1. Matches
  2. Bundesliga

Union Berlin v Elversberg

34%Union Berlin
27%Draw
39%Elversberg

Too close to call.

Tested

Out of 100: Union Berlin 34, draw 27, Elversberg 39. No result stands out.

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:24 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals63%
Both teams score66%
Expected goals1.6 v 1.7
Most likely score1-112% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Union Berlin4-4-24-2-3-1Elversberg

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Union Berlin v Elversberg changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowUnion Berlin winDrawElversberg win
Union Berlin
Bottom 374%65%75%80%
Elversberg
Top 45%2%4%7%
Bottom 35%8%5%3%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals96%
2 or more goals84%
3 or more goals63%
4 or more goals42%
5 or more goals23%

Exactly

0 goals4%
1 goal11%
2 goals21%
3 goals21%
4 goals19%
5 goals11%
6 or more goals12%

Goals by team

Tested
Union Berlin: 1 or more80%
Union Berlin: 2 or more47%
Union Berlin: 3 or more21%
Elversberg: 1 or more82%
Elversberg: 2 or more50%
Elversberg: 3 or more24%
Both teams score66%
At least one team does not score34%

Winning margin

Tested
Union Berlin by 3 or more7%
Union Berlin by 210%
Union Berlin by 117%
Draw27%
Elversberg by 119%
Elversberg by 212%
Elversberg by 3 or more8%

Result combinations

Tested
Union Berlin win or draw61%
Either team wins (no draw)73%
Elversberg win or draw66%

Clean sheets

Tested
Union Berlin keep a clean sheet18%
Elversberg keep a clean sheet20%
Union Berlin win without conceding14%
Elversberg win without conceding16%
No goals at all4%

The first goal

Model estimate
Union Berlin score first46%
Elversberg score first50%
No goals4%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1537%
Minutes 16-3023%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+4%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Union Berlin goals down, Elversberg goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
04.45.95.12.91.20.4
15.511.88.24.62.00.7
24.57.67.93.71.60.5
32.44.03.42.40.80.3
40.91.61.40.80.40.1
50.30.50.40.20.1·

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half76%
A goal in the second half83%
Union Berlin ahead at half-time29%
Level at half-time38%
Elversberg ahead at half-time33%
Union Berlin win the second half32%
Second half level33%
Elversberg win the second half35%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half46%
Same goals in both halves24%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Union Berlin ahead at half-time, Union Berlin win20%
Level at half-time, Union Berlin win12%
Elversberg ahead at half-time, Union Berlin win3%
Union Berlin ahead at half-time, draw6%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Elversberg ahead at half-time, draw7%
Union Berlin ahead at half-time, Elversberg win3%
Level at half-time, Elversberg win12%
Elversberg ahead at half-time, Elversberg win24%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Union BerlinElversberg

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Union Berlin
Union Berlin: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Marin Ljubicic bench4422%3%5%26%1.2
Emmanuel Latte Lath5218%2%6%22%1.2
Woo-Yeong Jeong bench4412%<1%5%16%1.0
Tom Rothe9012%<1%9%20%1.3
Livan Burcu5010%<1%6%15%1.0
Tim Skarke bench2310%<1%5%14%0.7
Andras Schafer597%<1%5%12%1.0
Rani Khedira727%<1%6%13%0.6
Andrej Ilic bench187%<1%5%12%0.5
Leopold Querfeld547%<1%5%11%0.5
Josip Juranovic556%<1%14%19%0.6
Oliver Burke bench185%<1%3%8%0.3
Aljoscha Kemlein634%<1%6%10%0.6
Michel Aebischer623%<1%7%10%0.5
Felix Uduokhai543%<1%3%6%0.4
Ilyas Ansah bench143%<1%1%4%0.2
Danilho Doekhi bench183%<1%<1%3%0.2
Zeno Van den Bosch bench392%<1%3%4%0.2
Janik Haberer bench191%<1%2%3%0.2
Diogo Leite bench18<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Christopher Trimmel bench31<1%<1%7%7%0.1
Matheo Raab bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Carl Klaus bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Frederik Rönnow54<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Elversberg
Elversberg: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
David Mokwa8034%7%10%40%2.0
Maurice Krattenmacher bench3217%2%4%20%0.9
Lukas Petkov9017%2%19%32%1.8
Cole Campbell6814%1%11%23%1.5
Felix Keidel8713%<1%12%24%1.3
Lukasz Poreba9010%<1%8%17%1.1
Noah Darvich bench388%<1%6%13%0.7
Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka397%<1%8%14%0.7
Lasse Günther846%<1%5%11%0.5
Jan Gyamerah775%<1%4%9%0.5
Lukas Pinckert905%<1%11%15%0.5
Maximilian Rohr884%<1%4%8%0.8
Noel Futkeu bench102%<1%3%5%0.2
Luca Sirch bench132%<1%2%4%0.2
Nicholas Mickelson bench61%<1%<1%2%0.1
Nicolas Kristof90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0