- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
England v Czech Republic
90%England
8%Draw
2%Czech Republic
England, clearly.
TestedEngland win about 90 times in 100. The other 10: a draw (8) or a Czech Republic win (2).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:58 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals72%
Both teams score33%
Expected goals3.3 v 0.4
Most likely score3-015% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals97%
2 or more goals89%
3 or more goals72%
4 or more goals51%
5 or more goals32%
Exactly
0 goals3%
1 goal9%
2 goals17%
3 goals21%
4 goals19%
5 goals14%
6 or more goals17%
Goals by team
TestedEngland: 1 or more96%
England: 2 or more84%
England: 3 or more64%
Czech Republic: 1 or more34%
Czech Republic: 2 or more6%
Czech Republic: 3 or more1%
Both teams score33%
At least one team does not score67%
Winning margin
TestedEngland by 3 or more55%
England by 220%
England by 115%
Draw8%
Czech Republic by 12%
Czech Republic by 20%
Czech Republic by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedEngland win or draw98%
Either team wins (no draw)92%
Czech Republic win or draw10%
Clean sheets
TestedEngland keep a clean sheet66%
Czech Republic keep a clean sheet4%
England win without conceding64%
Czech Republic win without conceding1%
No goals at all3%
The first goal
Model estimateEngland score first86%
Czech Republic score first11%
No goals3%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1542%
Minutes 16-3024%
Minutes 31-45+15%
Minutes 46-609%
Minutes 61-755%
Minutes 76-90+3%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: England goals down, Czech Republic goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · | · | · |
| 1 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 3 | 14.6 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 4 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 5 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half82%
A goal in the second half87%
England ahead at half-time71%
Level at half-time24%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time5%
England win the second half77%
Second half level19%
Czech Republic win the second half4%
More goals in the first half33%
More goals in the second half46%
Same goals in both halves22%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateEngland ahead at half-time, England win70%
Level at half-time, England win18%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time, England win2%
England ahead at half-time, draw1%
Level at half-time, draw5%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time, draw1%
England ahead at half-time, Czech Republic win0%
Level at half-time, Czech Republic win1%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time, Czech Republic win1%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
EnglandCzech Republic
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works