All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Manchester City since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 73 times in 100; it said 71. Draws: said 17, happened 14 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened73 in 100Vesta said 71
Draws14 in 100Vesta said 17
Goals a match3.26Vesta expected 3.41
Likeliest score happened9 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 233 | 5.8 | 5.6 | −0.2 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 267 | 14.8 | 14.6 | −0.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 182 | 24.2 | 22.0 | −2.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 22 | 35.4 | 31.8 | −3.6 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 33 | 46.0 | 45.5 | −0.6 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 50 | 55.1 | 56.0 | +0.9 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 54 | 65.2 | 72.2 | +7.0 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 96 | 75.6 | 77.1 | +1.5 |
| 80–90 in 100 | 77 | 84.4 | 83.1 | −1.3 |
| 90–100 in 100 | 30 | 92.4 | 96.7 | +4.3 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Manchester City 2-3 Crystal Palace
Sat 22 Dec 2018 · Premier League3 in 100- Manchester City 0-0 Huddersfield
Sun 6 May 2018 · Premier League4 in 100 - Manchester City 0-2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sun 6 Oct 2019 · Premier League4 in 100 - Manchester City 0-2 Crystal PalaceSat 30 Oct 2021 · Premier League5 in 100
- Manchester City 1-2 Brentford
Sat 12 Nov 2022 · Premier League5 in 100 
Newcastle United 2-1 Manchester CityTue 29 Jan 2019 · Premier League6 in 100- Manchester City 1-2 Leeds
Sat 10 Apr 2021 · Premier League7 in 100 - Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 Manchester CitySat 30 Sep 2023 · Premier League7 in 100
- Manchester City 2-3 Tottenham
Sat 19 Feb 2022 · Premier League7 in 100 
Norwich 3-2 Manchester CitySat 14 Sep 2019 · Premier League8 in 100- Manchester City 1-1 West Bromwich Albion
Tue 15 Dec 2020 · Premier League8 in 100 - Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United
Sat 7 Dec 2019 · Premier League9 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Manchester City 0-0 HuddersfieldSun 6 May 2018 · home win said96 in 100
- Manchester City 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionTue 15 Dec 2020 · home win said90 in 100
- Manchester City 2-3 Crystal PalaceSat 22 Dec 2018 · home win said88 in 100
- Manchester City 2-2 Crystal PalaceSat 18 Jan 2020 · home win said87 in 100
- Manchester City 0-2 Wolverhampton WanderersSun 6 Oct 2019 · home win said86 in 100
- Manchester City 1-1 Everton
Sat 31 Dec 2022 · home win said85 in 100 - Manchester City 0-0 Southampton
Sat 18 Sep 2021 · home win said83 in 100 - Manchester City 0-2 Crystal PalaceSat 30 Oct 2021 · home win said83 in 100
- Manchester City 1-2 BrentfordSat 12 Nov 2022 · home win said83 in 100
- Southampton 0-0 Manchester CitySat 10 May 2025 · away win said82 in 100
- Southampton 1-1 Manchester CitySat 22 Jan 2022 · away win said81 in 100
- Manchester City 2-2 Crystal PalaceSat 16 Dec 2023 · home win said81 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Tottenham | 18 | 24 | 12.1 | +11.9 |
  Manchester City | 348 | 805 | 795.3 | +9.7 |
  Manchester United | 19 | 23 | 13.4 | +9.6 |
  Aston Villa | 14 | 13 | 8.0 | +5.0 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 |
  Norwich | 4 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1 |
  Brighton | 18 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 |
  Crystal Palace | 19 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 |
  Southampton | 14 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
  Brentford | 10 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 |
  Leeds | 8 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arsenal | 18 | 9 | 15.9 | −6.9 |
  Fulham | 12 | 0 | 5.4 | −5.4 |
  Everton | 18 | 4 | 8.3 | −4.3 |
  West Ham | 18 | 3 | 6.9 | −3.9 |
  Chelsea | 18 | 12 | 15.8 | −3.8 |
  Bournemouth | 15 | 4 | 7.1 | −3.1 |
  Burnley | 14 | 1 | 4.0 | −3.0 |
  Watford | 8 | 0 | 2.2 | −2.2 |
  Sheffield United | 6 | 0 | 2.2 | −2.2 |
  Liverpool | 19 | 21 | 22.3 | −1.3 |
  Ipswich | 2 | 0 | 0.8 | −0.8 |
  Sunderland | 3 | 1 | 1.8 | −0.8 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Manchester City's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 55 | 100 | 24 | 0 | 3.04 | 3.50 | 0.139 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 57 | 58 | 23 | 24 | 3.04 | 2.95 | 0.188 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 62 | 63 | 21 | 21 | 3.35 | 3.05 | 0.177 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 69 | 76 | 18 | 18 | 3.41 | 3.42 | 0.118 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 73 | 74 | 16 | 13 | 3.40 | 3.34 | 0.134 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 75 | 76 | 16 | 16 | 3.34 | 3.29 | 0.127 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 72 | 71 | 17 | 13 | 3.28 | 3.03 | 0.154 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 76 | 68 | 14 | 8 | 3.67 | 3.61 | 0.190 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 79 | 84 | 13 | 5 | 3.68 | 3.11 | 0.108 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 76 | 84 | 14 | 11 | 3.59 | 3.50 | 0.104 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.