Italy v Turkey

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Italy

• Pio EspositoForward, started 5 of the last 525%to score
• Moise KeanForward, started 2 of the last 517%to score
• Luca KoleoshoLeft winger, started 2 of the last 513%to score
• Davide FrattesiMidfielder, started 2 of the last 510%to score

Most likely to assist: Pio Esposito 10%, Luca Koleosho 8%

Turkey

• Arda GülerMidfielder, started 5 of the last 59%to score
• Kerem AktürkogluForward, started 2 of the last 58%to score
• Can UzunAttacking midfielder, started 2 of the last 58%to score
• Baris Alper YilmazAttacking midfielder, started 4 of the last 55%to score

Most likely to assist: Arda Güler 13%, Baris Alper Yilmaz 4%

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast. The models learned on club matches, applied to the two national teams' last internationals.

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Italy

Italy: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Pio Esposito	73	25%	4%	10%	33%	1.8
Moise Kean	36	17%	2%	2%	19%	1.4
Luca Koleosho bench	36	13%	<1%	8%	19%	1.0
Davide Frattesi	37	10%	<1%	5%	14%	0.7
Nicolò Cambiaghi bench	25	10%	<1%	4%	13%	0.6
Sebastiano Esposito bench	29	6%	<1%	5%	12%	0.6
Cher Ndour	36	5%	<1%	5%	10%	0.5
Niccolò Pisilli	36	5%	<1%	5%	10%	0.5
Luigi Cherubini bench	13	5%	<1%	2%	7%	0.3
Giorgio Scalvini	41	5%	<1%	3%	7%	0.3
Nicolò Fagioli bench	33	5%	<1%	5%	9%	0.5
Luca Lipani bench	30	4%	<1%	4%	9%	0.4
Riccardo Calafiori bench	36	4%	<1%	4%	8%	0.5
Giacomo Raspadori bench	9	3%	<1%	2%	5%	0.3
Jeff Ekhator bench	9	3%	<1%	<1%	4%	0.2
Nicolò Barella bench	22	3%	<1%	6%	9%	0.3
Sandro Tonali	48	2%	<1%	6%	8%	0.6
Alessandro Romano bench	16	2%	<1%	2%	5%	0.2
Seydou Fini bench	14	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Davide Bartesaghi	36	2%	<1%	3%	5%	0.2
Fabio Chiarodia	36	2%	<1%	3%	5%	0.2
Michael Kayode	36	2%	<1%	3%	5%	0.2
Alessandro Bastoni bench	36	2%	<1%	5%	7%	0.2
Filippo Mané bench	12	2%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Gianluca Mancini bench	18	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.1
Pietro Comuzzo bench	26	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Issa Doumbia bench	9	1%	<1%	1%	3%	0.1
Giovanni Di Lorenzo bench	20	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Luca Reggiani bench	7	1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Daniel Maldini bench	7	1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Costantino Favasuli bench	17	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Matteo Dagasso bench	6	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Antonio Vergara bench	6	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Honest Ahanor bench	9	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0.1
Diego Coppola bench	13	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Matteo Ruggeri bench	18	<1%	<1%	3%	3%	0.1
Gianluigi Donnarumma	90	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0

Turkey

Turkey: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Arda Güler	84	9%	<1%	13%	21%	0.9
Kerem Aktürkoglu bench	40	8%	<1%	2%	10%	0.5
Can Uzun bench	36	8%	<1%	3%	11%	0.5
Baris Alper Yilmaz	70	5%	<1%	4%	9%	0.5
Ismail Yüksek	68	5%	<1%	4%	9%	0.5
Deniz Gül bench	25	5%	<1%	1%	7%	0.3
Oguz Aydin	48	4%	<1%	3%	6%	0.4
Ozan Kabak bench	36	3%	<1%	<1%	4%	0.3
Hakan Calhanoglu bench	22	3%	<1%	2%	5%	0.3
Salih Özcan	42	3%	<1%	2%	6%	0.3
Kenan Yildiz bench	18	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.3
Yunus Akgün bench	30	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Merih Demiral	72	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Abdülkerim Bardakçi	71	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Orkun Kökçü bench	24	2%	<1%	1%	3%	0.2
Mehmet Zeki Çelik	66	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Ferdi Kadioglu	50	1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.2
Eren Elmali	41	1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Bartug Elmaz bench	15	1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Irfan Can Kahveci bench	9	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0.1
Mert Müldür bench	24	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0.1
Ugurcan Çakir	72	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0
Altay Bayindir bench	18	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0