All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 311 league matches of Borussia M.Gladbach since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 46 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 24, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches311each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened46 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match3.21Vesta expected 3.13
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 104 | 16.2 | 13.5 | −2.7 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 405 | 25.0 | 27.9 | +2.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 148 | 35.2 | 34.5 | −0.8 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 114 | 45.0 | 38.6 | −6.4 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 83 | 54.8 | 54.2 | −0.6 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 41 | 64.0 | 61.0 | −3.1 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 1-2 Borussia M.Gladbach
Fri 7 Jan 2022 · Bundesliga6 in 100- Bayern Munich 0-3 Borussia M.GladbachSat 6 Oct 2018 · Bundesliga7 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 Borussia M.GladbachSat 27 Aug 2022 · Bundesliga12 in 100
VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Borussia M.GladbachSat 1 Feb 2025 · Bundesliga13 in 100
Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Borussia M.GladbachSat 27 Jan 2024 · Bundesliga13 in 100- Borussia M.Gladbach 3-2 Bayern MunichSat 18 Feb 2023 · Bundesliga14 in 100
- Borussia M.Gladbach 0-3 Hertha Berlin
Sat 9 Feb 2019 · Bundesliga17 in 100 - Borussia M.Gladbach 2-1 Bayern MunichSat 25 Nov 2017 · Bundesliga18 in 100
- Borussia M.Gladbach 1-2 FC Cologne
Sat 6 Feb 2021 · Bundesliga18 in 100 - Borussia M.Gladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund
Sun 3 May 2026 · Bundesliga19 in 100 - Borussia M.Gladbach 3-2 Bayern MunichFri 8 Jan 2021 · Bundesliga19 in 100
- Borussia M.Gladbach 0-0 Darmstadt
Sat 10 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga19 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 1-2 Borussia M.GladbachFri 7 Jan 2022 · home win said84 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 Borussia M.GladbachSat 27 Aug 2022 · home win said81 in 100
- Bayern Munich 0-3 Borussia M.GladbachSat 6 Oct 2018 · home win said81 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Borussia M.GladbachSat 27 Jan 2024 · home win said81 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Borussia M.GladbachSat 1 Feb 2025 · home win said68 in 100
- Borussia M.Gladbach 0-0 DarmstadtSat 10 Feb 2024 · home win said68 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Borussia M.GladbachSun 21 May 2023 · home win said67 in 100
- Borussia M.Gladbach 3-2 Bayern MunichSat 18 Feb 2023 · away win said67 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Borussia M.GladbachSun 21 Sep 2025 · home win said66 in 100
- Borussia M.Gladbach 1-1 Augsburg
Sat 21 Nov 2020 · home win said66 in 100 - Borussia M.Gladbach 0-0 Schalke 04
Sat 4 Feb 2023 · home win said66 in 100 
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2-2 Borussia M.GladbachSat 16 Sep 2017 · home win said64 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Freiburg | 19 | 34 | 23.8 | +10.2 |
  Union Berlin | 14 | 24 | 17.7 | +6.3 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 40 | 33.7 | +6.3 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 18 | 37 | 30.7 | +6.3 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 16 | 29 | 22.8 | +6.2 |
  Augsburg | 18 | 25 | 19.1 | +5.9 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 18 | 30 | 25.8 | +4.2 |
  Hertha Berlin | 12 | 15 | 11.9 | +3.1 |
  FC Cologne | 15 | 21 | 18.4 | +2.6 |
  Elversberg | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 19 | 37 | 35.4 | +1.6 |
  Holstein Kiel | 2 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Bayern Munich | 18 | 32 | 42.5 | −10.5 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 311 | 421 | 430.1 | −9.1 |
  Hoffenheim | 18 | 18 | 25.1 | −7.1 |
  Bochum | 8 | 3 | 8.5 | −5.5 |
  Werder Bremen | 16 | 13 | 18.5 | −5.5 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 2 | 6.6 | −4.6 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 0 | 4.2 | −4.2 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 1 | 5.0 | −4.0 |
  Schalke 04 | 10 | 8 | 10.7 | −2.7 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 1 | 3.2 | −2.2 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 0 | 1.7 | −1.7 |
  Greuther Fuerth | 2 | 0 | 1.6 | −1.6 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Borussia M.Gladbach's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 50 | 80 | 25 | 0 | 3.19 | 5.00 | 0.167 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 50 | 25 | 32 | 3.03 | 2.79 | 0.185 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 53 | 24 | 18 | 3.18 | 3.29 | 0.206 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 54 | 50 | 23 | 38 | 3.29 | 3.62 | 0.183 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 35 | 24 | 29 | 3.25 | 3.15 | 0.230 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 32 | 24 | 26 | 3.15 | 3.38 | 0.254 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 53 | 38 | 24 | 29 | 3.03 | 3.53 | 0.225 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 53 | 56 | 23 | 15 | 3.22 | 3.12 | 0.201 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 53 | 23 | 21 | 3.10 | 2.85 | 0.219 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 44 | 25 | 24 | 2.92 | 2.91 | 0.211 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.