All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 158 league matches of Nottingham Forest since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 48 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 26 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches158each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened48 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws26 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.77Vesta expected 2.86
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 53 | 15.8 | 13.2 | −2.6 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 198 | 26.0 | 27.3 | +1.3 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 80 | 34.4 | 31.2 | −3.1 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 63 | 44.7 | 47.6 | +2.9 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 31 | 54.8 | 58.1 | +3.3 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 21 | 65.3 | 61.9 | −3.4 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest
Sat 14 Sep 2024 · Premier League7 in 100
Newcastle United 1-3 Nottingham ForestTue 26 Dec 2023 · Premier League8 in 100- Nottingham Forest 1-0 LiverpoolSat 22 Oct 2022 · Premier League9 in 100
- Liverpool 0-3 Nottingham ForestSat 22 Nov 2025 · Premier League10 in 100
- Nottingham Forest 3-1 Brighton
Wed 26 Apr 2023 · Premier League13 in 100 
Chelsea 0-1 Nottingham ForestSat 2 Sep 2023 · Premier League14 in 100- Nottingham Forest 1-0 Arsenal
Sat 20 May 2023 · Premier League15 in 100 - Nottingham Forest 1-1 Manchester City
Sat 18 Feb 2023 · Premier League15 in 100 - Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · Premier League19 in 100 - Brighton 0-0 Nottingham ForestTue 18 Oct 2022 · Premier League19 in 100
Brentford 0-2 Nottingham ForestSun 25 Jan 2026 · Premier League20 in 100- Chelsea 1-3 Nottingham ForestMon 4 May 2026 · Premier League20 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham ForestSat 14 Sep 2024 · home win said79 in 100
- Nottingham Forest 1-1 Manchester CitySat 18 Feb 2023 · away win said78 in 100
- Newcastle United 1-3 Nottingham ForestTue 26 Dec 2023 · home win said76 in 100
- Nottingham Forest 1-0 LiverpoolSat 22 Oct 2022 · away win said75 in 100
- Liverpool 0-3 Nottingham ForestSat 22 Nov 2025 · home win said71 in 100
- Brighton 0-0 Nottingham ForestTue 18 Oct 2022 · home win said70 in 100
- Nottingham Forest 2-2 Leicester
Sun 11 May 2025 · home win said68 in 100 - Manchester City 2-2 Nottingham ForestWed 4 Mar 2026 · home win said68 in 100
- Nottingham Forest 3-1 BrightonWed 26 Apr 2023 · away win said68 in 100
- Chelsea 1-1 Nottingham ForestSun 6 Oct 2024 · home win said66 in 100
- Chelsea 2-2 Nottingham ForestSat 13 May 2023 · home win said65 in 100
- Nottingham Forest 1-0 ArsenalSat 20 May 2023 · away win said65 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Nottingham Forest | 158 | 188 | 176.1 | +11.9 |
  Fulham | 8 | 19 | 12.0 | +7.0 |
  Everton | 8 | 17 | 11.0 | +6.0 |
  Newcastle United | 8 | 19 | 14.4 | +4.6 |
  Bournemouth | 8 | 16 | 11.6 | +4.4 |
 Coventry | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2 |
  Leeds | 5 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 |
  Sunderland | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
  Brighton | 8 | 14 | 14.5 | −0.5 |
  Luton | 2 | 2 | 2.6 | −0.6 |
  Arsenal | 8 | 17 | 17.7 | −0.7 |
  Manchester United | 8 | 13 | 13.8 | −0.8 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Liverpool | 9 | 14 | 20.3 | −6.3 |
  Southampton | 4 | 0 | 4.9 | −4.9 |
  Crystal Palace | 9 | 9 | 13.6 | −4.6 |
  Chelsea | 8 | 12 | 15.2 | −3.2 |
  Brentford | 8 | 11 | 13.5 | −2.5 |
  Sheffield United | 2 | 0 | 2.2 | −2.2 |
  Burnley | 4 | 2 | 4.2 | −2.2 |
  West Ham | 8 | 9 | 10.8 | −1.8 |
  Tottenham | 9 | 13 | 14.8 | −1.8 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 8 | 8 | 9.7 | −1.7 |
  Ipswich | 2 | 0 | 1.6 | −1.6 |
  Manchester City | 8 | 17 | 18.4 | −1.4 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Nottingham Forest's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 47 | 0 | 27 | 33 | 2.73 | 2.17 | 0.290 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 45 | 27 | 29 | 2.74 | 2.61 | 0.218 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 45 | 26 | 21 | 2.83 | 2.74 | 0.233 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 61 | 24 | 24 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 0.185 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 55 | 50 | 24 | 29 | 2.92 | 2.79 | 0.201 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.