All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Brighton since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 44 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 32 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened44 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws32 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.69Vesta expected 2.86
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 36 | 6.9 | 2.8 | −4.1 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 115 | 16.3 | 20.9 | +4.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 427 | 25.9 | 30.7 | +4.8 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 186 | 34.7 | 34.4 | −0.3 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 127 | 44.6 | 37.0 | −7.5 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 78 | 54.3 | 41.0 | −13.3 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 42 | 64.0 | 52.4 | −11.7 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 22 | 74.4 | 77.3 | +2.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Brighton 1-5 Everton
Mon 8 May 2023 · Premier League10 in 100- Brighton 1-1 Sheffield United
Sun 12 Nov 2023 · Premier League11 in 100 
Nottingham Forest 3-1 BrightonWed 26 Apr 2023 · Premier League13 in 100- Brighton 3-2 Manchester City
Tue 18 May 2021 · Premier League15 in 100 - Brighton 1-3 West Ham
Sat 26 Aug 2023 · Premier League16 in 100 
Liverpool 0-1 BrightonWed 3 Feb 2021 · Premier League16 in 100- Sheffield United 1-0 BrightonSat 24 Apr 2021 · Premier League16 in 100
Arsenal 1-1 BrightonSun 5 May 2019 · Premier League16 in 100- Brighton 1-2 Aston Villa
Sun 13 Nov 2022 · Premier League16 in 100 - Brighton 0-3 Burnley
Sat 19 Feb 2022 · Premier League17 in 100 - Brighton 2-2 Leicester
Sat 12 Apr 2025 · Premier League17 in 100 
West Bromwich Albion 1-0 BrightonSat 27 Feb 2021 · Premier League17 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Brighton 1-1 Sheffield UnitedSun 12 Nov 2023 · home win said83 in 100
- Arsenal 1-1 BrightonSun 5 May 2019 · home win said75 in 100
- Brighton 2-2 LeicesterSat 12 Apr 2025 · home win said74 in 100
- Brighton 1-5 EvertonMon 8 May 2023 · home win said74 in 100
- Arsenal 1-1 BrightonSat 31 Aug 2024 · home win said73 in 100
- Brighton 0-0 Nottingham ForestTue 18 Oct 2022 · home win said70 in 100
- Brighton 1-1 Southampton
Fri 29 Nov 2024 · home win said68 in 100 - Brighton 1-1 Fulham
Sun 29 Oct 2023 · home win said68 in 100 - Nottingham Forest 3-1 BrightonWed 26 Apr 2023 · away win said68 in 100
- Brighton 1-1 BurnleySat 9 Dec 2023 · home win said67 in 100
- Liverpool 2-2 BrightonSat 30 Oct 2021 · home win said66 in 100
- Brighton 0-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Mon 22 Jan 2024 · home win said66 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Aston Villa | 15 | 30 | 19.5 | +10.5 |
  Fulham | 12 | 23 | 13.9 | +9.1 |
  Everton | 18 | 29 | 23.3 | +5.7 |
  Leicester | 14 | 24 | 19.7 | +4.3 |
  Bournemouth | 14 | 20 | 16.6 | +3.4 |
  Crystal Palace | 18 | 26 | 22.8 | +3.2 |
  Cardiff | 2 | 6 | 2.8 | +3.2 |
  Sheffield United | 6 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 |
  Luton | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 |
  Manchester United | 18 | 30 | 28.6 | +1.4 |
  Burnley | 14 | 16 | 15.0 | +1.0 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Brighton | 348 | 446 | 457.5 | −11.5 |
  West Ham | 18 | 13 | 22.8 | −9.8 |
  Newcastle United | 18 | 17 | 25.4 | −8.4 |
  Arsenal | 19 | 29 | 35.8 | −6.8 |
  Watford | 8 | 6 | 11.2 | −5.2 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16 | 13 | 18.1 | −5.1 |
  Liverpool | 18 | 34 | 38.4 | −4.4 |
  Brentford | 10 | 9 | 12.7 | −3.7 |
  Leeds | 9 | 7 | 10.2 | −3.2 |
  Sunderland | 3 | 1 | 3.3 | −2.3 |
  Swansea | 2 | 0 | 2.3 | −2.3 |
  Manchester City | 18 | 39 | 40.9 | −1.9 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 44 | 67 | 27 | 17 | 2.85 | 3.83 | 0.240 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 47 | 47 | 26 | 29 | 2.94 | 2.58 | 0.209 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 37 | 25 | 34 | 3.05 | 3.29 | 0.240 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 55 | 53 | 22 | 32 | 3.29 | 3.08 | 0.193 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 50 | 25 | 21 | 2.91 | 3.29 | 0.229 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 37 | 28 | 39 | 2.51 | 2.26 | 0.216 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 34 | 26 | 37 | 2.67 | 2.26 | 0.229 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 42 | 24 | 37 | 2.85 | 2.45 | 0.191 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 45 | 24 | 24 | 2.84 | 2.50 | 0.193 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 50 | 25 | 34 | 2.66 | 2.32 | 0.171 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.