All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 6 league matches of Coventry since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 50 times in 100; it said 55. Draws: said 23, happened 0 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches6each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened50 in 100Vesta said 55
Draws0 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match2.67Vesta expected 2.93
Likeliest score happened17 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · Premier League19 in 100- Coventry 4-1 Newcastle United
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · Premier League33 in 100 - Coventry 0-1 Hull
Sat 29 Aug 2026 · Premier League35 in 100 - Coventry 0-5 Brighton
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · Premier League39 in 100 
Manchester City 1-0 CoventrySat 5 Sep 2026 · Premier League74 in 100
Arsenal 3-0 CoventryFri 21 Aug 2026 · Premier League88 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not winWhich clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Hull | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
  Brighton | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
 Coventry | 6 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
  Manchester City | 1 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
  Arsenal | 1 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
  Newcastle United | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | −1.4 |
  Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 1.9 | −1.9 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 1.9 | −1.9 |
| Newcastle United | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | −1.4 |
| Arsenal | 1 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| Manchester City | 1 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| Coventry | 6 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| Brighton | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Hull | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 55 | 50 | 23 | 0 | 2.93 | 2.67 | 0.224 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.