All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 175 league matches of Schalke 04 since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 24, happened 28 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches175each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened53 in 100Vesta said 54
Draws28 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.89Vesta expected 2.88
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 81 | 15.9 | 9.9 | −6.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 221 | 25.3 | 28.5 | +3.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 49 | 34.4 | 36.7 | +2.3 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 57 | 44.7 | 45.6 | +0.9 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 56 | 54.8 | 48.2 | −6.6 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 28 | 65.0 | 57.1 | −7.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern Munich
Sat 5 Sep 2026 · Bundesliga11 in 100- Schalke 04 4-3 Eintracht Frankfurt
Sat 15 May 2021 · Bundesliga11 in 100 
Borussia Dortmund 2-4 Schalke 04Sat 27 Apr 2019 · Bundesliga13 in 100
Mainz 05 2-3 Schalke 04Fri 5 May 2023 · Bundesliga14 in 100
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-3 Schalke 04Sat 28 Sep 2019 · Bundesliga15 in 100- Schalke 04 4-0 Hoffenheim
Sat 9 Jan 2021 · Bundesliga17 in 100 - Schalke 04 1-2 Werder Bremen
Sat 3 Feb 2018 · Bundesliga18 in 100 - Schalke 04 0-4 Fortuna Duesseldorf
Sat 2 Mar 2019 · Bundesliga19 in 100 
Borussia M.Gladbach 0-0 Schalke 04Sat 4 Feb 2023 · Bundesliga20 in 100- Schalke 04 0-2 Hertha Berlin
Sun 2 Sep 2018 · Bundesliga21 in 100 
Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Schalke 04Sat 11 May 2019 · Bundesliga21 in 100
Hamburger SV 3-2 Schalke 04Sat 7 Apr 2018 · Bundesliga21 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern MunichSat 5 Sep 2026 · away win said83 in 100
- Schalke 04 4-3 Eintracht FrankfurtSat 15 May 2021 · away win said70 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-4 Schalke 04Sat 27 Apr 2019 · home win said67 in 100
Union Berlin 0-0 Schalke 04Sun 19 Feb 2023 · home win said66 in 100- Schalke 04 2-2 FC Cologne
Sat 2 Dec 2017 · home win said66 in 100 - Borussia M.Gladbach 0-0 Schalke 04Sat 4 Feb 2023 · home win said66 in 100
- Mainz 05 2-3 Schalke 04Fri 5 May 2023 · home win said66 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Schalke 04Sat 11 May 2019 · home win said64 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-3 Schalke 04Sat 28 Sep 2019 · home win said63 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 4-4 Schalke 04Sat 25 Nov 2017 · home win said63 in 100
- Schalke 04 1-1 FC CologneSat 5 Oct 2019 · home win said62 in 100
- Schalke 04 0-0 Freiburg
Sat 16 Feb 2019 · home win said61 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Freiburg | 11 | 23 | 16.1 | +6.9 |
  FC Cologne | 8 | 16 | 11.2 | +4.8 |
  Werder Bremen | 10 | 19 | 14.4 | +4.6 |
  Bayern Munich | 11 | 31 | 27.0 | +4.0 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 7 | 4.2 | +2.8 |
  Hoffenheim | 10 | 20 | 17.4 | +2.6 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 10 | 21 | 18.6 | +2.4 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 10 | 22 | 20.3 | +1.7 |
  Hamburger SV | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
  Wolfsburg | 10 | 16 | 15.3 | +0.7 |
  Hertha Berlin | 10 | 14 | 13.9 | +0.1 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Schalke 04 | 175 | 187 | 200.4 | −13.4 |
  Mainz 05 | 10 | 6 | 13.7 | −7.7 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 6 | 11.6 | −5.6 |
  Union Berlin | 7 | 7 | 12.1 | −5.1 |
  Bochum | 2 | 0 | 2.7 | −2.7 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 10 | 18 | 20.1 | −2.1 |
  Augsburg | 11 | 13 | 15.0 | −2.0 |
  Paderborn | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | −1.5 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | −1.0 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 10 | 17 | 17.5 | −0.5 |
  Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | −0.2 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 4 | 4.1 | −0.1 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Schalke 04's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 57 | 40 | 22 | 40 | 3.45 | 2.00 | 0.224 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 58 | 56 | 23 | 29 | 3.06 | 3.12 | 0.169 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 60 | 68 | 22 | 21 | 2.92 | 3.26 | 0.144 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 41 | 25 | 35 | 2.84 | 2.82 | 0.188 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 47 | 25 | 26 | 2.76 | 2.71 | 0.230 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 53 | 25 | 26 | 2.76 | 2.65 | 0.204 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.