Croatia v Spain

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Croatia

• Ante BudimirForward, started 2 of the last 58%to score
• Igor MatanovicForward, started 1 of the last 58%to score
• Petar SucicAttacking midfielder, started 5 of the last 55%to score
• Mateo KovacicDefensive midfielder, started 5 of the last 55%to score

Most likely to assist: Mateo Kovacic 6%, Petar Sucic 5%

Spain

• Lamine YamalRight winger, started 5 of the last 540%to score
• Mikel OyarzabalForward, started 3 of the last 524%to score
• Dani OlmoAttacking midfielder, started 4 of the last 519%to score
• Ferrán TorresForward, started 1 of the last 513%to score

Most likely to assist: Lamine Yamal 28%, Dani Olmo 18%

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast. The models learned on club matches, applied to the two national teams' last internationals.

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Croatia

Croatia: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Ante Budimir bench	34	8%	<1%	<1%	9%	0.5
Igor Matanovic bench	35	8%	<1%	2%	10%	0.5
Petar Sucic	79	5%	<1%	5%	10%	0.5
Mateo Kovacic	82	5%	<1%	6%	11%	0.5
Nikola Vlasic	45	4%	<1%	2%	6%	0.3
Luka Vuskovic	45	3%	<1%	<1%	4%	0.2
Martin Baturina bench	40	3%	<1%	2%	5%	0.3
Josko Gvardiol	55	3%	<1%	2%	5%	0.2
Franjo Ivanovic bench	34	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Ivan Perisic	86	2%	<1%	3%	5%	0.2
Dion Drena Beljo bench	12	2%	<1%	<1%	3%	0.1
Josip Stanisic	69	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Mario Pasalic bench	27	2%	<1%	3%	4%	0.1
Luka Modric	64	2%	<1%	3%	5%	0.2
Petar Musa bench	9	2%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Mario Pasalic bench	24	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.1
Josip Sutalo	57	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Josip Misic bench	21	1%	<1%	1%	3%	0.1
Marin Pongracic	45	1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Luka Sucic bench	13	1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Ivan Smolcic bench	18	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.1
Kristijan Jakic bench	7	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0
Dominik Livakovic	90	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0

Spain

Spain: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Lamine Yamal	77	40%	9%	28%	57%	3.7
Mikel Oyarzabal	52	24%	3%	9%	30%	1.5
Dani Olmo	60	19%	2%	18%	33%	1.9
Ferrán Torres bench	20	13%	<1%	2%	15%	0.7
Álex Baena	61	11%	<1%	14%	24%	1.3
Fabián Ruiz	53	9%	<1%	7%	15%	0.9
Raúl Fernández bench	18	8%	<1%	2%	10%	0.5
Rodri	73	8%	<1%	9%	16%	0.9
Mikel Merino bench	18	7%	<1%	3%	10%	0.4
Fermín López bench	16	6%	<1%	5%	11%	0.5
Nico Williams bench	20	6%	<1%	3%	9%	0.5
Aymeric Laporte	72	5%	<1%	2%	7%	0.5
Pedri bench	32	4%	<1%	7%	11%	0.4
Marc Cucurella	72	4%	<1%	8%	12%	0.5
Víctor Muñoz bench	13	3%	<1%	1%	4%	0.4
Marc Pubill	36	3%	<1%	2%	5%	0.3
Pau Cubarsí	72	2%	<1%	1%	4%	0.3
Martín Zubimendi bench	17	2%	<1%	<1%	3%	0.2
Pedro Porro bench	35	2%	<1%	4%	5%	0.4
Dean Huijsen bench	18	2%	<1%	<1%	3%	0.2
Yeremi Pino bench	9	1%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Robin Le Normand bench	18	1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Fran García bench	18	1%	<1%	1%	3%	0.1
Iván Fresneda bench	18	1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Unai Simón	72	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0
David Raya bench	18	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0