All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 311 league matches of Bayern Munich since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 73 times in 100; it said 74. Draws: said 15, happened 16 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches311each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened73 in 100Vesta said 74
Draws16 in 100Vesta said 15
Goals a match3.95Vesta expected 3.74
Likeliest score happened8 in 100Vesta said 10
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 223 | 6.1 | 9.0 | +2.9 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 291 | 14.6 | 14.4 | −0.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 99 | 22.8 | 21.2 | −1.6 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 29 | 56.0 | 55.2 | −0.8 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 64 | 65.1 | 64.1 | −1.0 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 86 | 74.9 | 82.6 | +7.6 |
| 80–90 in 100 | 98 | 84.6 | 78.6 | −6.1 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 2-3 Bochum
Sat 8 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga1 in 100- Bayern Munich 1-2 Augsburg
Sat 24 Jan 2026 · Bundesliga2 in 100 - Bayern Munich 0-1 Werder Bremen
Sun 21 Jan 2024 · Bundesliga3 in 100 - Augsburg 2-1 Bayern MunichFri 19 Nov 2021 · Bundesliga4 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-4 VfB Stuttgart
Sat 12 May 2018 · Bundesliga5 in 100 - Bayern Munich 3-3 FC Heidenheim
Sat 2 May 2026 · Bundesliga6 in 100 - Bayern Munich 1-2 Borussia M.Gladbach
Fri 7 Jan 2022 · Bundesliga6 in 100 - Bochum 4-2 Bayern MunichSat 12 Feb 2022 · Bundesliga6 in 100
- Bayern Munich 0-3 Borussia M.GladbachSat 6 Oct 2018 · Bundesliga7 in 100
- Bayern Munich 2-2 Hertha Berlin
Fri 16 Aug 2019 · Bundesliga7 in 100 - Augsburg 1-0 Bayern MunichSat 17 Sep 2022 · Bundesliga7 in 100
- Bayern Munich 3-3 Fortuna Duesseldorf
Sat 24 Nov 2018 · Bundesliga7 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 2-3 BochumSat 8 Mar 2025 · home win said94 in 100
- Bayern Munich 3-3 FC HeidenheimSat 2 May 2026 · home win said92 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-2 AugsburgSat 24 Jan 2026 · home win said91 in 100
- Bayern Munich 2-2 Hertha BerlinFri 16 Aug 2019 · home win said91 in 100
- Bayern Munich 3-3 Fortuna DuesseldorfSat 24 Nov 2018 · home win said90 in 100
- Bayern Munich 0-1 Werder BremenSun 21 Jan 2024 · home win said90 in 100
- Bayern Munich 2-2 Mainz 05
Sun 14 Dec 2025 · home win said89 in 100 - Augsburg 2-1 Bayern MunichFri 19 Nov 2021 · away win said87 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 AugsburgTue 25 Sep 2018 · home win said86 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 Freiburg
Sat 3 Nov 2018 · home win said86 in 100 
Nuernberg 1-1 Bayern MunichSun 28 Apr 2019 · away win said86 in 100- Bayern Munich 2-2 VfB StuttgartSun 8 May 2022 · home win said85 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 18 | 20 | 8.8 | +11.2 |
  Bochum | 8 | 9 | 2.2 | +6.8 |
  Augsburg | 19 | 12 | 5.7 | +6.3 |
  Mainz 05 | 18 | 13 | 7.7 | +5.3 |
  Hoffenheim | 18 | 14 | 8.8 | +5.2 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 18 | 14 | 9.5 | +4.5 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 18 | 17 | 13.8 | +3.2 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1.3 | +2.7 |
  Hertha Berlin | 12 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Bayern Munich | 311 | 724 | 735.7 | −11.7 |
  Wolfsburg | 18 | 2 | 9.4 | −7.4 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 9 | 15.0 | −6.0 |
  FC Cologne | 14 | 1 | 5.3 | −4.3 |
  Freiburg | 18 | 4 | 7.9 | −3.9 |
  Schalke 04 | 11 | 1 | 4.5 | −3.5 |
  Werder Bremen | 16 | 4 | 6.5 | −2.5 |
  Union Berlin | 15 | 5 | 6.5 | −1.5 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 18 | 13 | 14.4 | −1.4 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 0 | 1.3 | −1.3 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 17 | 8 | 9.2 | −1.2 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 0 | 1.2 | −1.2 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Bayern Munich's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 79 | 60 | 13 | 40 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 0.152 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 79 | 82 | 13 | 15 | 3.92 | 4.65 | 0.100 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 74 | 74 | 16 | 21 | 3.74 | 3.85 | 0.112 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 72 | 71 | 16 | 9 | 3.88 | 4.09 | 0.173 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 70 | 62 | 17 | 24 | 3.64 | 3.82 | 0.177 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 76 | 71 | 14 | 15 | 3.89 | 3.94 | 0.181 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 70 | 71 | 17 | 18 | 3.56 | 4.21 | 0.158 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 76 | 76 | 14 | 12 | 3.90 | 3.88 | 0.128 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 74 | 71 | 15 | 18 | 3.61 | 3.53 | 0.157 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 73 | 79 | 16 | 9 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 0.135 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.