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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 272 league matches of Aston Villa since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 20 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches272each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws20 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.87Vesta expected 2.93
Likeliest score happened9 in 100Vesta said 12

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
10–20 in 1008616.111.6−4.4
20–30 in 10035725.724.4−1.3
30–40 in 10013634.939.0+4.1
40–50 in 10010344.946.6+1.7
50–60 in 1006854.648.5−6.1
60–70 in 1003165.477.4+12.0

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Arsenal 0-2 Aston VillaSun 14 Apr 2024 · Premier League9 in 100
  2. Aston Villa 7-2 LiverpoolSun 4 Oct 2020 · Premier League9 in 100
  3. Aston Villa 1-1 Sheffield UnitedFri 22 Dec 2023 · Premier League10 in 100
  4. Manchester City 1-2 Aston VillaSun 24 May 2026 · Premier League13 in 100
  5. Aston Villa 2-1 ChelseaSun 23 May 2021 · Premier League15 in 100
  6. Brighton 1-2 Aston VillaSun 13 Nov 2022 · Premier League16 in 100
  7. Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester CitySat 3 Sep 2022 · Premier League17 in 100
  8. Manchester United 0-1 Aston VillaSat 25 Sep 2021 · Premier League18 in 100
  9. Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester UnitedSun 11 Feb 2024 · Premier League18 in 100
  10. Tottenham 0-2 Aston VillaSun 1 Jan 2023 · Premier League18 in 100
  11. Manchester United 2-2 Aston VillaSun 1 Dec 2019 · Premier League19 in 100
  12. Arsenal 2-2 Aston VillaSat 18 Jan 2025 · Premier League19 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Aston Villa 1-1 Sheffield UnitedFri 22 Dec 2023 · home win said87 in 100
  2. Arsenal 0-2 Aston VillaSun 14 Apr 2024 · home win said75 in 100
  3. Aston Villa 7-2 LiverpoolSun 4 Oct 2020 · away win said74 in 100
  4. Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester CitySat 3 Sep 2022 · away win said74 in 100
  5. Arsenal 2-2 Aston VillaSat 18 Jan 2025 · home win said70 in 100
  6. Aston Villa 1-1 IpswichSat 15 Feb 2025 · home win said68 in 100
  7. Manchester United 2-2 Aston VillaSun 1 Dec 2019 · home win said68 in 100
  8. Manchester City 1-2 Aston VillaSun 24 May 2026 · home win said66 in 100
  9. Liverpool 1-1 Aston VillaSat 20 May 2023 · home win said64 in 100
  10. Aston Villa 1-1 West HamSun 26 Jan 2025 · home win said63 in 100
  11. Aston Villa 2-1 ChelseaSun 23 May 2021 · away win said63 in 100
  12. Brighton 1-2 Aston VillaSun 13 Nov 2022 · home win said60 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Aston Villa272400361.9+38.1
Wolverhampton Wanderers142415.4+8.6
Manchester United142721.9+5.1
Watford495.3+3.7
Crystal Palace142117.7+3.3
Tottenham152422.0+2.0
West Ham142018.1+1.9
Nottingham Forest9119.3+1.7
Sheffield United686.8+1.2
Bournemouth101211.6+0.4
Ipswich221.6+0.4
Liverpool143029.8+0.2
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Everton14717.3−10.3
Brighton151221.6−9.6
Fulham10611.6−5.6
Norwich404.4−4.4
Manchester City142831.4−3.4
Leeds869.3−3.3
Arsenal152528.2−3.2
Burnley1079.9−2.9
Chelsea142325.3−2.3
Leicester101314.8−1.8
Brentford111314.5−1.5
Sunderland212.4−1.4

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Aston Villa's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27Premier League6433328332.722.830.194
2025-26Premier League38464527212.732.760.243
2024-25Premier League38525324243.132.870.201
2023-24Premier League38555523213.123.610.214
2022-23Premier League38495526182.752.550.226
2021-22Premier League38495026162.782.790.211
2020-21Premier League38494225182.852.660.252
2019-20Premier League38566122213.182.840.166

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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