- National teams
- Friendly
United States v Mexico
32%United States
30%Draw
38%Mexico
Mexico, just.
TestedMexico win about 38 times in 100. The other 62: a draw (30) or an United States win (32).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:53 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.1 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedUnited States: 1 or more67%
United States: 2 or more30%
United States: 3 or more10%
Mexico: 1 or more71%
Mexico: 2 or more35%
Mexico: 3 or more13%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedUnited States by 3 or more4%
United States by 29%
United States by 119%
Draw30%
Mexico by 121%
Mexico by 211%
Mexico by 3 or more6%
Result combinations
TestedUnited States win or draw62%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Mexico win or draw68%
Clean sheets
TestedUnited States keep a clean sheet29%
Mexico keep a clean sheet33%
United States win without conceding19%
Mexico win without conceding23%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateUnited States score first42%
Mexico score first47%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: United States goals down, Mexico goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
United States ahead at half-time25%
Level at half-time46%
Mexico ahead at half-time29%
United States win the second half27%
Second half level41%
Mexico win the second half32%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateUnited States ahead at half-time, United States win18%
Level at half-time, United States win12%
Mexico ahead at half-time, United States win2%
United States ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Mexico ahead at half-time, draw5%
United States ahead at half-time, Mexico win2%
Level at half-time, Mexico win14%
Mexico ahead at half-time, Mexico win22%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
United StatesMexico
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works