All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 311 league matches of Bayer Leverkusen since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 54 times in 100; it said 55. Draws: said 23, happened 23 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches311each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened54 in 100Vesta said 55
Draws23 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match3.27Vesta expected 3.11
Likeliest score happened10 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 24 | 7.0 | 8.3 | +1.4 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 170 | 15.7 | 14.7 | −1.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 357 | 24.5 | 24.6 | +0.1 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 102 | 34.8 | 39.2 | +4.5 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 87 | 44.8 | 35.6 | −9.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 82 | 54.5 | 59.8 | +5.3 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 74 | 64.5 | 63.5 | −1.0 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 27 | 73.8 | 77.8 | +4.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Werder Bremen
Sat 8 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga6 in 100- Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Holstein Kiel
Sat 5 Oct 2024 · Bundesliga8 in 100 
Elversberg 3-2 Bayer LeverkusenSat 29 Aug 2026 · Bundesliga11 in 100- Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Augsburg
Sat 13 Aug 2022 · Bundesliga11 in 100 - Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 AugsburgSat 18 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga11 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Hertha Berlin
Sat 10 Feb 2018 · Bundesliga13 in 100 - Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Arminia Bielefeld
Sun 14 Mar 2021 · Bundesliga13 in 100 - Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Borussia M.Gladbach
Sat 27 Jan 2024 · Bundesliga13 in 100 - Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Hoffenheim
Sat 23 Aug 2025 · Bundesliga13 in 100 
Bochum 1-1 Bayer LeverkusenSat 9 Nov 2024 · Bundesliga13 in 100- Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 Hertha BerlinWed 18 Dec 2019 · Bundesliga14 in 100
Bayern Munich 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenSat 30 Nov 2019 · Bundesliga14 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Holstein KielSat 5 Oct 2024 · home win said89 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Borussia M.GladbachSat 27 Jan 2024 · home win said81 in 100
- Bochum 1-1 Bayer LeverkusenSat 9 Nov 2024 · away win said80 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Werder BremenSat 8 Mar 2025 · home win said80 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 Bayer LeverkusenSat 5 Mar 2022 · home win said73 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SV
Sat 16 May 2026 · home win said72 in 100 - Elversberg 3-2 Bayer LeverkusenSat 29 Aug 2026 · away win said71 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Union Berlin
Sat 12 Apr 2025 · home win said71 in 100 - Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 AugsburgSat 18 Apr 2026 · home win said70 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 AugsburgSat 13 Aug 2022 · home win said70 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenSat 30 Nov 2019 · home win said68 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Hertha BerlinSat 10 Feb 2018 · home win said68 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Bayer Leverkusen | 311 | 570 | 542.6 | +27.4 |
  Hertha Berlin | 12 | 18 | 10.3 | +7.7 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 33 | 26.5 | +6.5 |
  Hoffenheim | 18 | 22 | 18.7 | +3.3 |
  Elversberg | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | +2.5 |
  FC Cologne | 14 | 13 | 11.7 | +1.3 |
  Augsburg | 19 | 16 | 14.7 | +1.3 |
  Holstein Kiel | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
  Bochum | 8 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 |
  Wolfsburg | 18 | 17 | 17.2 | −0.2 |
  Werder Bremen | 16 | 13 | 13.3 | −0.3 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 18 | 13 | 19.1 | −6.1 |
  Mainz 05 | 19 | 12 | 17.8 | −5.8 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 19 | 23 | 28.0 | −5.0 |
  Bayern Munich | 18 | 32 | 36.6 | −4.6 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 18 | 15 | 19.2 | −4.2 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 0 | 3.3 | −3.3 |
  Schalke 04 | 10 | 6 | 9.1 | −3.1 |
  Union Berlin | 15 | 11 | 14.0 | −3.0 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 16 | 14 | 16.5 | −2.5 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 1 | 3.1 | −2.1 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.9 |
  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 2.8 | −1.8 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Bayer Leverkusen's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 55 | 60 | 23 | 20 | 3.42 | 4.40 | 0.250 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 50 | 23 | 24 | 3.12 | 3.38 | 0.225 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 64 | 56 | 20 | 35 | 3.28 | 3.38 | 0.165 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 62 | 76 | 20 | 18 | 3.27 | 3.32 | 0.118 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 41 | 24 | 24 | 3.12 | 3.12 | 0.244 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 59 | 24 | 21 | 3.10 | 3.74 | 0.195 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 47 | 25 | 29 | 2.84 | 2.71 | 0.204 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 53 | 23 | 18 | 3.17 | 3.09 | 0.218 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 54 | 59 | 23 | 12 | 3.11 | 3.56 | 0.208 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 44 | 24 | 29 | 2.97 | 3.00 | 0.203 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.