All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Manchester United since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 54 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 24, happened 24 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened54 in 100Vesta said 54
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.87Vesta expected 2.98
Likeliest score happened10 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 26 | 8.2 | 11.5 | +3.4 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 158 | 15.8 | 19.6 | +3.8 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 439 | 25.0 | 23.7 | −1.3 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 108 | 34.7 | 29.6 | −5.1 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 114 | 45.1 | 55.3 | +10.2 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 99 | 54.6 | 53.5 | −1.0 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 59 | 64.0 | 54.2 | −9.7 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 38 | 73.8 | 71.1 | −2.7 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Manchester United 0-2 Cardiff
Sun 12 May 2019 · Premier League8 in 100- Manchester United 0-1 West Bromwich Albion
Sun 15 Apr 2018 · Premier League8 in 100 
Manchester City 1-2 Manchester UnitedSat 7 Dec 2019 · Premier League9 in 100- Manchester City 2-3 Manchester UnitedSat 7 Apr 2018 · Premier League10 in 100
- Manchester City 1-2 Manchester UnitedSun 15 Dec 2024 · Premier League11 in 100
- Manchester United 1-3 Crystal Palace
Sat 19 Sep 2020 · Premier League12 in 100 - Manchester United 0-2 Burnley
Wed 22 Jan 2020 · Premier League12 in 100 - Manchester United 1-2 Sheffield United
Wed 27 Jan 2021 · Premier League12 in 100 - Manchester City 0-2 Manchester UnitedSun 7 Mar 2021 · Premier League14 in 100
Watford 4-1 Manchester UnitedSat 20 Nov 2021 · Premier League14 in 100
Liverpool 2-2 Manchester UnitedSun 5 Jan 2025 · Premier League15 in 100- West Bromwich Albion 1-1 Manchester UnitedSun 14 Feb 2021 · Premier League15 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- West Bromwich Albion 1-1 Manchester UnitedSun 14 Feb 2021 · away win said78 in 100
- Liverpool 2-2 Manchester UnitedSun 5 Jan 2025 · home win said78 in 100
- Manchester United 2-2 BurnleyTue 26 Dec 2017 · home win said77 in 100
- Manchester United 0-2 CardiffSun 12 May 2019 · home win said77 in 100
- Manchester City 1-2 Manchester UnitedSat 7 Dec 2019 · home win said76 in 100
- Manchester United 2-2 BurnleyTue 29 Jan 2019 · home win said75 in 100
- Manchester United 0-1 West Bromwich AlbionSun 15 Apr 2018 · home win said74 in 100
- Manchester City 1-2 Manchester UnitedSun 15 Dec 2024 · home win said72 in 100
- Manchester City 2-3 Manchester UnitedSat 7 Apr 2018 · home win said72 in 100
- Crystal Palace 0-0 Manchester UnitedWed 3 Mar 2021 · away win said71 in 100
- Manchester United 1-1 West Ham
Wed 22 Jul 2020 · home win said70 in 100 
Huddersfield 1-1 Manchester UnitedSun 5 May 2019 · away win said70 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Manchester United | 348 | 599 | 556.0 | +43.0 |
  Crystal Palace | 18 | 22 | 18.2 | +3.8 |
  West Ham | 18 | 22 | 18.3 | +3.7 |
  Newcastle United | 18 | 23 | 19.5 | +3.5 |
  Brighton | 18 | 24 | 20.8 | +3.2 |
  Hull | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2 |
  Arsenal | 18 | 31 | 28.8 | +2.2 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 |
  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 4 | 2.2 | +1.8 |
  Cardiff | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
  Watford | 8 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Chelsea | 18 | 17 | 29.1 | −12.1 |
  Manchester City | 19 | 32 | 39.7 | −7.7 |
  Fulham | 13 | 6 | 12.8 | −6.8 |
  Liverpool | 18 | 28 | 34.4 | −6.4 |
  Southampton | 14 | 7 | 12.3 | −5.3 |
  Everton | 19 | 15 | 19.9 | −4.9 |
  Leicester | 14 | 9 | 13.8 | −4.8 |
  Aston Villa | 14 | 12 | 16.7 | −4.7 |
  Brentford | 10 | 10 | 13.1 | −3.1 |
  Norwich | 4 | 0 | 2.6 | −2.6 |
  Burnley | 14 | 8 | 10.2 | −2.2 |
  Leeds | 8 | 6 | 7.9 | −1.9 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Manchester United's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 51 | 33 | 25 | 50 | 2.98 | 3.00 | 0.211 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 45 | 26 | 29 | 2.93 | 3.13 | 0.235 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 47 | 25 | 24 | 3.13 | 2.58 | 0.216 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 53 | 23 | 16 | 3.20 | 3.03 | 0.218 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 63 | 25 | 16 | 2.89 | 2.66 | 0.193 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 54 | 58 | 24 | 26 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 0.202 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 56 | 55 | 24 | 29 | 2.90 | 3.08 | 0.204 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 56 | 39 | 23 | 32 | 2.95 | 2.68 | 0.233 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 57 | 61 | 22 | 24 | 3.02 | 3.13 | 0.177 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 59 | 66 | 22 | 16 | 2.89 | 2.53 | 0.191 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.