All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 5 league matches of Elversberg since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 20 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 23, happened 20 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches5each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened20 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws20 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match3.20Vesta expected 3.49
Likeliest score happened0 in 100Vesta said 11
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Elversberg 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen
Sat 29 Aug 2026 · Bundesliga11 in 100
Schalke 04 0-0 ElversbergSun 20 Sep 2026 · Bundesliga25 in 100
Union Berlin 1-0 ElversbergSat 10 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga34 in 100
Borussia M.Gladbach 3-4 ElversbergSat 5 Sep 2026 · Bundesliga35 in 100- Elversberg 1-2 Bayern Munich
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · Bundesliga71 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not winWhich clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Elversberg | 5 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
  Union Berlin | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
  Bayern Munich | 1 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
  Schalke 04 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | −0.5 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | −1.4 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 2.3 | −2.3 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 2.3 | −2.3 |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | −1.4 |
| Schalke 04 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | −0.5 |
| Bayern Munich | 1 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| Union Berlin | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
| Elversberg | 5 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Elversberg's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 52 | 20 | 23 | 20 | 3.49 | 3.20 | 0.284 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.