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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 348 league matches of Chelsea since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 55 times in 100; it said 57. Draws: said 23, happened 24 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened55 in 100Vesta said 57
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match2.87Vesta expected 3.01
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 12

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
0–10 in 100517.59.8+2.3
10–20 in 10021415.918.2+2.3
20–30 in 10037224.626.6+2.0
30–40 in 1009235.030.4−4.6
40–50 in 1007745.241.6−3.6
50–60 in 10010155.255.4+0.3
60–70 in 1007764.863.6−1.2
70–80 in 1004974.565.3−9.2

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Chelsea 2-3 BurnleySat 12 Aug 2017 · Premier League5 in 100
  2. Chelsea 0-3 BournemouthWed 31 Jan 2018 · Premier League6 in 100
  3. Chelsea 2-5 West Bromwich AlbionSat 3 Apr 2021 · Premier League6 in 100
  4. Chelsea 0-1 West HamSat 30 Nov 2019 · Premier League9 in 100
  5. Chelsea 0-1 BournemouthSat 14 Dec 2019 · Premier League10 in 100
  6. Chelsea 0-1 LeicesterSat 22 Dec 2018 · Premier League11 in 100
  7. Chelsea 1-4 BrentfordSat 2 Apr 2022 · Premier League11 in 100
  8. Everton 1-0 ChelseaSun 1 May 2022 · Premier League12 in 100
  9. Leeds 3-0 ChelseaSun 21 Aug 2022 · Premier League12 in 100
  10. Chelsea 1-1 BurnleySat 21 Feb 2026 · Premier League13 in 100
  11. Ipswich 2-0 ChelseaMon 30 Dec 2024 · Premier League13 in 100
  12. Newcastle United 1-0 ChelseaSat 18 Jan 2020 · Premier League14 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Chelsea 2-3 BurnleySat 12 Aug 2017 · home win said84 in 100
  2. Chelsea 1-1 BurnleySat 21 Feb 2026 · home win said81 in 100
  3. Chelsea 0-3 BournemouthWed 31 Jan 2018 · home win said81 in 100
  4. Chelsea 1-1 HuddersfieldWed 9 May 2018 · home win said79 in 100
  5. Chelsea 1-1 West HamSun 8 Apr 2018 · home win said79 in 100
  6. Chelsea 2-5 West Bromwich AlbionSat 3 Apr 2021 · home win said78 in 100
  7. Chelsea 0-1 West HamSat 30 Nov 2019 · home win said77 in 100
  8. Chelsea 2-2 IpswichSun 13 Apr 2025 · home win said76 in 100
  9. Chelsea 2-2 Wolverhampton WanderersSat 7 May 2022 · home win said76 in 100
  10. Chelsea 0-0 SouthamptonWed 2 Jan 2019 · home win said76 in 100
  11. Chelsea 1-1 BurnleySat 6 Nov 2021 · home win said75 in 100
  12. Chelsea 2-2 BurnleyMon 22 Apr 2019 · home win said74 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Arsenal193626.0+10.0
Everton182314.1+8.9
Manchester United182920.4+8.6
Wolverhampton Wanderers161912.6+6.4
Manchester City183934.1+4.9
Brentford111611.3+4.7
West Ham181813.7+4.3
Sunderland261.9+4.1
Newcastle United182016.0+4.0
Aston Villa141713.3+3.7
Ipswich241.0+3.0
Leeds885.5+2.5
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Chelsea348587632.3−45.3
Tottenham181120.8−9.8
Crystal Palace18614.2−8.2
Liverpool182629.9−3.9
Norwich402.2−2.2
Luton201.5−1.5
Watford834.5−1.5
Cardiff201.2−1.2
Fulham131011.2−1.2
Huddersfield412.1−1.1
Stoke201.0−1.0
Burnley1478.0−1.0

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Chelsea's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27Premier League6465026172.994.670.216
2025-26Premier League38504225262.982.890.242
2024-25Premier League38556323243.362.820.184
2023-24Premier League38545323243.233.680.207
2022-23Premier League38535025292.762.240.210
2021-22Premier League38636122292.892.870.164
2020-21Premier League38585023262.882.470.207
2019-20Premier League38585522163.023.240.228
2018-19Premier League38625821243.022.680.169
2017-18Premier League38626321182.912.630.213

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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