- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Netherlands v Serbia
78%Netherlands
16%Draw
6%Serbia
Netherlands, clearly.
TestedNetherlands win about 78 times in 100. The other 22: a draw (16) or a Serbia win (6).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:54 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals57%
Both teams score39%
Expected goals2.4 v 0.6
Most likely score2-015% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals94%
2 or more goals80%
3 or more goals57%
4 or more goals35%
5 or more goals18%
Exactly
0 goals6%
1 goal15%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more goals8%
Goals by team
TestedNetherlands: 1 or more91%
Netherlands: 2 or more69%
Netherlands: 3 or more43%
Serbia: 1 or more43%
Serbia: 2 or more11%
Serbia: 3 or more2%
Both teams score39%
At least one team does not score61%
Winning margin
TestedNetherlands by 3 or more33%
Netherlands by 223%
Netherlands by 122%
Draw16%
Serbia by 15%
Serbia by 21%
Serbia by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedNetherlands win or draw94%
Either team wins (no draw)84%
Serbia win or draw22%
Clean sheets
TestedNetherlands keep a clean sheet57%
Serbia keep a clean sheet9%
Netherlands win without conceding51%
Serbia win without conceding4%
No goals at all6%
The first goal
Model estimateNetherlands score first77%
Serbia score first18%
No goals6%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1534%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Netherlands goals down, Serbia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 1 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | · | · |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | · | · |
| 4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half73%
A goal in the second half81%
Netherlands ahead at half-time57%
Level at half-time34%
Serbia ahead at half-time8%
Netherlands win the second half63%
Second half level28%
Serbia win the second half9%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half45%
Same goals in both halves25%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateNetherlands ahead at half-time, Netherlands win54%
Level at half-time, Netherlands win21%
Serbia ahead at half-time, Netherlands win3%
Netherlands ahead at half-time, draw3%
Level at half-time, draw10%
Serbia ahead at half-time, draw3%
Netherlands ahead at half-time, Serbia win0%
Level at half-time, Serbia win3%
Serbia ahead at half-time, Serbia win3%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
NetherlandsSerbia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works