All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 6 league matches of Hull since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 17 times in 100; it said 46. Draws: said 27, happened 50 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches6each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened17 in 100Vesta said 46
Draws50 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.33Vesta expected 2.75
Likeliest score happened0 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Hull 2-0 Manchester United
Sat 22 Aug 2026 · Premier League19 in 100
Chelsea 2-2 HullSat 12 Sep 2026 · Premier League24 in 100- Hull 0-0 Aston Villa
Sat 5 Sep 2026 · Premier League28 in 100 - Hull 2-2 Everton
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · Premier League31 in 100 
Coventry 0-1 HullSat 29 Aug 2026 · Premier League35 in 100
Newcastle United 2-1 HullSat 19 Sep 2026 · Premier League47 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not winWhich clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Hull | 6 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
  Newcastle United | 1 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 |
  Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | −0.2 |
  Everton | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | −0.3 |
  Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | −1.0 |
 Coventry | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | −1.4 |
  Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | −2.0 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | −2.0 |
| Coventry | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | −1.4 |
| Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | −1.0 |
| Everton | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | −0.3 |
| Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | −0.2 |
| Newcastle United | 1 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 |
| Hull | 6 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 46 | 17 | 27 | 50 | 2.75 | 2.33 | 0.230 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.