All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 243 league matches of Union Berlin since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 47 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 26, happened 26 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches243each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened47 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws26 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.78Vesta expected 2.79
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 64 | 16.2 | 18.8 | +2.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 324 | 26.2 | 28.4 | +2.1 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 137 | 34.9 | 33.6 | −1.3 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 102 | 45.0 | 46.1 | +1.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 46 | 54.4 | 43.5 | −10.9 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 25 | 63.7 | 52.0 | −11.7 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Union Berlin 2-2 Bayern Munich
Sat 8 Nov 2025 · Bundesliga15 in 100
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-2 Union BerlinSat 11 Feb 2023 · Bundesliga17 in 100
Bochum 2-1 Union BerlinSun 23 Oct 2022 · Bundesliga17 in 100
Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Union BerlinSun 9 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga17 in 100- Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4 Union BerlinSun 21 Sep 2025 · Bundesliga18 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-2 Union BerlinSat 23 Apr 2022 · Bundesliga18 in 100
- Union Berlin 1-2 FC Heidenheim
Sat 29 Nov 2025 · Bundesliga18 in 100 - Union Berlin 3-1 Borussia Dortmund
Sat 31 Aug 2019 · Bundesliga18 in 100 
Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Union BerlinSat 12 Apr 2025 · Bundesliga19 in 100
Greuther Fuerth 1-0 Union BerlinSun 12 Dec 2021 · Bundesliga19 in 100- Bayern Munich 1-1 Union BerlinSat 10 Apr 2021 · Bundesliga20 in 100
- Union Berlin 2-1 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 22 May 2021 · Bundesliga20 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Union Berlin 2-2 Bayern MunichSat 8 Nov 2025 · away win said77 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Union BerlinSat 12 Apr 2025 · home win said71 in 100
- Union Berlin 1-1 Greuther FuerthFri 29 Apr 2022 · home win said69 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 Union BerlinSat 10 Apr 2021 · home win said67 in 100
- Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern MunichSat 15 Mar 2025 · away win said67 in 100
- Union Berlin 0-0 Schalke 04
Sun 19 Feb 2023 · home win said66 in 100 - RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-0 Union BerlinSat 14 Sep 2024 · home win said66 in 100
- Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern MunichSat 12 Dec 2020 · away win said65 in 100
- Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern MunichSat 3 Sep 2022 · away win said63 in 100
Borussia M.Gladbach 1-1 Union BerlinSat 26 Sep 2020 · home win said62 in 100- Union Berlin 2-2 Augsburg
Wed 9 Nov 2022 · home win said62 in 100 - Union Berlin 1-1 BochumSun 16 Apr 2023 · home win said61 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Union Berlin | 243 | 327 | 310.3 | +16.7 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 16 | 6.6 | +9.4 |
  Augsburg | 14 | 23 | 15.8 | +7.2 |
  Bochum | 8 | 12 | 7.8 | +4.2 |
  Wolfsburg | 14 | 24 | 19.9 | +4.1 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 14 | 30 | 26.0 | +4.0 |
  Schalke 04 | 7 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 |
  Greuther Fuerth | 2 | 4 | 1.3 | +2.7 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 15 | 29 | 27.3 | +1.7 |
  Hamburger SV | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
  Werder Bremen | 12 | 16 | 14.8 | +1.2 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Mainz 05 | 14 | 8 | 19.1 | −11.1 |
  Freiburg | 14 | 11 | 20.0 | −9.0 |
  FC Cologne | 12 | 6 | 14.8 | −8.8 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 14 | 20 | 27.3 | −7.3 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 14 | 15 | 20.7 | −5.7 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 12 | 14 | 18.3 | −4.3 |
  Darmstadt | 2 | 0 | 2.4 | −2.4 |
  Hertha Berlin | 8 | 7 | 8.8 | −1.8 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 15 | 20 | 21.8 | −1.8 |
  Elversberg | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | −1.4 |
  Paderborn | 2 | 1 | 2.3 | −1.3 |
  Bayern Munich | 15 | 35 | 36.2 | −1.2 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Union Berlin's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 56 | 40 | 22 | 20 | 3.30 | 4.40 | 0.181 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 38 | 26 | 26 | 2.83 | 3.00 | 0.245 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 32 | 27 | 32 | 2.72 | 2.53 | 0.240 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 68 | 25 | 18 | 2.81 | 2.68 | 0.188 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 48 | 56 | 27 | 24 | 2.64 | 2.62 | 0.213 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 47 | 47 | 26 | 26 | 2.76 | 2.76 | 0.222 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 47 | 35 | 27 | 41 | 2.68 | 2.74 | 0.219 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 56 | 24 | 15 | 3.00 | 2.91 | 0.204 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.