Union Berlin v Elversberg
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Union Berlin 34, draw 27, Elversberg 39. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:24 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
- Marin Ljubicic22%to score
- Emmanuel Latte Lath18%to score
- Woo-Yeong Jeong12%to score
- Tom Rothe12%to score
- David Mokwa34%to score
- Maurice Krattenmacher17%to score
- Lukas Petkov17%to score
- Cole Campbell14%to score
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Union Berlin win | Draw | Elversberg win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 74% | 65% | 75% | 80% |
| Elversberg | ||||
| Top 4 | 5% | 2% | 4% | 7% |
| Bottom 3 | 5% | 8% | 5% | 3% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Union Berlin goals down, Elversberg goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marin Ljubicic bench | 22% | 5% | 1.2 |
| Emmanuel Latte Lath | 18% | 6% | 1.2 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong bench | 12% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Tom Rothe | 12% | 9% | 1.3 |
| Livan Burcu | 10% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Tim Skarke bench | 10% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Andras Schafer | 7% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Rani Khedira | 7% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Andrej Ilic bench | 7% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Leopold Querfeld | 7% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Josip Juranovic | 6% | 14% | 0.6 |
| Oliver Burke bench | 5% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein | 4% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Michel Aebischer | 3% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Felix Uduokhai | 3% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Ilyas Ansah bench | 3% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Danilho Doekhi bench | 3% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Zeno Van den Bosch bench | 2% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Janik Haberer bench | 1% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Diogo Leite bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Christopher Trimmel bench | <1% | 7% | 0.1 |
| Matheo Raab bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Carl Klaus bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Frederik Rönnow | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Mokwa | 34% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Maurice Krattenmacher bench | 17% | 4% | 0.9 |
| Lukas Petkov | 17% | 19% | 1.8 |
| Cole Campbell | 14% | 11% | 1.5 |
| Felix Keidel | 13% | 12% | 1.3 |
| Lukasz Poreba | 10% | 8% | 1.1 |
| Noah Darvich bench | 8% | 6% | 0.7 |
| Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka | 7% | 8% | 0.7 |
| Lasse Günther | 6% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Jan Gyamerah | 5% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Lukas Pinckert | 5% | 11% | 0.5 |
| Maximilian Rohr | 4% | 4% | 0.8 |
| Noel Futkeu bench | 2% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Luca Sirch bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Nicholas Mickelson bench | 1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Nicolas Kristof | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



