- National teams
- Friendly
Russia v Nigeria
50%Russia
28%Draw
22%Nigeria
Russia ahead.
TestedRussia win about 50 times in 100. The other 50: a draw (28) or a Nigeria win (22).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:57 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals43%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.5 v 0.9
Most likely score1-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals70%
3 or more goals43%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedRussia: 1 or more77%
Russia: 2 or more44%
Russia: 3 or more19%
Nigeria: 1 or more60%
Nigeria: 2 or more23%
Nigeria: 3 or more6%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedRussia by 3 or more10%
Russia by 215%
Russia by 124%
Draw28%
Nigeria by 115%
Nigeria by 26%
Nigeria by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedRussia win or draw78%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Nigeria win or draw50%
Clean sheets
TestedRussia keep a clean sheet40%
Nigeria keep a clean sheet23%
Russia win without conceding30%
Nigeria win without conceding13%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateRussia score first56%
Nigeria score first35%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Russia goals down, Nigeria goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | · |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half72%
Russia ahead at half-time36%
Level at half-time44%
Nigeria ahead at half-time19%
Russia win the second half40%
Second half level40%
Nigeria win the second half20%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateRussia ahead at half-time, Russia win31%
Level at half-time, Russia win17%
Nigeria ahead at half-time, Russia win2%
Russia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Nigeria ahead at half-time, draw5%
Russia ahead at half-time, Nigeria win1%
Level at half-time, Nigeria win9%
Nigeria ahead at half-time, Nigeria win12%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
RussiaNigeria
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works