Morocco, clearly.
TestedMorocco win about 79 times in 100. The other 21: a draw (15) or a Mali win (6).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:53 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals58%
Both teams score39%
Expected goals2.4 v 0.6
Most likely score2-015% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals95%
2 or more goals80%
3 or more goals58%
4 or more goals35%
5 or more goals19%
Exactly
0 goals5%
1 goal14%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more goals8%
Goals by team
TestedMorocco: 1 or more91%
Morocco: 2 or more70%
Morocco: 3 or more44%
Mali: 1 or more43%
Mali: 2 or more11%
Mali: 3 or more2%
Both teams score39%
At least one team does not score61%
Winning margin
TestedMorocco by 3 or more34%
Morocco by 223%
Morocco by 122%
Draw15%
Mali by 15%
Mali by 21%
Mali by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedMorocco win or draw94%
Either team wins (no draw)85%
Mali win or draw22%
Clean sheets
TestedMorocco keep a clean sheet57%
Mali keep a clean sheet9%
Morocco win without conceding52%
Mali win without conceding3%
No goals at all5%
The first goal
Model estimateMorocco score first77%
Mali score first18%
No goals5%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1535%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Morocco goals down, Mali goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 1 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 0.3 | · | · |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | · | · |
| 4 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half74%
A goal in the second half80%
Morocco ahead at half-time58%
Level at half-time34%
Mali ahead at half-time8%
Morocco win the second half64%
Second half level28%
Mali win the second half8%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half45%
Same goals in both halves24%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateMorocco ahead at half-time, Morocco win55%
Level at half-time, Morocco win21%
Mali ahead at half-time, Morocco win3%
Morocco ahead at half-time, draw3%
Level at half-time, draw10%
Mali ahead at half-time, draw3%
Morocco ahead at half-time, Mali win0%
Level at half-time, Mali win3%
Mali ahead at half-time, Mali win3%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
MoroccoMali
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works