All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Newcastle United since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 52 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 24, happened 24 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened52 in 100Vesta said 53
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.82Vesta expected 2.93
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 42 | 6.8 | 4.8 | −2.1 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 135 | 16.0 | 20.0 | +4.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 417 | 25.5 | 24.9 | −0.5 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 158 | 34.5 | 36.7 | +2.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 112 | 44.8 | 42.0 | −2.9 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 104 | 54.9 | 52.9 | −2.0 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 29 | 64.8 | 58.6 | −6.2 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 32 | 74.8 | 75.0 | +0.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Newcastle United 2-1 Manchester City
Tue 29 Jan 2019 · Premier League6 in 100- Newcastle United 1-3 Nottingham Forest
Tue 26 Dec 2023 · Premier League8 in 100 
Bournemouth 2-0 Newcastle UnitedSat 11 Nov 2023 · Premier League10 in 100
Leicester 2-4 Newcastle UnitedFri 7 May 2021 · Premier League13 in 100- Newcastle United 0-2 West Ham
Mon 25 Nov 2024 · Premier League13 in 100 - Newcastle United 1-0 Chelsea
Sat 18 Jan 2020 · Premier League14 in 100 - Newcastle United 2-2 Manchester CitySat 30 Nov 2019 · Premier League14 in 100
Luton 1-0 Newcastle UnitedSat 23 Dec 2023 · Premier League15 in 100- Newcastle United 4-4 LutonSat 3 Feb 2024 · Premier League15 in 100
- Newcastle United 0-0 Liverpool
Wed 30 Dec 2020 · Premier League15 in 100 
Tottenham 0-1 Newcastle UnitedSun 25 Aug 2019 · Premier League15 in 100- Newcastle United 3-3 Manchester CitySun 21 Aug 2022 · Premier League16 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Newcastle United 2-1 Manchester CityTue 29 Jan 2019 · away win said80 in 100
- Newcastle United 2-2 Manchester CitySat 30 Nov 2019 · away win said79 in 100
- Newcastle United 0-0 LiverpoolWed 30 Dec 2020 · away win said78 in 100
- Newcastle United 3-3 Manchester CitySun 21 Aug 2022 · away win said77 in 100
- Newcastle United 1-3 Nottingham ForestTue 26 Dec 2023 · home win said76 in 100
- Newcastle United 4-4 LutonSat 3 Feb 2024 · home win said76 in 100
- Bournemouth 2-0 Newcastle UnitedSat 11 Nov 2023 · away win said73 in 100
- Newcastle United 0-0 LeicesterMon 22 May 2023 · home win said73 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 Newcastle UnitedSat 24 Apr 2021 · home win said72 in 100
- Newcastle United 0-2 West HamMon 25 Nov 2024 · home win said68 in 100
- Leicester 2-4 Newcastle UnitedFri 7 May 2021 · home win said67 in 100
- Luton 1-0 Newcastle UnitedSat 23 Dec 2023 · away win said66 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Newcastle United | 348 | 481 | 448.5 | +32.5 |
  Liverpool | 19 | 47 | 40.6 | +6.4 |
  Arsenal | 18 | 40 | 33.7 | +6.3 |
  Brighton | 18 | 29 | 23.8 | +5.2 |
  Sunderland | 2 | 6 | 1.9 | +4.1 |
  Bournemouth | 15 | 20 | 16.7 | +3.3 |
  Luton | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | +2.9 |
  Watford | 8 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 |
 Coventry | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
  Aston Villa | 14 | 21 | 19.5 | +1.5 |
  Leeds | 9 | 13 | 11.9 | +1.1 |
  Everton | 18 | 25 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Southampton | 14 | 6 | 18.3 | −12.3 |
  Burnley | 14 | 8 | 15.9 | −7.9 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16 | 14 | 20.1 | −6.1 |
  West Ham | 18 | 19 | 23.3 | −4.3 |
  Sheffield United | 6 | 3 | 6.9 | −3.9 |
  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 4 | 7.6 | −3.6 |
  Tottenham | 19 | 27 | 30.6 | −3.6 |
  Crystal Palace | 18 | 21 | 24.0 | −3.0 |
  Brentford | 10 | 10 | 13.0 | −3.0 |
  Stoke | 2 | 0 | 2.6 | −2.6 |
  Fulham | 12 | 11 | 13.6 | −2.6 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 3 | 5.1 | −2.1 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Newcastle United's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 41 | 50 | 28 | 33 | 2.86 | 3.83 | 0.201 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 53 | 26 | 18 | 2.90 | 2.84 | 0.225 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 61 | 23 | 16 | 3.32 | 3.03 | 0.198 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 57 | 58 | 22 | 16 | 3.39 | 3.87 | 0.222 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 53 | 25 | 37 | 2.86 | 2.66 | 0.182 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 45 | 24 | 26 | 2.89 | 2.79 | 0.190 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 55 | 47 | 24 | 24 | 2.81 | 2.84 | 0.214 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 45 | 25 | 29 | 2.75 | 2.53 | 0.217 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 61 | 25 | 24 | 2.68 | 2.37 | 0.192 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 47 | 24 | 21 | 2.81 | 2.26 | 0.210 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.