Manchester United win11%
- Manchester United ahead at half-time, Manchester United win18%
Clean sheets
- Como keep a clean sheet29%
- Manchester United keep a clean sheet22%
- Como win without conceding23%
- Manchester United win without conceding16%
- No goals at all6%
The first goal
- Como score first52%
- Manchester United score first42%
- No goals6%
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- Vesta's cups model, published Sun 18 Oct 05:52 CEST, forecast 1733
- Results and line-ups
- Official match data, through Thu 15 Oct
- League numbers
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues, built Sun 18 Oct
- In the Lab
- Every match and shot of Como and Manchester United
Como in the Lab Manchester United in the LabThe cups' track record