Lab

Which matches change the races most?

Parma v Udinese (Wed 28 Oct) moves a race more than any other coming match: Parma's bottom three chance is 49 in 100 if Parma win, 61 after a draw and 67 if Udinese win.

League data to · Vesta · each result against 10,000 runs of the season

FreePro adds every coming match, not only the top five

29 coming matches, the biggest swing firstBiggest swings 29 matches

each side's chance if the home side wins · draws · the away side wins
CSV
ParmavUdineseWed 28 Oct, 18:30 CETWed 18:30
Vesta 33 · 31 · 37
Side and racePAR winDrawUDI winNow
Parmabottom three49616759
Udinesebottom three34251825
UdinesevLecceSun 18 Oct, 12:30 CESTSun 12:30
Vesta 54 · 27 · 19
Side and raceUDI winDrawLEC winNow
Leccebottom three77695972
Udinesebottom three20293625
JuventusvLazioSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 52 · 28 · 21
Side and raceJUV winDrawLAZ winNow
Juventustop four52403445
Laziotop four15182718
Juventustitle2112
NapolivRomaSat 24 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 33 · 29 · 38
Side and raceNAP winDrawROM winNow
Napolitop four58474148
Romatitle16212521
Romatop four88929592
Napolititle3212
LaziovParmaSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 57 · 27 · 16
Side and raceLAZ winDrawPAR winNow
Parmabottom three63594659
Laziotop four21161218
GenoavVeneziaSun 25 Oct, 15:00 CETSun 15:00
Vesta 46 · 28 · 26
Side and raceGEN winDrawVEN winNow
Veneziabottom three76705970
Genoabottom three17243123
TorinovComoTue 27 Oct, 20:45 CETTue 20:45
Vesta 22 · 27 · 51
Side and raceTOR winDrawCOM winNow
Comotop four42485952
Torinobottom three59119
Comotitle1243
ParmavTorinoMon 19 Oct, 20:45 CESTMon 20:45
Vesta 29 · 31 · 39
Side and racePAR winDrawTOR winNow
Parmabottom three49616659
Torinobottom three131059
FrosinonevLecceThu 29 Oct, 18:30 CETThu 18:30
Vesta 61 · 23 · 17
Side and raceFRO winDrawLEC winNow
Leccebottom three75715972
Frosinonetop four3223
Frosinonebottom three<1121
LeccevJuventusSun 25 Oct, 18:00 CETSun 18:00
Vesta 13 · 23 · 64
Side and raceLEC winDrawJUV winNow
Leccebottom three60697572
Juventustop four35394945
GenoavJuventusWed 28 Oct, 20:45 CETWed 20:45
Vesta 20 · 29 · 50
Side and raceGEN winDrawJUV winNow
Juventustop four36425045
Genoabottom three15222723
Juventustitle1122
VeneziavInterWed 28 Oct, 18:30 CETWed 18:30
Vesta 9 · 17 · 74
Side and raceVEN winDrawINT winNow
Veneziabottom three58667370
Intertitle62687472
Intertop four98999999
AC MilanvAtalantaSun 18 Oct, 18:00 CESTSun 18:00
Vesta 48 · 29 · 24
Side and raceMIL winDrawATA winNow
AC Milantop four40312634
Atalantatop four3696
VeneziavNapoliSat 17 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 17 · 24 · 59
Side and raceVEN winDrawNAP winNow
Veneziabottom three59697470
Napolitop four39435348
MonzavNapoliWed 28 Oct, 20:45 CETWed 20:45
Vesta 21 · 26 · 53
Side and raceMZA winDrawNAP winNow
Napolitop four40445448
Monzabottom three14192320
Napolititle1132
UdinesevAC MilanSun 25 Oct, 20:45 CETSun 20:45
Vesta 23 · 28 · 49
Side and raceUDI winDrawMIL winNow
AC Milantop four26314034
Udinesebottom three18243025
FiorentinavComoSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 24 · 27 · 49
Side and raceFIO winDrawCOM winNow
Comotop four45495852
Fiorentinabottom three691210
Comotitle2243
ComovSassuoloSat 24 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 60 · 24 · 17
Side and raceCOM winDrawSAS winNow
Comotop four57484352
Sassuolobottom three6425
Comotitle3223
AC MilanvBolognaWed 28 Oct, 18:30 CETWed 18:30
Vesta 48 · 29 · 23
Side and raceMIL winDrawBOL winNow
AC Milantop four39322734
Bolognabottom three4323
TorinovMonzaFri 23 Oct, 20:45 CESTFri 20:45
Vesta 41 · 29 · 31
Side and raceTOR winDrawMZA winNow
Monzabottom three26191420
Torinobottom three59149
Showing 20 of 29Show 20 more

For each coming league match Vesta's 10,000 runs of the season are split by the result of that match: the share of runs where a side finishes first, in the top four or in the bottom three, among the runs with a home win, a draw or an away win. "Now" weighs the three by how often each result comes up. Green = the side's best result, red = its worst. Chances in 100.

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