Ukraine, just.
TestedUkraine win about 38 times in 100. The other 62: a draw (30) or a Georgia win (32).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 22:55 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–0: Vesta gave this result 30%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.1 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedGeorgia: 1 or more67%
Georgia: 2 or more30%
Georgia: 3 or more10%
Ukraine: 1 or more71%
Ukraine: 2 or more35%
Ukraine: 3 or more13%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedGeorgia by 3 or more4%
Georgia by 29%
Georgia by 119%
Draw30%
Ukraine by 121%
Ukraine by 211%
Ukraine by 3 or more6%
Result combinations
TestedGeorgia win or draw62%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Ukraine win or draw68%
Clean sheets
TestedGeorgia keep a clean sheet29%
Ukraine keep a clean sheet33%
Georgia win without conceding19%
Ukraine win without conceding23%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateGeorgia score first43%
Ukraine score first47%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Georgia goals down, Ukraine goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Georgia ahead at half-time25%
Level at half-time46%
Ukraine ahead at half-time29%
Georgia win the second half27%
Second half level41%
Ukraine win the second half32%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateGeorgia ahead at half-time, Georgia win18%
Level at half-time, Georgia win12%
Ukraine ahead at half-time, Georgia win2%
Georgia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Ukraine ahead at half-time, draw5%
Georgia ahead at half-time, Ukraine win2%
Level at half-time, Ukraine win14%
Ukraine ahead at half-time, Ukraine win22%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
GeorgiaUkraine
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works