All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Everton since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 45 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened45 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.54Vesta expected 2.79
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 30 | 7.7 | 6.7 | −1.0 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 109 | 16.1 | 21.1 | +5.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 432 | 26.1 | 27.1 | +1.0 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 210 | 34.9 | 38.1 | +3.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 120 | 44.8 | 35.0 | −9.8 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 83 | 54.8 | 55.4 | +0.6 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 24 | 63.7 | 54.2 | −9.5 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 31 | 75.0 | 67.7 | −7.3 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Everton 1-0 Arsenal
Sat 4 Feb 2023 · Premier League10 in 100
Brighton 1-5 EvertonMon 8 May 2023 · Premier League10 in 100- Everton 0-2 Norwich
Sat 23 Nov 2019 · Premier League10 in 100 
Manchester City 1-1 EvertonSat 31 Dec 2022 · Premier League11 in 100- Everton 1-0 Chelsea
Sun 1 May 2022 · Premier League12 in 100 - Arsenal 0-0 EvertonSat 14 Dec 2024 · Premier League14 in 100
- Everton 0-1 Sheffield United
Sun 16 May 2021 · Premier League15 in 100 
Brentford 1-3 EvertonSat 23 Sep 2023 · Premier League15 in 100- Everton 0-0 Liverpool
Sat 3 Sep 2022 · Premier League15 in 100 - Manchester City 1-1 EvertonMon 21 Aug 2017 · Premier League16 in 100
- Liverpool 0-2 EvertonSat 20 Feb 2021 · Premier League16 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 EvertonSun 10 Dec 2017 · Premier League16 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Manchester City 1-1 EvertonSat 31 Dec 2022 · home win said85 in 100
- Arsenal 0-0 EvertonSat 14 Dec 2024 · home win said80 in 100
- Everton 0-0 LiverpoolSat 3 Sep 2022 · away win said77 in 100
- Manchester City 1-1 EvertonMon 21 Aug 2017 · home win said76 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 EvertonSun 10 Dec 2017 · home win said75 in 100
- Brighton 1-5 EvertonMon 8 May 2023 · home win said74 in 100
- Everton 1-0 ArsenalSat 4 Feb 2023 · away win said73 in 100
- Chelsea 0-0 EvertonSun 11 Nov 2018 · home win said73 in 100
- Chelsea 1-1 EvertonThu 16 Dec 2021 · home win said72 in 100
- Everton 0-2 NorwichSat 23 Nov 2019 · home win said72 in 100
- Manchester City 1-1 EvertonThu 26 Dec 2024 · home win said71 in 100
- Everton 0-0 LiverpoolSun 3 Mar 2019 · away win said69 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Everton | 348 | 441 | 429.0 | +12.0 |
  Aston Villa | 14 | 31 | 20.9 | +10.1 |
  Bournemouth | 15 | 26 | 19.7 | +6.3 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16 | 25 | 19.3 | +5.7 |
  Tottenham | 19 | 37 | 31.6 | +5.4 |
  West Ham | 18 | 28 | 23.9 | +4.1 |
  Manchester United | 19 | 36 | 32.2 | +3.8 |
  Manchester City | 18 | 46 | 42.6 | +3.4 |
  Burnley | 14 | 17 | 14.0 | +3.0 |
  Norwich | 4 | 6 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
  Southampton | 14 | 20 | 17.6 | +2.4 |
  Watford | 8 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Crystal Palace | 19 | 10 | 25.9 | −15.9 |
  Chelsea | 18 | 26 | 35.6 | −9.6 |
  Liverpool | 18 | 34 | 40.1 | −6.1 |
  Brighton | 18 | 20 | 25.9 | −5.9 |
  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 5 | 10.7 | −5.7 |
  Leicester | 14 | 16 | 21.5 | −5.5 |
  Huddersfield | 4 | 1 | 4.0 | −3.0 |
  Brentford | 10 | 13 | 16.0 | −3.0 |
  Stoke | 2 | 0 | 2.4 | −2.4 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 2 | 4.3 | −2.3 |
  Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2.2 | −2.2 |
  Leeds | 8 | 9 | 11.0 | −2.0 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 42 | 33 | 29 | 67 | 2.64 | 2.17 | 0.154 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 45 | 45 | 28 | 26 | 2.57 | 2.55 | 0.225 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 50 | 34 | 26 | 39 | 2.75 | 2.26 | 0.211 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 39 | 24 | 24 | 3.01 | 2.39 | 0.218 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 39 | 25 | 32 | 2.84 | 2.39 | 0.215 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 47 | 26 | 16 | 2.73 | 2.87 | 0.236 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 37 | 26 | 21 | 2.71 | 2.50 | 0.257 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 50 | 50 | 25 | 26 | 2.77 | 2.63 | 0.206 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 53 | 24 | 24 | 2.85 | 2.63 | 0.208 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 61 | 24 | 26 | 2.85 | 2.68 | 0.176 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.