- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Portugal v Norway
62%Portugal
24%Draw
14%Norway
Portugal ahead.
TestedPortugal win about 62 times in 100. The other 38: a draw (24) or a Norway win (14).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:54 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals47%
Both teams score45%
Expected goals1.8 v 0.7
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals73%
3 or more goals47%
4 or more goals26%
5 or more goals12%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal19%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedPortugal: 1 or more84%
Portugal: 2 or more54%
Portugal: 3 or more27%
Norway: 1 or more53%
Norway: 2 or more17%
Norway: 3 or more4%
Both teams score45%
At least one team does not score55%
Winning margin
TestedPortugal by 3 or more17%
Portugal by 219%
Portugal by 125%
Draw24%
Norway by 110%
Norway by 23%
Norway by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedPortugal win or draw86%
Either team wins (no draw)76%
Norway win or draw38%
Clean sheets
TestedPortugal keep a clean sheet47%
Norway keep a clean sheet16%
Portugal win without conceding39%
Norway win without conceding8%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimatePortugal score first65%
Norway score first27%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Portugal goals down, Norway goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half68%
A goal in the second half75%
Portugal ahead at half-time45%
Level at half-time41%
Norway ahead at half-time14%
Portugal win the second half49%
Second half level36%
Norway win the second half15%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimatePortugal ahead at half-time, Portugal win40%
Level at half-time, Portugal win20%
Norway ahead at half-time, Portugal win2%
Portugal ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw15%
Norway ahead at half-time, draw4%
Portugal ahead at half-time, Norway win1%
Level at half-time, Norway win6%
Norway ahead at half-time, Norway win7%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
PortugalNorway
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works