All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Arsenal since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 63 times in 100; it said 58. Draws: said 22, happened 20 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened63 in 100Vesta said 58
Draws20 in 100Vesta said 22
Goals a match2.94Vesta expected 3.03
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 66 | 7.1 | 6.1 | −1.1 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 215 | 15.7 | 9.8 | −5.9 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 356 | 24.8 | 24.4 | −0.4 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 89 | 34.7 | 32.6 | −2.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 85 | 45.2 | 47.1 | +1.9 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 85 | 55.5 | 57.6 | +2.2 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 75 | 64.4 | 74.7 | +10.3 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 57 | 75.1 | 82.5 | +7.3 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Arsenal 0-1 West Ham
Sat 22 Feb 2025 · Premier League6 in 100- Arsenal 0-2 West HamThu 28 Dec 2023 · Premier League8 in 100
- Arsenal 0-2 Aston Villa
Sun 14 Apr 2024 · Premier League9 in 100 
Everton 1-0 ArsenalSat 4 Feb 2023 · Premier League10 in 100- Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth
Sat 11 Apr 2026 · Premier League11 in 100 
Swansea 3-1 ArsenalTue 30 Jan 2018 · Premier League11 in 100
Brentford 2-0 ArsenalFri 13 Aug 2021 · Premier League11 in 100- Arsenal 3-3 Southampton
Fri 21 Apr 2023 · Premier League14 in 100 - Arsenal 0-0 EvertonSat 14 Dec 2024 · Premier League14 in 100
- Arsenal 1-2 BournemouthSat 3 May 2025 · Premier League15 in 100
Nottingham Forest 1-0 ArsenalSat 20 May 2023 · Premier League15 in 100- Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace
Sun 21 Apr 2019 · Premier League15 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Arsenal 0-1 West HamSat 22 Feb 2025 · home win said80 in 100
- Arsenal 0-0 EvertonSat 14 Dec 2024 · home win said80 in 100
- Arsenal 3-3 SouthamptonFri 21 Apr 2023 · home win said80 in 100
- Arsenal 0-2 West HamThu 28 Dec 2023 · home win said77 in 100
- Arsenal 1-1 Brighton
Sun 5 May 2019 · home win said75 in 100 - Arsenal 0-2 Aston VillaSun 14 Apr 2024 · home win said75 in 100
- Arsenal 2-2 Fulham
Sat 26 Aug 2023 · home win said73 in 100 - Everton 1-0 ArsenalSat 4 Feb 2023 · away win said73 in 100
- Arsenal 1-1 BrightonSat 31 Aug 2024 · home win said73 in 100
Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-2 ArsenalWed 18 Feb 2026 · away win said70 in 100- Swansea 3-1 ArsenalTue 30 Jan 2018 · away win said70 in 100
- Arsenal 2-2 Aston VillaSat 18 Jan 2025 · home win said70 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arsenal | 348 | 666 | 633.1 | +32.9 |
  Manchester City | 18 | 42 | 34.2 | +7.8 |
  Brighton | 19 | 23 | 16.7 | +6.3 |
  Aston Villa | 15 | 19 | 13.2 | +5.8 |
  Bournemouth | 14 | 13 | 9.8 | +3.2 |
  Everton | 18 | 18 | 15.1 | +2.9 |
  Swansea | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1 |
  Liverpool | 18 | 31 | 29.1 | +1.9 |
  Stoke | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
 Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | −0.2 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16 | 12 | 12.5 | −0.5 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Chelsea | 19 | 15 | 26.3 | −11.3 |
  Leeds | 9 | 1 | 7.3 | −6.3 |
  Tottenham | 18 | 15 | 21.0 | −6.0 |
  Crystal Palace | 18 | 12 | 15.5 | −3.5 |
  Newcastle United | 18 | 13 | 16.1 | −3.1 |
  Fulham | 12 | 6 | 8.8 | −2.8 |
  Burnley | 14 | 6 | 8.8 | −2.8 |
  Watford | 8 | 4 | 6.3 | −2.3 |
  Norwich | 4 | 1 | 3.2 | −2.2 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 0 | 2.1 | −2.1 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.9 |
  Manchester United | 18 | 19 | 20.8 | −1.8 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 63 | 83 | 22 | 0 | 2.90 | 2.50 | 0.136 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 62 | 74 | 23 | 18 | 2.83 | 2.58 | 0.140 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 65 | 53 | 21 | 37 | 3.12 | 2.71 | 0.162 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 65 | 76 | 19 | 13 | 3.27 | 3.16 | 0.142 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 59 | 68 | 22 | 16 | 3.09 | 3.45 | 0.177 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 71 | 25 | 8 | 2.81 | 2.87 | 0.208 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 55 | 26 | 18 | 2.72 | 2.47 | 0.218 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 45 | 24 | 37 | 3.04 | 2.74 | 0.187 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 58 | 61 | 21 | 18 | 3.23 | 3.26 | 0.166 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 60 | 63 | 21 | 16 | 3.19 | 3.29 | 0.176 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.