- National teams
- Friendly
Argentina v Burkina Faso
97%Argentina
3%Draw
0%Burkina Faso
Argentina, clearly.
TestedArgentina win about 97 times in 100. The other 3: a draw (3) or a Burkina Faso win (0).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:52 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals85%
Both teams score26%
Expected goals4.2 v 0.3
Most likely score4-014% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals99%
2 or more goals95%
3 or more goals85%
4 or more goals69%
5 or more goals51%
Exactly
0 goals1%
1 goal4%
2 goals10%
3 goals16%
4 goals18%
5 goals17%
6 or more goals32%
Goals by team
TestedArgentina: 1 or more99%
Argentina: 2 or more93%
Argentina: 3 or more81%
Burkina Faso: 1 or more27%
Burkina Faso: 2 or more4%
Burkina Faso: 3 or more0%
Both teams score26%
At least one team does not score74%
Winning margin
TestedArgentina by 3 or more74%
Argentina by 213%
Argentina by 17%
Draw3%
Burkina Faso by 10%
Burkina Faso by 20%
Burkina Faso by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedArgentina win or draw99%
Either team wins (no draw)97%
Burkina Faso win or draw3%
Clean sheets
TestedArgentina keep a clean sheet72%
Burkina Faso keep a clean sheet1%
Argentina win without conceding71%
Burkina Faso win without conceding0%
No goals at all1%
The first goal
Model estimateArgentina score first93%
Burkina Faso score first6%
No goals1%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1549%
Minutes 16-3025%
Minutes 31-45+14%
Minutes 46-606%
Minutes 61-753%
Minutes 76-90+2%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Argentina goals down, Burkina Faso goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · | · | · |
| 1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | · | · | · |
| 2 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.4 | · | · | · |
| 3 | 12.8 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 4 | 14.1 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 5 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half88%
A goal in the second half92%
Argentina ahead at half-time82%
Level at half-time16%
Burkina Faso ahead at half-time2%
Argentina win the second half87%
Second half level11%
Burkina Faso win the second half2%
More goals in the first half33%
More goals in the second half48%
Same goals in both halves19%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateArgentina ahead at half-time, Argentina win82%
Level at half-time, Argentina win14%
Burkina Faso ahead at half-time, Argentina win1%
Argentina ahead at half-time, draw1%
Level at half-time, draw2%
Burkina Faso ahead at half-time, draw0%
Argentina ahead at half-time, Burkina Faso win0%
Level at half-time, Burkina Faso win0%
Burkina Faso ahead at half-time, Burkina Faso win0%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
ArgentinaBurkina Faso
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works